|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
interesting charts
Ben
----- Original Message -----
From: <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk ; <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
To: <A title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
Sent: Saturday, June 12, 2004 11:15 AM
Subject: 6/12 Report
<A
name=OLE_LINK4><A
name=OLE_LINK1><SPAN
><SPAN
>Technical market report for June 12,
2004.The good news is:
<LI class=MsoNormal
><SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>New lows have dried up on both
exchanges.
<LI class=MsoNormal
><SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>All of the Summation indexes are moving
upward.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>The dramatic decline in new lows since the May
bottom tells us that the lows of May are unlikely to be seriously
challenged. Upward moving summation
indices tell us their underlying oscillators are positive.<SPAN
> Combined these indicators assure us the
intermediate term outlook for the market is
positive.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>The short term, some of the indicators raise
doubts.The chart below plots the NASDAQ composite in red, a 4%
trend (55 day EMA) of upside volume in green and a 4% trend of downside volume
on an inverted Y axis in purple.Downside volume made a double (or
triple) bottom about May 1st and has been diminishing rapidly since
the price low in mid May. Upside
volume increased for a few days after the mid May bottom but then resumed its
down trend. This indicates the
strength of the last 2+ weeks of this rally is not based on buying enthusiasm,
but simply a lack of sellers.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><v:shapetype id=_x0000_t75
coordsize="21600,21600" o:spt="75" o:preferrelative="t"
path="m@x@5l@x@11@x@11@x@5xe" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:stroke
joinstyle="miter"><v:f
eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"><v:f
eqn="sum 0 0 @1"><v:f
eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"><v:f
eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"><v:f
eqn="prod @6 1 2"><v:f
eqn="sum @8 21600 0"><v:f
eqn="sum @10 21600 0"><v:path o:extrusionok="f"
gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"><o:lock v:ext="edit"
aspectratio="t"><v:shape id=_x0000_i1025
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="OTC-UV-DV"><IMG
src="gif00170.gif">
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>The next chart plots the NASDAQ composite in
red, a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs in green and a 10% trend of
NASDAQ new lows on an inverted Y axis in
blue.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>New lows diminished rapidly after the May bottom
sending the new low indicator sharply upward, but there is been very little
build up of new highs. <v:shape id=_x0000_i1026
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="OTC-NH-NL"><IMG
src="gif00171.gif">
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>Summer doldrums, perhaps, but the picture last
year at this time was different as the chart below of the NASDAQ volume
indicators shows enthusiastic buying and
selling.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><v:shape id=_x0000_i1027
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="OTC-UV-DV-2003"><IMG
src="gif00172.gif">
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>Except for the last leg of a bull market, the
small caps lead both up and down.The chart below shows the Russell
2000 (R2K) in red, the S&P 500 (SPX) in green and Accutrack, a FastTrack
relative strength indicator as a histogram in yellow.After a
strong rally off the May bottom, the small cap leadership has been
faltering.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><v:shape id=_x0000_i1028
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="FT-R2K-Spx"><IMG
src="gif00173.gif">
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>Next Friday is options expiration and
historically the week prior to options expiration has been a little
weak.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>Witching
