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----- Original Message -----
From: <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk ; <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
To: <A title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
Sent: Monday, May 17, 2004 9:37 PM
Subject: Goron Harms report
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face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
5/14/04 MARKET CLOSE
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face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
TIMING IS EVERYTHING
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size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MARKET CLIMATE/OUTLOOK-
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Low Interest Rates<SPAN
>
-Bullish
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Gross Domestic Product<SPAN
> -Bullish Up 4.2%
was Up 4.1%
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 Expected Earnings<SPAN
> -Bullish $64.46 up from
$64.15
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>INFLATION: 3 month moving average falling; Mixed
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>CPI, Apr is 1.91% (Inflation), up from 1.79% in Mar. Low 1.20 7/02.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>PPI, Apr is 2.24% (Inflation), up from 1.96% in Mar. Low -2.37
2/02.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>CRB, May is 1.00% (Inflation), down from 1.01% in Apr.
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size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MARKET TREND: Favorable
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SP-CP is 1.28% above 1082 the 200sma which is rising. Was
1.84%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 is 53.57% UNDERVALUED below an estimated 2360 fair
value,
<FONT
face="Courier New"> based on
historical S&P 500 earnings, P/E and US30 bond yield.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 annual earnings growth is 76.7%/year. Low -51.41% on
4/19/02.
<FONT
face="Courier New"> Long term
S&P earnings growth rate average is near 6%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 Inflation adjusted real dividend yield is -0.16%.
<FONT
face="Courier New"> Prior week was
-0.16%. BUY at greater than approx.-1.50%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Dollar index is up 8.16% from 2/17/04. Was up 5.73%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MARKET TREND: Unfavorable
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Long Term Index Cycles<SPAN
> -Bearish 8 of 8
are moving down.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Short Term Index Cycles<SPAN
> -Bearish 6 of 8 are
moving down.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>NYSE AD Sum Index<SPAN
>
–Bearish turned down 4/7/04.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>NASDAQ AD Sum Index<SPAN
>
–Bearish turned down 4/26/04.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Trailing S&P earnings<SPAN
> -Bearish
$48.74 down from $49.08.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>All six trading systems are holding money funds from 4/22/04.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SP-CP is 2.36% below 1122 the 50sma which is falling. Was
-2.56%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>May through Oct is seasonally unfavorable on average.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MARKET VALUATION: Unfavorable
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Estimated S&P500 P/E for the coming year is 16.74.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>The S&P500 P/E ratio is 22.48(4 to 20 is range: 1870 to
1997)
<FONT
face="Courier New"> based on
trailing earnings. Trailing P/E was 45 in April 2002.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 market value is 3.38 times book value. Was 3.39 last
week.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MONETARY LIQUIDITY: Favorable
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Three month ROC of M3 money is 2.56%, last week was 1.77%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Money Market yield is 0.49%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Money Market funds are 2.013 trillion, was 1.993 trillion.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>5 Yr Note yield is 3.74% up from 3.60%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>10 Yr Note yield is 4.62% up from 4.49%
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>25+ Yr Note yield is 5.42% up from 5.32%.
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size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>PSYCHOLOGY: Mixed; 3 Neutral, 1 Bull
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>CBOE Equity Total Vol. Put/Call Ratio: .87, last week was .69.
<FONT
face="Courier New"> Market: Bullish
> 0.60 and Bearish < 0.30
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Market Vane(Commodity/Futures): 59% Bullish, last week was 63%
Bullish.
<FONT
face="Courier New"> Market: Bullish
< 25% and Bearish > 65%
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>AAII 32.9% bull and 43.4% bear. 3 wk SMA Ratio = 0.81(Mkt
Neutral).
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>3 wk SMA Ratio > 1.10 = Bullish, >> Bullish = > 1.50, <
0.35 = Bearish
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>USB Index of Consumer Optimism 73 Mar. was 85 Feb. Estimated
neutral.
<FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>Estimated bullish < 41, bearish > 142.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>RELATIVE VALUATION(Stocks to Bonds): Favors Stocks
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Stock Value Index is 3.75, was 3.97. Buy greater than 1.03.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P 500 dividend yield is 1.65 times 13 week T-Bill yield.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Five year note yield is 2.14 times S&P 500 yield.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>BONDS:
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>The 30 year U.S. Govt. bond real yield is 3.59%, last wk was 3.56%.
