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----- Original Message -----
From: <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk ; <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
To: <A title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
Sent: Monday, June 21, 2004 8:14 PM
Subject: Roy Ashworth's report
<SPAN
>Commentary written on
06/18/2004The trading system that was developed on data from 1/1/88 to
1/1/96 obviously failed in 1999. The parameters that worked for 10 years did not
fit 1999 market conditions. I have optimized the parameters to fit the market
from 1/1/98 to 12/31/99. The Critical parameters
are:
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>2)
Family
A-SEL(38 Selects+MM)8) Rank
Short 109) Rank
Long 6010) Slope
LookBack 011) Ranking Method ACC17)
Wilder Accel 0.000618) Signal
File A-SEL24) Min Rank to
Buy 1027) Maxi Rnk to Hold 1628) Num of
Pos 535) Min Dys to
Hld 3036)
Penalty
0.75%
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>The performance of this System in
2003 was:From 12/31/02 to 12/31/03Total Trades = 21Num Wins=
14(66.7%)Trades/Position/Year= 4.2Total to date= 32.0%Annualized
Gain= 32.0%Maximum Draw Down= 12.30%Ulcer Index=
5.06%
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>The current performance of this
System is:From 12/31/03 to 06/18/04Total Trades = 18Num Wins=
6(33.3%)Trades/Position/Year= 7.8Total to date= -10.1%Annualized
Gain= -20.48%Ulcer Index= 8.51%Maximum Draw Down=
15.13%<SPAN
>A-SEL Holdings on 06/18/04
are:<SPAN
>
Next## Fund Bought %G/L
Trade-- ----- -------- ------ ------1 FSMEX
05/26/04 2.6 2 FCYIX
05/28/04 2.33 FSRFX
06/02/04 1.64 FSHCX
06/02/04 3.1 5 FSPFX
06/03/04 2.1<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>=================================Screen
1(MMR-SUMM Multi window file)A-SEL(Select Family + SPRXX)Average :From
the top:1) The Family Average is in the upper Bollinger Band
(Positive).2) The KST = +1.6 (Positive).3) Family McClellan Summation
Index = 3187(Positive) (Neutral is +1900).4) Family McClellan Oscillator =
+176(Positive).5) Select Family Advance-Decline + Summation Indicator Status
= BUY on 05/25/04.6) Money Market Rank (Acc 6-24) = 35 of 42
(Positive).=====================================Screen 2(MWD-AVG Multi
window file)A-SEL (Select Family + Money Market) Family Average:Left to
Right:Monthly - The last two candles are Green (Positive). Prices are in the
upper Bollinger Band (Positive). Stochastics, MACD, MACD Histogram, and DMI are
Positive.
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Weekly - The last candle is Green
(Positive). Prices are at the middle Bollinger Band (Neutral). MACD and MACD
Histogram are Negative. Stochastics and DMI are Positive.<FONT
face=Arial size=2><SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Daily - RSI, KST, MACD and MACD
Histogram are Positive.=====================================Screen 3
(MWD-US30 Multi window file)30-Year Bond
Yields:
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>The current yield is 5.38%Left
to Right:Monthly - The last candle is Red (decreasing Yields, increasing
Prices)(Positive). Yields are in the upper Bollinger Band (Negative).
Stochastics, MACD, MACD Histogram, and DMI are Negative. Weekly -
The last candle is Red (Positive). Yields are in the upper Bollinger Band
(Negative). Stochastics, MACD, and MACD Histogram are Negative. DMI is
Positive. <SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Daily - Yields are in the lower
Bollinger Band (Positive). KST is Negative. RSI, MACD, and MACD Histogram are
Positive. =====================================Conclusion:Bond
yields moved lower last week. Yields have moved sideways for six weeks. This
appears to be a correction before testing a downtrend line through the highs of
November 1994 and January 2000 (5.74%). On the positive side the weekly
indicators are at levels that usually mark a top and the daily indicators are
displaying divergences that are pointing to a move lower, which should be
positive for stocks.
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>The Select Family average moved
slightly higher last week. Prices are stuck below the middle weekly Bollinger
Band and above the middle daily Bollinger band. The weekly indicators are
starting to turn positive. Prices should soon move into the upper weekly
Bollinger band and begin a rally that should last into the elections.
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>The Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ 100 are
at the top of a down trending channel that started in January. Select Family
Average hit the top of its channel and pulled back but rallied to 0.5% below the
top channel line. The Russell 2000 is 2.5% below the top channel line. The
NASDAQ 100 had a higher low in May while the other indices had lower lows. The
NASDAQ 100 has a positive look and should lead the market as prices move higher.
In the past prices touched the top trend line and immediately retreated but this
time prices have lingered at the top trend line for two weeks. This is probably
a correction prior to a break out rally that should last into the
elections.<SPAN
>
<IMG
src="jpg00047.jpg">
<IMG
src="jpg00048.jpg">
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