report for June.Witching is futures and options expiration the 3rd
Friday of the month.The witching Friday is marked *Fri*.<BR
clear=all>The number following the year is the position in the presidential
cycle.The report is calculated as trading days prior to the 3rd
Friday.R2K Year<SPAN
> Mon<SPAN
> Tue<SPAN
> Wed<SPAN
> Thur<SPAN
> *Fri* 1989-1<SPAN
> -0.03%<SPAN
> -0.40%<SPAN
> -0.14%<SPAN
> -0.78%<SPAN
> 0.24%1990-2<SPAN
> 0.09%<SPAN
> 0.56%<SPAN
> 0.49%<SPAN
> -0.14%<SPAN
> 0.16%1991-3<SPAN
> -0.19%<SPAN
> -0.33%<SPAN
> -1.00%<SPAN
> -0.24%<SPAN
> -0.04%1992-4<SPAN
> -0.28%<SPAN
> -0.55%<SPAN
> -1.83%<SPAN
> -0.89%<SPAN
> 0.35%1993-1<SPAN
> 0.11%<SPAN
> 0.27%<SPAN
> -0.14%<SPAN
> -0.07%<SPAN
> -0.41%1994-2<SPAN
> -0.09%<SPAN
> 0.31%<SPAN
> 0.05% <SPAN
> 0.19%<SPAN
> -0.53%1995-3<SPAN
> 0.45%<SPAN
> 0.64%<SPAN
> 0.22%<SPAN
> 0.52%<SPAN
> 0.18%1996-4<SPAN
> -0.32%<SPAN
> -1.38%<SPAN
> -0.53%<SPAN
> -0.88%<SPAN
> 0.31%1997-1<SPAN
> 0.03%<SPAN
> 0.09%<SPAN
> -0.02%<SPAN
> 1.03%<SPAN
> -0.73%1998-2<SPAN
> -1.75%<SPAN
> 1.04%<SPAN
> 1.30%<SPAN
> -0.97%<SPAN
> -0.31%1999-3<SPAN
> -1.48%<SPAN
> 0.57%<SPAN
> 1.66%<SPAN
> 0.49%<SPAN
> 0.38%2000-4<SPAN
> -2.78%<SPAN
> 1.03%<SPAN
> -0.79%<SPAN
> 0.51%<SPAN
> 0.29%2001-1<SPAN
> -0.92%<SPAN
> 0.00%<SPAN
> -0.36%<SPAN
> -1.93%<SPAN
> -0.05%2002-2<SPAN
> 2.54%<SPAN
> -0.22%<SPAN
> -1.45%<SPAN
> -0.58%<SPAN
> 0.18%2003-3<SPAN
> 1.73%<SPAN
> 0.12%<SPAN
> -0.11%<SPAN
> -1.57%<SPAN
> -0.17%<BR
clear=all>
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>Avg<SPAN
> -0.19%<SPAN
> 0.13%<SPAN
> -0.18%<SPAN
> -0.35%<SPAN
> -0.01%Win%<SPAN
> 40%<SPAN
> 64%<SPAN
> <SPAN
> 33%<SPAN
> 33%<SPAN
>
53%
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><BR
clear=all>SPXYear<SPAN
> Mon<SPAN
> Tue<SPAN
> Wed<SPAN
> Thur<SPAN
> *Fri*1989-1<SPAN
> -0.14%<SPAN
> -0.71%<SPAN
> -0.02%<SPAN
> -1.16%<SPAN
> 0.40%1990-2<SPAN
> 0.81%<SPAN
> 1.28%<SPAN
> -0.37%<SPAN
> -0.55%<SPAN
> 0.00%1991-3<SPAN
> -0.57%<SPAN
> -0.41%<SPAN
> -0.92%<SPAN
> 0.09%<SPAN
> 0.62%1992-4<SPAN
> 0.13%<SPAN
> -0.48%<SPAN
> -1.48%<SPAN
> -0.32%<SPAN
> 0.68%1993-1<SPAN
> 0.10%<SPAN
> -0.32%<SPAN
> 0.26%<SPAN
> 0.25%<SPAN
> -1.08%1994-2<SPAN
> 0.09%<SPAN
> 0.71%<SPAN
> -0.38%<SPAN
> 0.29%<SPAN
> -0.75%1995-3<SPAN
> 0.56%<SPAN
> 0.97%<SPAN
> 0.08%<SPAN
> 0.12%<SPAN
> 0.50%1996-4<SPAN
> -0.10%<SPAN
> -0.47%<SPAN
> -0.02%<SPAN
> 0.02%<SPAN
> 0.72%1997-1<SPAN
> 0.07%<SPAN
> 0.06%<SPAN
> -0.60%<SPAN
> 1.00%<SPAN
> 0.08%1998-2<SPAN
> -1.99% <SPAN
> 0.98%<SPAN
> 1.79%<SPAN
> -0.07%<SPAN
> -0.52%1999-3<SPAN
> 0.03%<SPAN
> 0.55%<SPAN
> 2.25%<SPAN
> 0.71%<SPAN
> 0.22%2000-4<SPAN
> -0.75%<SPAN
> 1.62%<SPAN
> 0.07%<SPAN
> 0.56%<SPAN
> -0.97%2001-1<SPAN
> -0.84%<SPAN
> 0.12%<SPAN
> -1.13%<SPAN
> -1.75%<SPAN
> -0.45%2002-2<SPAN
> 2.87%<SPAN
> 0.09%<SPAN
> -1.65%<SPAN
> -1.34%<SPAN
> -1.70%2003-3<SPAN
> 2.24%<SPAN
> 0.09%<SPAN
> -0.16%<SPAN
> -1.52%<SPAN
> 0.10%<BR
clear=all>
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>Avg<SPAN
> 0.17%<SPAN
> 0.27%<SPAN
> -0.15%<SPAN
> -0.24%<SPAN
> -0.14%Win%<SPAN
> 60%<SPAN
> 67%<SPAN
> 33%<SPAN
> 53%<SPAN
>
60%
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>The market is overbought for the short term, and
the advances of the past two weeks have been driven by a lack of sellers, not
enthusiasm of buyers. Seasonally
the week has had a slight negative bias.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>I expect the major indices will be lower on
Friday June 18 than they were on Thursday June
10.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>Last weeks negative forecast was a miss as all
of the major indices were up.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>This report is free to anyone who wants it, so
please tell your friends.They can sign up
at:http://www.guaranteed-profits.comIf it is not for you, reply with
REMOVE in the subject line.Thank you,Mike Burk
W8/L11/T4
Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
ADVERTISEMENT
Yahoo! Groups Links
To visit your group on the web, go to:http://groups.yahoo.com/group/realtraders/
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
Attachment:
Description: ""
Attachment:
Description: ""
Attachment:
Description: ""
Attachment:
Description: ""
|