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----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, November 06, 2004 1:43 PM
Subject: 11/6 Report
Technical market report for November 6,
2004
The good news
is:
- As of last Friday the S&P 500 (SPX) had
been up for 9 consecutive trading days.
That is an uncommon occurrence that implies a strong
market.
- All of the short and intermediate indicators
are heading sharply upward.
- The secondaries have continued to outperform
the blue chips.
The red line on the chart below represents the
SPX; the blue line shows the percentage of the last 9 trading days that it has
been up; the dashed vertical red lines are drawn on the first trading day of the
year (the chart covers 16 years).
The indicator (blue line) reaches the top of the screen when the index
has been up for 9 consecutive days.
The indicator touched the top of the screen Friday (not apparent on the
chart below) and several other times in the past 16 years. Usually after 9 consecutive up days the
index has paused for a few weeks before continuing to move
upward.
The last time the SPX was up for 9 consecutive
trading days was June 17, 1997. The
chart below shows that period and what happened during the following month. The time before that was September 14,
1995 (not shown), the market was flat for about two months before resuming its
upward move.
The chart below shows the Russell 2000 (R2K) in
red, the SPX in green and Accutrack (a FastTrack relative strength indicator) as
a histogram in yellow. Although it
has lost some strength from its early October high, Accutrack has remained
positive implying the secondaries (R2K) have been outperforming the blue chips
(SPX).
Seasonally, next week is neutral on average; but
in the 4th year of the presidential cycle, which we are in now, it
has been slightly negative.
The
number following the year represents its position in the presidential cycle.
The number following the daily loss or gain represents its position in
the week.
1 = Monday, 2 = Tuesday etc.
The column days
represent Monday through Friday next
week.
R2K
Day1
Day2
Day3
Day4
Day5
1988-4
0.35%-2 -0.32%-3 0.14%-4 -0.92%-5 -0.53%-1
1989-1
0.85%-3 -0.08%-4 0.34%-5 -0.07%-1 -0.15%-2
1990-2 -0.17%-4 0.96%-5 1.59%-1 0.34%-2 0.88%-3
1991-3
0.27%-5 0.26%-1 0.66%-2 0.01%-3 -0.12%-4
1992-4
0.80%-1 0.70%-2 1.13%-3 -0.07%-4 0.32%-5
1993-1
0.58%-1 0.48%-2 0.47%-3 0.21%-4 0.16%-5
1994-2
0.11%-2 -0.17%-3 -0.44%-4 -0.48%-5 0.32%-1
1995-3
0.28%-3 0.55%-4 0.12%-5 -0.24%-1 -0.69%-2
1996-4
0.08%-5 0.33%-1 0.12%-2 -0.01%-3 0.33%-4
1997-1
0.04%-1 -0.45%-2 -2.30%-3 -0.01%-4 1.19%-5
1998-2 -0.47%-1 -0.39%-2 -0.85%-3 -0.32%-4 -0.72%-5
1999-3
0.60%-1 0.27%-2 0.55%-3 -0.27%-4 0.49%-5
2000-4 -1.05%-3 -1.07%-4 -2.91%-5 -0.91%-1 2.18%-2
2001-1 -0.39%-4 -0.22%-5 0.54%-1 1.78%-2 1.00%-3
2002-2 -1.08%-5 -2.60%-1 1.50%-2 0.38%-3 2.69%-4
2003-3 -1.80%-1 -0.87%-2 2.29%-3 0.10%-4 -1.52%-5
Averages -0.06% -0.16% 0.18% -0.03% 0.36%
Winners 62% 44% 75% 37% 62%
Presidential
year 4
Day1
Day2
Day3
Day4
Day5
1988-4 0.35%
2 -0.32% 3 0.14% 4 -0.92% 5 -0.53% 1
1992-4 0.80%
1 0.70% 2 1.13% 3 -0.07% 4 0.32% 5
1996-4 0.08%
5 0.33% 1 0.12% 2 -0.01% 3 0.33% 4
2000-4 -1.05% 3 -1.07% 4 -2.91% 5 -0.91% 1 2.18% 2
Averages 0.04% -0.09% -0.38% -0.48% 0.58%
Winners 75% 50% 75%
0%
75%
SPX
Day1
Day2 Day3 Day4 Day5
1988-4
0.45%-2 -0.66%-3 0.13%-4 -2.11%-5 -0.07%-1
1989-1
1.00%-3 -0.47%-4 0.75%-5 0.13%-1 -0.46%-2
1990-2
0.52%-4 1.99%-5 1.83%-1 -0.57%-2 0.86%-3
1991-3 -0.21%-5 0.06%-1 0.92%-2 0.17%-3 -0.05%-4
1992-4
0.24%-1 0.01%-2 0.86%-3 0.16%-4 -0.10%-5
1993-1
0.14%-1 0.03%-2 0.74%-3 -0.23%-4 0.59%-5
1994-2
0.56%-2 -0.05%-3 -0.23%-4 -0.44%-5 0.80%-1
1995-3
0.92%-3 0.26%-4 -0.09%-5 -0.07%-1 -0.51%-2
1996-4
0.44%-5 0.14%-1 -0.32%-2 0.22%-3 0.65%-4
1997-1 -0.69%-1 0.29%-2 -1.93%-3 1.18%-4 1.28%-5
1998-2 -0.95%-1 -0.17%-2 -0.65%-3 -0.29%-4 0.72%-5
1999-3
0.49%-1 -0.82%-2 0.57%-3 0.58%-4 1.06%-5
2000-4 -1.58%-3 -0.65%-4 -2.44%-5 -1.08%-1 2.35%-2
2001-1
0.25%-4 0.16%-5 -0.18%-1 1.86%-2 0.19%-3
2002-2 -0.88%-5 -2.07%-1 0.77%-2 -0.05%-3 2.46%-4
2003-3 -0.58%-1 -0.05%-2 1.15%-3 -0.01%-4 -0.76%-5
Averages 0.01% -0.13% 0.12% -0.03% 0.56%
Winners 62% 50% 56% 44% 62%
Presidential Year 4
Day1
Day2
Day3
Day4
Day5
1988-4 0.45%
2 -0.66% 3 0.13% 4 -2.11% 5 -0.07% 1
1992-4 0.24%
1 0.01% 2 0.86% 3 0.16% 4 -0.10% 5
1996-4 0.44%
5 0.14% 1 -0.32% 2 0.22% 3 0.65% 4
2000-4 -1.58% 3 -0.65% 4 -2.44% 5 -1.08% 1 2.35% 2
Averages -0.11% -0.29% -0.44% -0.70% 0.70%
Winners 75% 50% 50% 50% 50%
Everything that matters is strong, but nine
consecutive up days is a little too much of a good thing.
Seasonally, the second week in November has been neutral to slightly
negative.
A strong move either way is
unlikely.
I expect the major indices to be lower on Friday
November 12 than they were on Friday November
5.
This report is free to anyone who wants it, so
please tell your friends.
They can sign up
at:
http://www.guaranteed-profits.com
If it is not for you, reply with
REMOVE in the subject line.
Thank you,
Mike Burk
W21/L17/T6
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