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At 03:34 PM 11/8/2004 -0500, you wrote:
>If I look at a chart of the S&P, I see a downward slanting
>channeling pattern from MARCH until now with a breakout above the
>upper trendline. Same is true for the Dow and the DIA and DJI.
>
>
>It had appeared to me to be in a sideways channeling trend with lower lows
>and lower highs which was short term bearish overall. However, in the
>past several days we have a price breakout but on slowing volume which I
>now see as a bearish short term tendency.
>
>Additionally, my highly defensive portfolio was hitting new highs even as
>I increased cash...which I found unusual.
>
>My point is that I believe there will be a rally suspension with a dip and
>then a ride higher. This is a strange market to me.
>
>Sincerely,
>
>John
Just remember the options the investing public has at its disposal. Very,
very, few folks will short stocks. Bonds are still paying inflation break
even returns. Less than 1% of Americans invest in futures and mutual funds
are rarely allowed to short by their own rules and investors in those funds
aren't going to sit on cash long before they look for a new fund. Common
sense dictates that money flow into the only source that *might* provide
these people with a good return and there is a huge percentage of Americans
reaching retirement age now who are desperate to find a place where they
can enhance their holdings enough to retire. (Read "Baby Boomers"). No
historical chart can match these conditions and we are therefore, in
"uncharted waters".
Bob
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