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Hello Eliot,
According to the COTs you provided Commercials have been heavily long
the US Dollar from October 2003 trough February 2004 and Dollar lost
5.5% for that period. That may imply that the COTs are of limited
predicion value.
Best regards,
Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
Saturday, July 17, 2004, 7:04:45 PM, you wrote:
EK> RTers,
EK> Was just wondering if any of you currency experts might like to comment
EK> on the following.
EK> In the enclosed DX (US Dollar), EC (Euro), & CD (Canadian Dollar) COT
EK> charts which I got from this weeks free Software North COT report,
EK> http://www.softwarenorth.com/trading/
EK> the implication seems to be that the commercials are quite long (and
EK> getting longer) the US Dollar, short (and getting shorter) the Canadian
EK> Dollar and the Euro. Yet the US Dollar's march south seems only
EK> occasionally interrupted, and just yesterday, the Canadian Dollar broke
EK> out of a measured move above its recent range. The Euro too does not
EK> seem to be bearing out this prediction. Am I reading this incorrectly?
EK> Of course, I know the commercials are often way ahead of the moves in
EK> the market that bear out their predictions that the COT provides, yet
EK> these charts seem so out of sync to me, that I expect some other
EK> explanation is more relevant.
EK> Earl, others, any thoughts?
EK> Thanks.
EK> Eliot
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