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Don't get me wrong, I expect a pull back soon and this correction may be
significant. This period, November-February are historically good months
for the market however so I think after a correction, we will resume some
up-trending.
Bob
At 06:53 PM 11/8/2004 -0500, you wrote:
>Dear Bob,
>
>I agree.
>
>No question in my mind that we are in uncharted waters.
>
>At the same time where were those same investors as the market went
>sideways to down over the last 10 months?
>
>There are some exciting special situations still in the market but I do
>not see them in the overall S&P 500 just to use as a barometer of an index
>that has had somewhat of a breakout.
>
>Current PE reported at 30.5
>
>Price to sales reported at 1.65
>
>Dividend yield reported at 1.5%
>
>Price to book value reported at 2.85
>
>Even with expected growth of 21% in earnings we are in problematic
>historical zones.
>
>Source of info: http://www.stockselector.com/sp500.asp
>
>In March 2003, I jumped in with both feet. At this time I am cautious and
>hopeful that you are right.
>
>Sincerely,
>
>John
>
>
>
> >
> > At 03:34 PM 11/8/2004 -0500, you wrote:
> >
> >
> >>If I look at a chart of the S&P, I see a downward slanting
> >>channeling pattern from MARCH until now with a breakout above the upper
> >> trendline. Same is true for the Dow and the DIA and DJI.
> >>
> >>
> >>It had appeared to me to be in a sideways channeling trend with lower
> >> lows and lower highs which was short term bearish overall. However, in
>the past several days we have a price breakout but on slowing volume which
>I now see as a bearish short term tendency.
> >>
> >>Additionally, my highly defensive portfolio was hitting new highs even
> >> as I increased cash...which I found unusual.
> >>
> >>My point is that I believe there will be a rally suspension with a dip
> >> and then a ride higher. This is a strange market to me.
> >>
> >>Sincerely,
> >>
> >>John
> >
> > Just remember the options the investing public has at its disposal.
>Very, very, few folks will short stocks. Bonds are still paying
>inflation break even returns. Less than 1% of Americans invest in
>futures and mutual funds are rarely allowed to short by their own rules
>and investors in those funds aren't going to sit on cash long before they
>look for a new fund. Common sense dictates that money flow into the only
>source that *might* provide these people with a good return and there is
>a huge percentage of Americans reaching retirement age now who are
>desperate to find a place where they can enhance their holdings enough to
>retire. (Read "Baby Boomers"). No historical chart can match these
>conditions and we are therefore, in "uncharted waters".
> >
> > Bob
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Yahoo! Groups Links
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
>
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