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----- Original Message -----
From: <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk ; <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
To: <A title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
Sent: Saturday, April 24, 2004 11:29 AM
Subject: 4/24 Report
<A
name=OLE_LINK4><A
name=OLE_LINK1><SPAN
><SPAN
>Technical market report for April 24,
2004.The good news is:
<LI class=MsoNormal
><SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>The number of new lows on the NASDAQ remains
insignificant.
<LI class=MsoNormal
><SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>Many of the short term indicators have turned
upward.
<LI class=MsoNormal
><SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>Next week is seasonally
strong.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>Increasing volume is generally good and the
chart below shows, since the late March low, volume of the component issues of
the Russell 2000 (R2K) has been increasing.<SPAN
>
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><v:shapetype id=_x0000_t75
coordsize="21600,21600" o:spt="75" o:preferrelative="t"
path="m@x@5l@x@11@x@11@x@5xe" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:stroke
joinstyle="miter"><v:f
eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"><v:f
eqn="sum 0 0 @1"><v:f
eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"><v:f
eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"><v:f
eqn="prod @6 1 2"><v:f
eqn="sum @8 21600 0"><v:f
eqn="sum @10 21600 0"><v:path o:extrusionok="f"
gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"><o:lock v:ext="edit"
aspectratio="t"><v:shape id=_x0000_i1025
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="R2K_Vol"><IMG
src="gif00118.gif">
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>The next chart offers a shorter term view of the
volume components of the R2K. The
indicator on this chart is constructed by subtracting momentum of volume of
issues declining in price from momentum of issues advancing in
price.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><v:shape id=_x0000_i1026
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="R2K_UD_MoM_Diff"><IMG
src="gif00119.gif">
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>On the R2K, the volume indicators are moving in
the right direction.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>The same indicator can be derived from new highs
and new lows. In the chart below,
the indicator (in blue) is constructed by subtracting momentum of new lows
subtracted from momentum of new highs.
New highs and new lows for this chart have been calculated from the
component issues of the R2K on a trailing 6 week basis rather than 52 weeks as
reported by the exchanges.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><v:shape id=_x0000_i1027
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="R2K_HL_MoM_Diff"><IMG
src="gif00120.gif">
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>The next two charts show two indicators
calculated from new highs and new lows on the S&P500 (SPX).<SPAN
> The first is an oscillator constructed
by subtracting a longer moving average from a shorter moving average of new lows
subtracted from new highs. For this
indicator new highs and new lows have been calculated on the component issues of
the SPX over the past 6 weeks.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><v:shape id=_x0000_i1028
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="SPX_HL_Osc"><IMG
