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----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, September 25, 2004 9:57 AM
Subject: 9/25 Report
Technical market report for September 25,
2004
The good news
is:
- The weakness of the past week appears to be
nothing more than an overdue rest for the
market.
- On Friday, a down day for the NASDAQ
composite, new highs increased and new lows decreased. A very positive
condition
On the other hand, the recent soft patch does
not appear to be over. The chart
below shows the Russell 2000 (R2K) in red and an indicator showing momentum of
new lows subtracted from momentum of new highs. New highs and new lows have been
calculated from the component issues of the R2K over the past 6 weeks rather
than the past 52 weeks as reported by the exchanges.
The indicator
which usually heads upward a little ahead of price lows is still heading sharply
downward.
Another indicator that has been doing a pretty
good job of forecasting turning points this year is momentum of the McClellan
oscillator. In the chart below the
McClellan oscillator is calculated from component issues of the S&P 500
(SPX). This indicator is also
headed sharply downward.
Since the low in late March each successive (and
lower) price high has generated more new highs in the component issues of the
SPX. The chart below shows the SPX
in red and a 10% trend of new highs of the component issues of the SPX. New highs have been calculated over the
trailing 6 weeks rather than 52 weeks as reported by the exchanges. I have drawn a crude line across the
tops of this indicator to show the uptrend. Building new highs suggests the
downtrend should be broken soon.
The seasonal bias for next week is slightly
positive and favors the blue chips over the small
caps.
Last
4 days of September and first day of October.
The number following
the daily return represents the day of the week;
1= Monday, 2 = Tuesday etc.
The number following the year is its position in the presidential
cycle.
R2K
Day4
Day3
Day2
Day1
Day1
Totals
1988-4 -0.24% 2 0.14% 3 0.69% 4 0.74% 5 -0.87% 1 0.46%
1989-1 0.26%
2 -0.12% 3 0.65% 4 0.47% 5 0.35% 1 1.61%
1990-2 0.11%
2 -1.43% 3 -1.92% 4 0.44% 5 1.33% 1 -1.48%
1991-3
-0.04% 3 0.09% 4 -0.25% 5 0.82% 1 -0.03% 2 0.59%
1992-4
-1.05% 5 -0.21% 1 0.12% 2 1.15% 3 -0.81% 4 -0.81%
1993-1
0.50% 1 0.28% 2 0.33% 3 0.57% 4 0.02% 5 1.70%
1994-2
-0.06% 2 0.52% 3 -0.09% 4 0.76% 5 -0.52% 1 0.62%
1995-3
-0.39% 2 -1.01% 3 0.85% 4 0.62% 5 -1.09% 1 -1.01%
1996-4 0.31%
3 0.37% 4 0.15% 5 0.25% 1 -0.31% 2 0.78%
1997-1
-0.15% 4 0.21% 5 0.54% 1 0.56% 2 0.19% 3 1.36%
1998-2
-0.33% 5 -0.27% 1 -0.60% 2 -0.60% 3 -3.73% 4 -5.54%
1999-3 1.14%
1 -0.80% 2 0.72% 3 1.37% 4 -0.88% 5 1.56%
2000-4
-1.07% 2 -0.35% 3 3.09% 4 -0.47% 5 -1.86% 1 -0.65%
2001-1 0.61%
2 -1.61% 3 0.81% 4 3.03% 5 -1.80% 1 1.04%
2002-2 2.40%
3 1.52% 4 -2.40% 5 0.14% 1 1.61% 2 3.26%
2003-3
-2.52% 4 -1.97% 5 1.53% 1 -1.02% 2 2.59% 3 -1.39%
Averages
-0.03%
-0.29%
0.26%
0.55%
-0.36% 0.13%
Winners 44% 44% 69% 81% 38%
63%
SPX
Day4
Day3
Day2
Day1
Day1
Totals
1988-4 -0.23% 2 0.31% 3 1.30% 4 -0.25% 5 -0.19% 1 0.94%
1989-1 0.03%
2 0.22% 3 1.01% 4 0.16% 5 0.49% 1 1.92%
1990-2 1.20%
2 -1.04% 3 -1.34% 4 1.69% 5 2.90% 1 3.42%
1991-3
-0.21% 3 -0.10% 4 -0.15% 5 0.51% 1 0.35% 2 0.39%
1992-4
-0.98% 5 0.55% 1 0.04% 2 0.24% 3 -0.36% 4 -0.51%
1993-1 0.91%
1 -0.06% 2 -0.31% 3 -0.26% 4 0.51% 5 0.80%
1994-2 0.27%
2 0.60% 3 -0.56% 4 0.10% 5 -0.21% 1 0.20%
1995-3 -0.07% 2 -0.06% 3 0.83% 4 -0.25% 5 -0.46% 1 -0.01%
1996-4 0.03%
3 0.00% 4 0.05% 5 0.16% 1 0.26% 2 0.51%
1997-1
-0.70% 4 0.78% 5 0.86% 1 -0.64% 2 0.86% 3 1.17%
1998-2 0.19%
5 0.38% 1 0.03% 2 -3.05% 3 -3.01% 4 -5.46%
1999-3 0.47%
1 -0.09% 2 -1.08% 3 1.13% 4 0.01% 5 0.44%
2000-4
-0.82% 2 -0.04% 3 2.22% 4 -1.49% 5 -0.02% 1 -0.16%
2001-1 0.88%
2 -0.52% 3 1.15% 4 2.19% 5 -0.23% 1 3.47%
2002-2 2.49%
3 1.82% 4 -3.23% 5 -1.46% 1 4.00% 2 3.62%
2003-3
-0.61% 4 -0.64% 5 0.98% 1 -1.05% 2 2.23% 3 0.91%
Averages
0.18%
0.13%
0.11%
-0.14%
0.45%
0.73%
Winners 56% 50% 63% 50% 56%
75%
The pullback that began last week
does not appear to be complete.
I expect the major indices to be lower on Friday
October 1 than they were on Friday September
24.
This report is free to anyone who wants it, so
please tell your friends.
They can sign up
at:
http://www.guaranteed-profits.com
If it is not for you, reply with
REMOVE in the subject line.
Thank you,
Mike Burk
W18/L14/T5
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