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----- Original Message -----
From: <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk ; <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
To: <A title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
Sent: Monday, May 03, 2004 10:10 PM
Subject: Gordon Harms report
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face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
4/30/04 MARKET CLOSE
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face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
TIMING IS EVERYTHING
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size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MARKET CLIMATE/OUTLOOK-
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Low Interest Rates<SPAN
>
-Bullish
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size=2>Gross Domestic Product<SPAN
> -Bullish Up 4.2%
was Up 4.1%
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 Expected Earnings<SPAN
> -Bullish $64.15 up from
$63.22
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>INFLATION: 3 week moving average falling; Favorable
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>CPI, Mar is 1.79% (inflation), down from 1.83% in Feb. Low 1.20 7/02.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>PPI, Mar is 1.96% (inflation), down from 2.88% in Feb. Low -2.37
2/02.
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size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MARKET TREND: Favorable
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SP-CP is 2.94% above 1076 the 200sma which is rising. Was
6.38%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 is 55.5% UNDERVALUED below an estimated 2487 fair
value,
<FONT
face="Courier New"> based on
historical S&P 500 earnings, P/E and US30 bond yield.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 annual earnings growth is 77%/year. Low -51.41% on
4/19/02.
<FONT
face="Courier New"> Long term
S&P earnings growth rate average is near 6%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 Inflation adjusted real dividend yield is -0.06%.
<FONT
face="Courier New"> Prior week was
-0.13%. BUY at greater than approx.-1.50%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Oct through May is seasonally favorable on average.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Dollar index is up 6.53% from 2/17/04. Was up 6.70%.
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size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MARKET TREND: Unfavorable
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Long Term Index Cycles
<SPAN
> -Bearish 7 of 8 are moving
down.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Short Term Index Cycles<SPAN
> -Bearish 8 of 8 are
moving down.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>NYSE AD Sum Index<SPAN
>
–Bearish turned down 4/7/04.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>NASDAQ AD Sum Index<SPAN
>
–Bearish turned down 4/26/04.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Trailing S&P earnings<SPAN
> -Bearish
$48.74 down from $49.08.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>All six trading systems are holding money funds from 4/29/04.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SP-CP is 2.04% below 1130 the 50sma which is falling. Was
+0.64%.
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size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MARKET VALUATION: Unfavorable
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Estimated S&P500 P/E for the coming year is 17.52.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>The S&P500 P/E ratio is 22.70(4 to 20 is range: 1870 to
1997)
<FONT
face="Courier New"> based on
trailing earnings. Trailing P/E was 45 in April 2002.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 market value is 3.42 times book value. Was 3.52 last
week.
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size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MONETARY LIQUIDITY: Favorable
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Three month ROC of M3 money is 1.65%, last week was 1.98%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Money Market yield is 0.51%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Money Market funds are 1.998 trillion, was 2.018 trillion.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>5 Yr Note yield is 3.49% up from 3.38%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>10 Yr Note yield is 4.43% up from 4.36%
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>25+ Yr Note yield is 5.28% up from 5.21%.
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size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>PSYCHOLOGY: Mixed; 3 Neutral, 1 Bull
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>CBOE Equity Total Vol. Put/Call Ratio: .70, last week was .64.
<FONT
face="Courier New"> Market: Bullish
> 0.60 and Bearish < 0.30
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Market Vane(Commodity/Futures): 60% Bullish, last week was 64%
Bullish.
<FONT
face="Courier New"> Market: Bullish
< 25% and Bearish > 65%
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>AAII 50.0% bull and 21.2% bear. 3 wk SMA Ratio = 0.36(Mkt
Neutral).
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>3 wk SMA Ratio > 1.10 = Bullish, >> Bullish = > 1.50, <
0.35 = Bearish
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>USB Index of Consumer Optimism 73 was 85. Estimated neutral.
<FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>Estimated bullish < 41, bearish > 142.
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size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>RELATIVE VALUATION(Stocks to Bonds): Favors Stocks
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Stock Value Index is 4.05, was 4.06. Buy greater than 1.03.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P 500 dividend yield is 1.78 times 13 week T-Bill yield.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Five year note yield is 2.02 times S&P 500 yield.
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size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>BONDS:
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>The 30 year U.S. Govt. bond real yield is 3.50%, last wk was 3.45%.