<FONT
face="Courier New"> The historical
average, real yield is near 3.00%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>The average 30 year U. S. Govt. historical bond yield expected
<FONT
face="Courier New"> is 4.91%,
current yield is 5.50%. Was 5.47%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>STBI Bonds are down 9.43% from 3/16/04. Was down 8.63%
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Bd-Junk bonds are down 5.13% from 1/23/04. Was down 3.64%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Zero bonds are down 8.24% from 3/17/04. Was down 8.21%.
<SPAN
><FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>DOMINANT MARKET INDICATOR(Beasley): Favorable but score is
OUT.
<FONT
face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
OTC-C DOMINANT Neg Env, Score 3/15(IN > 4/15), OUT
4/27/04.
<FONT
face="Courier New">
NYC-I<SPAN
>
Neg Env, Score 0/13(IN > 3/13), OUT 4/27/04.
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face="Courier New">
Total score is 3 of 28,
last weeks score was 3.
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size=2>
<FONT
face="Courier New">CYCLES<SPAN
> 5 WEEK<SPAN
>
10 WEEK<SPAN
>
20 WEEK<SPAN
>
9 Month<SPAN
>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>WIL-5 OS-Dn,04/28/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,04/28/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/05/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/24/04
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>DJ-30 OS-Dn,04/28/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,04/29/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/03/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/24/04
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>RUT-I OS-Up,05/11/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,04/29/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,04/28/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/09/04
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>NDX-X OS-Up,05/11/04<SPAN
> N-Dn,04/29/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,05/03/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/06/04
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>N = Stoch >20 <80, OS = Stoch <20 OUT/Buy, <st1:place
w:st="on">OB = Stoch >80 Hold/Sell
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size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SECTOR Averages ranked by percent gain from 4/15/04:(Last intermed.
High)
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face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
VMFXX
0.1
Latin <SPAN
> -11.1
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face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
Bd-US <SPAN
> -1.7<SPAN
> Japan
<SPAN
> -13.0
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face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
Health
-1.9 <SPAN
> Emerge<SPAN
>
-13.5
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face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
DJ-20 <SPAN
> -2.2<SPAN
>
New-Asia <SPAN
> -13.8
<FONT
face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
Bd-Zero
-2.6
Precious
-15.2
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>FUNDS: SCHUS.Fam(1071) ranked from 4/15/04:(Last intermed.
High)
<FONT
face="Courier New"> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> RYVNX<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> 7.6<SPAN
> SCGDX<SPAN
>
-19.1
<FONT
face="Courier New">
POSSX<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> 6.3<SPAN
> <SPAN
> UNWPX<SPAN
>
-18.0
<FONT
face="Courier New">
URPIX<SPAN
> 5.6<SPAN
> MIDSX<SPAN
>
-17.8
<FONT
face="Courier New">
RYAIX<SPAN
> <SPAN
> 3.9<SPAN
> GOLDX<SPAN
> <SPAN
> -17.2
<FONT
face="Courier New">
POTSX<SPAN
> <SPAN
> 3.8<SPAN
> RYPMX<SPAN
> <SPAN
> -16.8
<FONT
face="Courier New">
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SYSTEM(NCALPHA)...TRADE....C/MDY..HOLD.....G/L.......ANN/MDD....ONE
YEAR
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SHARP(Microc2x)...4/21/04....22...VMFXX....0.04......47.8/12.1......41.6
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>LOSDF(Microc2x)...4/21/04....22...VMFXX....0.04......40.0/10.4......39.7
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MDSDF(Microc2x)...4/21/04....22...VMFXX....0.04......42.6/10.4......34.2
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>NCALP(Microc2x)...4/21/04....22...VMFXX....0.04......54.2/12.1......37.2
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500(Microc2x)..4/21/04....16...VMFXX....0.04......15.1/9.3.......21.2
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>OTC-C(Microc2x)...4/21/04....16...VMFXX....0.04......32.2/16.7......31.3
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500
Buy/Hold...5/14/03...252...SP500..............10.0/49.2......16.6
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>OTC-C
Buy/Hold....5/14/03...252...OTC-C..............11.5/77.9......24.1
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MICROC2X signal was corrected.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>REF: Data from Barron’s weekly magazine.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
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src="gif00151.gif">
<IMG
src="gif00152.gif">
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