|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
----- Original Message -----
From: <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk ; <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
To: <A title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
Sent: Saturday, July 31, 2004 9:53 AM
Subject: 7/31 Report
<A
name=OLE_LINK4><A
name=OLE_LINK1><SPAN
><SPAN
>Technical market report for July 31,
2004
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>The good news
is:
<LI class=MsoNormal
><SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>New lows dried up last
week.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>New lows are the single best indicator for
assessing market risk. After a
price low, new lows diminish quickly.
The new low indicator is a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of new lows plotted on
an inverted Y axis so that an increasing number of new lows moves the indicator
downward. A rule of thumb that
works pretty well is: Market risk is minimal after the new low indicator has
been heading upward for 5 consecutive
days.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>The chart below shows that we are not there yet,
but we have a good start. The
indicator has been heading upward for 2 consecutive days and last week NASDAQ
new lows dropped from 223 on Monday to 56 on Friday, NYSE new lows dropped from
91 to 24 over the same period.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><v:shapetype id=_x0000_t75
coordsize="21600,21600" o:spt="75" o:preferrelative="t"
path="m@x@5l@x@11@x@11@x@5xe" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:stroke
joinstyle="miter"><v:f
eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"><v:f
eqn="sum 0 0 @1"><v:f
eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"><v:f
eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"><v:f
eqn="prod @6 1 2"><v:f
eqn="sum @8 21600 0"><v:f
eqn="sum @10 21600 0"><v:path o:extrusionok="f"
gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"><o:lock v:ext="edit"
aspectratio="t"><v:shape id=_x0000_i1025
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="OTC-NL"><IMG
src="gif00202.gif">
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>The secondaries usually lead the blue chips both
up and down.The chart below shows the Russell 2000 (R2K) and the
S&P 500 (SPX) along with a FastTrack relative strength indicator called
Accutrack. The R2K led the decline
downward and is now leading the recovery
upward.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><v:shape id=_x0000_i1026
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="FT-R2K-SPX"><IMG
src="gif00203.gif">
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>A summation index (SI) is a running total of
oscillator values. When the
oscillator is positive its SI rises, when the oscillator is negative its SI
falls. SI’s do not lead, but do a
good job of smoothing the often violent action of oscillators.<SPAN
> The chart below is typical
of many broad based price indexes this week.<SPAN
> It shows 3 SI’s, the underlying
oscillators are calculated from advancing – declining issues, new highs – new
lows and upside – downside volume.
The data is limited to the component issues of the R2K and new highs and
new lows have been calculated over the past 6 weeks rather than the past 52
weeks as reported by the exchanges.
The downward movement of the Volume and Advance – Decline SI’s has been
arrested by last weeks rally, but the High – Low SI is still heading
downward.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><v:shape id=_x0000_i1027
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="R2K-All-Si's"><IMG
src="gif00204.gif">
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
> Seasonally the first few trading days of
the month are usually positive, August is an
exception.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>First
5 trading days of August.The number following the daily return
represents the day of the week;1 = Monday, 2 = Tuesday etc.<BR
clear=all>The number following the year is its position in the presidential
cycle R2K<SPAN
>
Day1
Day2
Day3
Day4
Day5
Totals1989-1<SPAN
> -0.17% 2<SPAN
> 0.10% 3<SPAN
> 0.56% 4<SPAN
> 0.01% 5<SPAN
> 0.70% 1<SPAN
> 1.19%<BR
clear=all>1990-2
-0.46% 3 -1.36% 4<SPAN
