|
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, October 30, 2004 9:39 AM
Subject: 10/30 Report
Technical market report for October 30,
2004
The good news
is:
- With exceptions in the energy group virtually
every short and intermediate term indicator in every sector turned upward last
week.
Summation indices (SI) are a running total of
oscillator values. When an
oscillator is above 0 it’s SI rises when it is below 0 it’s SI falls. The direction of SI’s offers a good
intermediate term indicator of market direction.
The chart below
shows the NASDAQ composite along with SI’s of oscillators calculated from
advancing – declining issues, new highs and new lows and advancing - declining
volume. All of SI’s turned upward
last week.
The energy group offers a break from the tedium
of chart after chart pointing upward.
The chart below shows the
same indicators as the one above, except they are calculated from the component
issues of the Amex Oil Index (XOI).
New high and new low data were calculated over the trailing 6 weeks
rather than 52 weeks as reported by the exchanges. The energy sector was the only negative
exception.
This time of year the market often gets into a
rhythm of rising around the end of the month and falling during the middle of
the month. The two charts below
show the NASDAQ composite along with an indicator showing momentum of NASDAQ new
highs. The indicator does a good
job of exaggerating that monthly rhythm.
The charts both cover 6 months, the first ends last Friday while the
second shows last year through the end of the year. I moved the second chart two months to
the right so that July – October line up.
If the pattern holds, there should be weakness the second and third weeks
of November, a Thanksgiving rally into December then weakness in early December
followed by the Santa Claus rally beginning just before
Christmas.
Seasonally the first 5 trading days of November
are strong, but in the 4th year of the presidential cycle the average
gain has been only about half of that during all years
combined.
First
5 days of November.
The number following the daily return
represents the day of the week;
1 = Monday, 2 = Tuesday etc.
The Number following the year is its position in the 4 year
presidential
cycle.
R2K
Day1
Day2
Day3
Day4
Day5
Totals
1988-4 -0.03% 2 -0.16% 3 0.11% 4 -0.60% 5 -1.02% 1 -1.70%
1989-1 0.21%
3 -0.34% 4 0.08% 5 -0.97% 1 0.02% 2 -1.00%
1990-2 0.08%
4 1.20% 5 0.79% 1 0.01% 2 -0.78% 3 1.29%
1991-3
-0.19% 5 -0.41% 1 0.05% 2 0.22% 3 0.78% 4 0.45%
1992-4 0.50%
1 -0.14% 2 -0.04% 3 0.61% 4 0.39% 5 1.33%
1993-1 0.12%
1 0.26% 2 -1.18% 3 -1.56% 4 0.00% 5 -2.35%
1994-2
-0.60% 2 0.11% 3 0.16% 4 -0.55% 5 -0.36% 1 -1.25%
1995-3 0.49%
3 1.11% 4 0.60% 5 0.05% 1 -0.49% 2 1.75%
1996-4
-0.24% 5 0.04% 1 -0.01% 2 0.76% 3 0.54% 4 1.09%
1997-1 1.78%
1 0.30% 2 0.55% 3 -0.43% 4 -1.72% 5 0.48%
