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Bear market $18 crude oil....will we see that in our lifetime ?
> -----Original Message-----
> From: topos8 [mailto:topos8@xxxxxxx]
> Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004 10:32 AM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P update
>
>
> --- In gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "topos8" <topos8@xxxx> wrote:
> I last updated my bond and stock forecasts in GG# 26884, May 13, 2004.
>
> At the moment my square of 9 calculations say that the S&P's will
> make a low at 1055 this week and then rally to or above the 1200
> level.
>
> The market has completed the three peaks part of a George Lindsay
> style, "three peaks and a domed house formation" (March, April and
> June are the three peaks in the S&P) and the current break is the
> separating decline. Normally the subsequent rally that traces out the
> domed house part of the pattern ends the bull market and also ends
> what Lindsay called a basic advance. However, my calculations using
> Linday's guidelines say that the current basic advance began in March
> 2003 and is likely to last into the second half of 2005. Even an 8
> month rally (the typical duration of a "domed house" rally) from a
> low now would not last into the second half of 2005.
>
> I think this conflict will be resolved in one of two ways.
>
> The first way is the pattern I have been expecting for the past year.
> In this pattern the March top is iself only the first peak of a
> larger three peaks formation that lasts through the end of 2004; in
> this scenario the second peak still lies ahead (early November 2004
> and about 1250 in the S&P?) and the third peak (January 2005 ?) will
> be lower than the second. After the third peak in January 2005 the
> separating decline will carry to 1075 in the S&P and last 1-3 months
> from the third peak. After the 1075 low we then will see a domed
> house rally that carries the S&P up to 1350 in the fall of 2005.
>
> The second resolution is becoming more and more likely given the
> degree of pessism I currently think I see in public investment
> perceptions. In this scenario, the market rallies to 1350 in April-
> June of 2005, then goes into a 6 month trading range (something like
> March-September 2000) and then begins a new bear market.
>
> In either scenario I expect the next bear market to extend through
> most of 2006 and carry the S&P from about 1350 down into the 850-950
> range.
>
> In my May 13 message I said that the bonds were about to begin a
> rally from the 103 level in the futures that would last 4-8 weeks and
> carry the market up no more that 6 points. In the event we have seen
> a rally that has carried the market up nearly nine points over a 12
> week span.
>
> I now think that this bond rally is nearly over. I can see the bonds
> moving up a bit more into the 112-00 to 112-16 range(vs. a high of
> 111-26 yesterday) but first the market will probably drop to 109-08.
> The 10 year notes reached the 113-10 level yesterday and have the
> potential to get to get up to 114-16. First they will probably drop
> to 111-16. The next big downleg will probably carry the bonds down
> into the 100-102 range and that may well be the bear market low for
> bonds. The notes will drop to 104 but I think lower lows for the
> notes will evntually be seen as the yield curve continues to flatten
> substantially.
>
> I thought crude would top in the $41-42 range in May but all we got
> was a break to $35. I now think that the bull market high will occur
> in the $45-47 range and that the next bear market will carry down to
> $18.
>
> Carl
> --- End forwarded message ---
>
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> Yahoo! Groups Links
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