> -2.67% 5<SPAN
> -3.46% 1<SPAN
> 0.13% 2<SPAN
> -7.81%<BR
clear=all>1991-3
-0.02% 4 0.17% 5<SPAN
> -0.32% 1<SPAN
> 0.24% 2<SPAN
> 0.09% 3<SPAN
> 0.16%<BR
clear=all>1992-4<SPAN
> 0.31%
1 0.03% 2<SPAN
> -0.48% 3<SPAN
> -0.54% 4<SPAN
> 0.01% 5<SPAN
> -0.67%<BR
clear=all>1993-1<SPAN
> 0.30%
1 0.27% 2<SPAN
> 0.30% 3<SPAN
> -0.13% 4<SPAN
> 0.21% 5<SPAN
> 0.95%<BR
clear=all>1994-2<SPAN
> 0.41%
1 0.24% 2<SPAN
> 0.04% 3<SPAN
> -0.39% 4<SPAN
> -0.25% 5<SPAN
> 0.06%<BR
clear=all>1995-3
-0.46% 2 -0.17% 3<SPAN
> -0.19% 4<SPAN
> 0.34% 5<SPAN
> 0.29% 1<SPAN
> -0.19%<BR
clear=all>1996-4<SPAN
> 1.08%
4 1.56% 5<SPAN
> 0.10% 1<SPAN
> 0.17% 2<SPAN
> 0.69% 3<SPAN
> 3.61%<BR
clear=all>1997-1
-0.07% 5<SPAN
> 0.34% 1<SPAN
> 0.65% 2<SPAN
> 0.58% 3<SPAN
> -0.14% 4<SPAN
> 1.36%<BR
clear=all>1998-2
-1.52% 1 -2.84% 2<SPAN
> -0.73% 3<SPAN
> 1.99% 4<SPAN
> 2.26% 5<SPAN
> -0.85%<BR
clear=all>1999-3
-0.48% 1 -1.43% 2<SPAN
> -1.51% 3<SPAN
> 0.01% 4<SPAN
> -0.40% 5<SPAN
> -3.81%<BR
clear=all>2000-4
-0.57% 2 0.49% 3<SPAN
> -0.15% 4<SPAN
> 0.84% 5<SPAN
> 1.24% 1<SPAN
> 1.84%<BR
clear=all>2001-1<SPAN
> 0.92%
3 -0.05% 4<SPAN
> -0.38% 5<SPAN
> -1.27% 1<SPAN
> -0.13% 2<SPAN
> -0.91%<BR
clear=all>2002-2
-0.82% 4 -3.28% 5<SPAN
> -2.48% 1<SPAN
> 3.72% 2<SPAN
> 0.70% 3<SPAN
> -2.15%<BR
clear=all>2003-3
-1.67% 5 -0.71% 1<SPAN
> -1.57% 2<SPAN
> -0.77% 3<SPAN
> -0.03% 4<SPAN
> -4.75%<BR
clear=all>Averages
-0.21%
-0.44%
-0.59%
0.09%
0.36%
-0.80%<SPAN
> Winners<SPAN
> 33%<SPAN
> 53%<SPAN
> 33%<SPAN
> 60%<SPAN
> 67%<SPAN
>
47%SPX<SPAN
>
Day1
Day2
Day3
Day4
Day5
Totals1989-1<SPAN
> -0.67% 2<SPAN
> 0.17% 3<SPAN
> 0.12% 4<SPAN
> -0.24% 5<SPAN
> 1.60% 1<SPAN
> 0.97%<BR
clear=all>1990-2
-0.18% 3 -1.14% 4<SPAN
> -1.88% 5<SPAN
> -3.02% 1<SPAN
> 0.12% 2<SPAN
> -6.10%<BR
clear=all>1991-3
-0.18% 4 0.02% 5<SPAN
> -0.55% 1<SPAN
> 1.44% 2<SPAN
> -0.02% 3<SPAN
> 0.72%<BR
clear=all>1992-4<SPAN
> 0.21%
1 -0.17% 2<SPAN
> -0.51% 3<SPAN
> -0.38% 4<SPAN
> -0.41% 5<SPAN
> -1.26%<BR
clear=all>1993-1<SPAN
> 0.45%
1 -0.20% 2<SPAN
> -0.16% 3 <SPAN
> -0.09% 4<SPAN
> 0.12% 5<SPAN
> 0.12%<BR
clear=all>1994-2<SPAN
> 0.60%
1 -0.10% 2<SPAN
> 0.20% 3<SPAN
> -0.66% 4<SPAN
> -0.29% 5<SPAN
> -0.25%<BR
clear=all>1995-3
-0.43% 2 -0.15% 3<SPAN
> -0.01% 4<SPAN
> 0.03% 5<SPAN
> 0.20% 1<SPAN
> -0.36%<BR
clear=all>1996-4<SPAN
> 1.57%
4 1.92% 5<SPAN
> -0.34% 1<SPAN
> 0.33% 2<SPAN
> 0.27% 3<SPAN
> 3.75%<BR
clear=all>1997-1
-0.75% 5 0.33% 1<SPAN
> 0.22% 2<SPAN
> 0.83% 3<SPAN
> -0.95% 4<SPAN
> -0.31%<BR
clear=all>1998-2
-0.73% 1 -3.62% 2<SPAN
> 0.87% 3<SPAN
> 0.76% 4<SPAN
> -0.02% 5<SPAN
> -2.75%<BR
clear=all>1999-3
-0.05% 1 -0.44% 2<SPAN
> -1.27% 3<SPAN
> 0.64% 4<SPAN
> -1.02% 5<SPAN
> -2.15%<BR
clear=all>2000-4<SPAN
> 0.51%
2 0.04% 3<SPAN
> 0.96% 4<SPAN
> 0.71% 5<SPAN
> 1.12% 1<SPAN
> 3.35%<BR
clear=all>2001-1<SPAN
> 0.39%
3 0.40% 4<SPAN
> -0.52% 5<SPAN
> -1.14% 1<SPAN
> 0.33% 2<SPAN
> -0.56%<BR
clear=all>2002-2
-2.96% 4 -2.31% 5<SPAN
> -3.43% 1<SPAN
> 2.99% 2<SPAN
> 2.00% 3<SPAN
> -3.70%<BR
clear=all>2003-3
-1.03% 5 0.27% 1<SPAN
> -1.77% 2<SPAN
> 0.17% 3<SPAN
> 0.73% 4<SPAN
> -1.62%<BR
clear=all>Averages
-0.22%
-0.33%
-0.54%
0.16%
0.25%
-0.68%<SPAN
> Winners<SPAN
> 40%<SPAN
> 47%<SPAN
> 33%<SPAN
> 60%<SPAN
> 60%<SPAN
>
33%
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>Last weeks rally corrected the extremely
oversold condition we had at the beginning of the week.<SPAN
> Next week begins with most of the
indicators neutral and a modestly negative seasonal bias.<BR
clear=all>I expect the major indices to be lower on Friday August 6 than they
were on Friday July 30.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>This report is free to anyone who wants it, so
please tell your friends.They can sign up
at:http://www.guaranteed-profits.comIf it is not for you, reply with
REMOVE in the subject line.Thank you,Mike Burk
W11/L14/T5
---Outgoing mail is
certified Virus Free.Checked by AVG anti-virus system (<A
href="">http://www.grisoft.com).Version: 6.0.732 /
Virus Database: 486 - Release Date: 7/29/2004
Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
ADVERTISEMENT
Yahoo! Groups Links
To visit your group on the web, go to:http://groups.yahoo.com/group/realtraders/
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
Attachment:
Description: ""
Attachment:
Description: ""
Attachment:
Description: ""
|