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The only scenario which I see sending oil back to $28 is a global economic
recession and I rate the probability of that as being high. I think it would
take a global depression to get back to $18. While crude is very extended, the
fact is that Asia is importing more and OPEC had it right when they said they
were out of production capacity ... another million barrels from SA will make
little difference if the global economy continues to hum.
Are you referring to the figures from the household survey or other
statistics from the employer survey?
Earl
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Mr. Kevin B.
Bantz
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, August 08, 2004 10:59
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P
update - $18 crude oil
Behind the scenes the divergences show up in Unleaded and
Natural Gas Vs. Crude. On Tuesday I expect another Fed Funds target
hikeand two more after that for this year, taking our target rate above
the ECBs, which fundamentally will make the US$ more attractive than the
Euro.I expect crude to be in the $33 area by Halloween and making the
round turn to $28 in 2005/6. Did you know Russia produced 50% more oil back in
79-80?After 24 years of watching markets, I tend to put gut instinct
first when listening to the markets and Friday was a treat. Sometimes one has
to look inwardsto see out, So behind the scenes from the BLS, Total employment rose by 629,000 to 139.7 million
in July, and the employment population ratio--the proportion of the population
age 16 and over with jobs--increased to 62.5 percent. The civilian labor force
also increased over the month, rising by 577,000 to 147.9 million, and the
labor force participation rate rose to 66.2 percent.
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