1998-2 2.29%
1 0.19% 2 1.39% 3 0.97% 4 0.89% 5 5.74%
1999-3 0.74%
1 0.13% 2 1.40% 3 0.33% 4 0.57% 5 3.18%
2000-4
-0.50% 3 2.38% 4 0.15% 5 -0.75% 1 0.41% 2 1.69%
2001-1 1.57%
4 -0.42% 5 1.03% 1 1.20% 2 -0.45% 3 2.93%
2002-2 2.66%
5 0.92% 1 -0.23% 2 1.73% 3 -2.44% 4 2.64%
2003-3 1.82%
1 0.19% 2 0.01% 3 0.75% 4 0.00% 5 2.77%
Averages
0.67%
0.34%
0.30%
0.11%
-0.24% 1.19%
Winners 69% 69% 75% 63% 53%
75%
Presidential year breakdown
Year 4
Day1
Day2
Day3
Day4
Day5
Totals
1988-4 -0.03% 2 -0.16% 3 0.11% 4 -0.60% 5 -1.02% 1 -1.70%
1992-4 0.50%
1 -0.14% 2 -0.04% 3 0.61% 4 0.39% 5 1.33%
1996-4
-0.24% 5 0.04% 1 -0.01% 2 0.76% 3 0.54% 4 1.09%
2000-4 -0.50% 3 2.38% 4 0.15% 5 -0.75% 1 0.41% 2 1.69%
Averages
-0.07%
0.53%
0.05%
0.01%
0.08%
0.60%
Winners 25% 50% 50% 50% 75%
75%
SPX
Day1
Day2
Day3
Day4 Day5 Totals
1988-4 0.03%
2 0.00% 3 0.05% 4 -1.04% 5 -0.86% 1 -1.81%
1989-1 0.25%
3 -0.80% 4 -0.25% 5 -1.48% 1 0.66% 2 -1.63%
1990-2 0.99%
4 1.57% 5 0.88% 1 -0.94% 2 -1.80% 3 0.70%
1991-3
-0.29% 5 -0.27% 1 -0.40% 2 0.32% 3 0.96% 4 0.33%
1992-4 0.97%
1 -0.67% 2 -0.67% 3 0.29% 4 -0.18% 5 -0.25%
1993-1 0.27%
1 -0.14% 2 -1.16% 3 -1.19% 4 0.45% 5 -1.77%
1994-2
-0.83% 2 -0.41% 3 0.30% 4 -1.20% 5 0.17% 1 -1.97%
1995-3 0.47%
3 0.94% 4 0.14% 5 -0.36% 1 -0.36% 2 0.83%
1996-4
-0.21% 5 0.42% 1 1.05% 2 1.46% 3 0.42% 4 3.14%
1997-1 2.66%
1 0.19% 2 0.21% 3 -0.50% 4 -1.12% 5 1.44%
1998-2 1.18%
1 -0.07% 2 0.70% 3 1.36% 4 0.63% 5 3.80%
1999-3
-0.65% 1 -0.47% 2 0.53% 3 0.57% 4 0.56% 5 0.54%
2000-4
-0.57% 3 0.50% 4 -0.11% 5 0.39% 1 -0.02% 2 0.18%
2001-1 2.29%
4 0.29% 5 1.44% 1 1.45% 2 -0.27% 3 5.20%
2002-2 1.72% 5 0.82% 1 0.78% 2 0.91% 3 -2.29% 4 1.94%
2003-3 0.79%
1 -0.54% 2 -0.14% 3 0.59% 4 -0.46% 5 0.25%
Averages
0.57%
0.09%
0.21%
0.04%
-0.22% 0.68%
Winners 69% 47% 63% 56% 44%
69%
Presidential year breakdown
Year 4
SPX
Day1
Day2
Day3
Day4
Day5
Totals
1988-4 0.03%
2 0.00% 3 0.05% 4 -1.04% 5 -0.86% 1 -1.81%
1992-4 0.97%
1 -0.67% 2 -0.67% 3 0.29% 4 -0.18% 5 -0.25%
1996-4
-0.21% 5 0.42% 1 1.05% 2 1.46% 3 0.42% 4 3.14%
2000-4
-0.57% 3 0.50% 4 -0.11% 5 0.39% 1 -0.02% 2 0.18%
Averages
0.05%
0.08%
0.08%
0.28%
-0.16% 0.31%
Winners 50% 67% 50% 75% 25%
50%
Every broad market indicator that matters turned
upward last week and seasonally the first week in November has been strong.
I expect the major indices to be higher on Friday
November 5 than they were on Friday October
29.
This report is free to anyone who wants it, so
please tell your friends.
They can sign up
at:
http://www.guaranteed-profits.com
If it is not for you, reply with
REMOVE in the subject line.
Thank you,
Mike Burk
W20/L17/T6
---
Outgoing mail is
certified Virus Free.
Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
Version: 6.0.786 /
Virus Database: 532 - Release Date: 10/30/2004
| Yahoo! Groups Sponsor |
ADVERTISEMENT
![click here]() | |
![]() |
Yahoo! Groups Links
|