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Dear Dr Pisani:
Rather sobering forecast of $14,000 per capita income down the road, given
the current trend. As you stated, the standard and cost of living in India
and China will rise to meet the downward spiral of the same in the US and
many Western countries. Already the per capita income in states like
Mississipi and West Virginia hover around $22,000 or so.
What is at peril is the excessive and conspicuous consumption model of the
American populace. Lower earnings, lower purchasing power of the once
almighty dollar will bring on even more need for cheaper and cheaper goods
and services. When you factor in cost of energy, which is bound to move
constantly in northerly direction, discretionary dollars are going to be in
dire short supply. Would this not result in a drastic reduction of the US
GDP, shifting the burden of conspicuous consumption to the odd couple of
billion Chinese and Indians - relegating the US ...dare I say it - to the
third world status - whose exports will be agricultural products and basic
raw material like timber etc., thanks to the still considerable wealth in
natural resources. A third-world Super Power???
With technological edge slipping away, even in areas like medical research
and drug development, it is my fervent hope that the agricultural and water
resources will be carefully managed from now on. In addition, I think the
salvation of the future of United States may very well depend on space
exploration and exploitation of heavenly bodies for sources of raw material,
energy and as yet unknown - wealth benefical to mankind - perhaps
colonization, even.
Perhaps quality will return such that it will be cheaper to "repair" rather
than "replace". Now the norm is in throwing away and the system of built-in
obsolescence to ensure ever-growing unit sales. A service economy may emergy
creating a new cadre of middle class, enjoying a reasonably comforable
standard of living.
Sorry for the ramble. My own advice to young people seeking a career has
been to choose one which requires immediate human contact ...such as
healthcare.
Do you have a solution to avert the catastrophic restructuring that you
forecast? Thank you for the throught provoking analysis.
Geo
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