<FONT
face="Courier New"> <SPAN
> The historical average, real yield is
near 3.00%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>The average 30 year U. S. Govt. historical bond yield expected
<FONT
face="Courier New"> is 4.79%,
current yield is 5.29%. Was 5.24%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>STBI Bonds are down 7.03% from 3/16/04. Was down 6.73%
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Bd-Junk bonds are down 2.24% from 1/23/04. Was down 1.81%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Zero bonds are down 6.19% from 3/17/04. Was down 5.85%.
<SPAN
><FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>DOMINANT MARKET INDICATOR(Beasley): Favorable but score is
OUT.
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face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
OTC-C DOMINANT Neg Env, Score 3/15(IN > 4/15), OUT
4/27/04.
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face="Courier New">
NYC-I<SPAN
>
Neg Env, Score 0/13(IN > 3/13), OUT 4/27/04.
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face="Courier New">
Total score is 3 of 28,
last weeks score was 10.
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size=2>
<FONT
face="Courier New">CYCLES<SPAN
> 5 WEEK<SPAN
>
10 WEEK<SPAN
>
20 WEEK<SPAN
>
9 Month<SPAN
>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>WIL-5 OS-Dn,04/28/04<SPAN
> N-Dn,04/28/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/05/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/24/04
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>DJ-30 OS-Dn,04/28/04<SPAN
> OB-Dn,03/29/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/03/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/24/04
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>RUT-I OS-Dn,04/28/04<SPAN
> OB-Dn,04/29/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,04/28/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/09/04
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>NDX-X OS-Dn,04/28/04<SPAN
> OB-Dn,03/29/04<SPAN
> OS-Up,04/05/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/06/04
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>N = Stoch >20 <80, OS = Stoch <20 OUT/Buy, <st1:place
w:st="on">OB = Stoch >80 Hold/Sell
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size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SECTOR Averages ranked by percent gain from 3/24/03:(Last intermed.
low)
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face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
Health <SPAN
> <SPAN
> 5.4<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> Bd-US<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> -3.9
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face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
DJ-20 <SPAN
> <SPAN
> 4.5<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> New-Asia <SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> -4.4
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face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
Energy <SPAN
> <SPAN
> 4.1<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> Latin<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> -4.9
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face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
DJ-30 <SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> 2.3<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> Realty<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> -11.3
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face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
A-Sel <SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> 1.5<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> Precious<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> -17.0
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>FUNDS: SCHUS.Fam(1071) ranked from 3/24/03:(Last intermed.
low)
<FONT
face="Courier New"> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> ATCHX<SPAN
> <SPAN
> 15.7 <SPAN
> <SPAN
> BJRSX<SPAN
>
-11.6
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face="Courier New">
DRBNX<SPAN
> <SPAN
> 10.3<SPAN
> SSREX<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> -11.6
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face="Courier New">
ENPIX<SPAN
> <SPAN
> 8.7<SPAN
> USERX<SPAN
>
-11.6
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face="Courier New">
INPIX<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> 8.3<SPAN
> RYVYX<SPAN
> <SPAN
> -15.8
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face="Courier New">
BSCFX<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> 8.2<SPAN
> REPIX<SPAN
> <SPAN
> -17.6
<FONT
face="Courier New">
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SYSTEM(NCALPHA)...TRADE....C/MDY..HOLD.....G/L.......ANN/MDD....ONE
YEAR
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SHARP(Microc2x)...4/30/04.....1...VMFXX....0.00......47.8/12.1......46.0
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>LOSDF(Microc2x)...4/30/04.....1...VMFXX....0.00......40.0/10.4......35.6
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MDSDF(Microc2x)...4/30/04.....1...VMFXX....0.00......42.6/10.4......32.8
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>NCALP(Microc2x)...4/30/04.....1...VMFXX....0.00......54.2/12.1......39.6
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500(Microc2x)..4/30/04.....1...VMFXX....0.00......15.1/9.3.......19.7
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>OTC-C(Microc2x)...4/30/04.....1...VMFXX....0.00......32.2/16.7......30.1
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500
Buy/Hold...4/30/03...252...SP500..............10.0/49.2......20.7
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>OTC-C
Buy/Hold....4/30/03...252...OTC-C..............11.5/77.9......31.0
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Corrected trade dates above.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>REF: Data from Barron’s weekly magazine.
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size=2>
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<IMG
src="gif00137.gif">
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