src="gif00121.gif">
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>The oscillator above jumps around a lot, but
generally when it is above the zero line the market is moving upward.<SPAN
> A summation index (SI) is
calculated by adding the values of an oscillator.<SPAN
> When the oscillator is above zero the SI
moves upward and when the oscillator is below zero the SI moves downward.<BR
clear=all>The chart below shows a SI of the oscillator in the chart
above.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><v:shape id=_x0000_i1029
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="SPX_HL_SI"><IMG
src="gif00122.gif">
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>Seasonality, as developed by Norman Fosback says
that most of the markets gains can be captured in the first and last few trading
days of each month. Some months are
better than others. The tables
below show how the R2K and SPX have fared over the last 5 trading days of April
during the past 15 years.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>Last
5 days of April.The number following the daily return represents
the day of the week;1 = Monday, 2 = Tuesday etc.<BR
clear=all>R2K<SPAN
>
Day5
Day4
Day3
Day2
Day1
Totals1989-1<SPAN
> -0.01% 1<SPAN
> -0.01% 2<SPAN
> 0.20% 3<SPAN
> 0.42% 4<SPAN
> 0.24% 5<SPAN
> 0.84%<BR
clear=all>1990-2
-0.08% 2 1.02% 3<SPAN
> -0.78% 4<SPAN
> -0.57% 5<SPAN
> 0.17% 1<SPAN
> -0.24%<BR
clear=all>1991-3<SPAN
> 0.55%
3 -0.23% 4<SPAN
> -0.44% 5<SPAN
> -1.02% 1<SPAN
> -0.82% 2<SPAN
> -1.97%<BR
clear=all>1992-4
-0.08% 5 -0.71% 1<SPAN
> -0.81% 2<SPAN
> 1.02% 3<SPAN
> 1.39% 4<SPAN
> 0.81%<BR
clear=all>1993-1
-1.44% 1 0.02% 2<SPAN
> 0.41% 3<SPAN
> 0.41% 4<SPAN
> 0.61% 5<SPAN
> 0.01%<BR
clear=all>1994-2<SPAN
> 0.50%
5 1.12% 1<SPAN
> 0.65% 2<SPAN
> 0.14% 4<SPAN
> 0.49% 5<SPAN
> 2.92%<BR
clear=all>1995-3<SPAN
> 0.45%
1 0.10% 2<SPAN
> 0.35% 3<SPAN
> 0.31% 4<SPAN
> 0.18% 5<SPAN
> 1.39%<BR
clear=all>1996-4
0.33% 3<SPAN
> 0.46% 4<SPAN
> 0.46% 5<SPAN
> 0.11% 1<SPAN
> 0.02% 2<SPAN
> 1.38%<BR
clear=all>1997-1<SPAN
> 0.04%
4 -0.79% 5<SPAN
> 0.07% 1<SPAN
> 1.33% 2<SPAN
> 0.71% 3<SPAN
> 1.36%<BR
clear=all>1998-2
-0.95% 5 -2.46% 1<SPAN
> 0.86% 2<SPAN
> 0.94% 3<SPAN
> 1.24% 4<SPAN
> -0.37%<BR
clear=all>1999-3<SPAN
> 0.75%
1 0.04% 2<SPAN
> -0.37% 3<SPAN
> -0.16% 4<SPAN
> -0.01% 5<SPAN
> 0.25%<BR
clear=all>2000-4
-2.76% 1 4.37% 2<SPAN
> -0.98% 3<SPAN
> 2.13% 4<SPAN
> 2.36% 5<SPAN
> 5.13%<BR
clear=all>2001-1<SPAN
> 0.28%
2 2.25% 3<SPAN
> 1.02% 4<SPAN
> 1.34% 5<SPAN
> 0.28% 1<SPAN
> 5.17%<BR
clear=all>2002-2
-0.58% 3 0.30% 4<SPAN
> -1.44% 5<SPAN
> -0.19% 1<SPAN
> 2.02% 2<SPAN
> 0.11%<BR
clear=all>2003-3
-0.68% 4 -0.96% 5<SPAN
> 1.72% 1<SPAN
> 0.15% 2<SPAN
> 0.73% 3<SPAN
> 0.96%<BR
clear=all>Averages
-0.25%
0.30%
0.06%
0.42%
0.64%
1.18%<SPAN
> Winners<SPAN
> 47%<SPAN
> 60%<SPAN
> 60%<SPAN
> 73%<SPAN
>
87%
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>SPX<SPAN
>
Day5
Day4
Day3
Day2
Day1
Totals1989-1
-0.30% 1<SPAN
> -0.63% 2<SPAN
> 0.06% 3<SPAN
> 0.86% 4<SPAN
> 0.02% 5<SPAN
> 0.02%<BR
clear=all>1990-2
-0.21% 2 0.51% 3<SPAN
> 0.27% 4<SPAN
> -1.14% 5<SPAN
> 0.51% 1<SPAN
> -0.07%<BR
clear=all>1991-3<SPAN
> 0.26%
3 -0.92% 4<SPAN
> -0.06% 5<SPAN
> -1.41% 1<SPAN
> 0.45% 2<SPAN
> -1.68%<BR
clear=all>1992-4
-0.63% 5 -0.14% 1<SPAN
> 0.16% 2<SPAN
> 0.71% 3<SPAN
> <SPAN
> 0.71% 4<SPAN
> 0.82%<BR
clear=all>1993-1
-0.80% 1 1.03% 2<SPAN
> 0.00% 3<SPAN
> 0.20% 4<SPAN
> 0.30% 5<SPAN
> 0.73%<BR
clear=all>1994-2
-0.25% 5 1.13% 1<SPAN
> -0.19% 2<SPAN
> -0.61% 4<SPAN
> 0.40% 5<SPAN
> 0.49%<BR
clear=all>1995-3<SPAN
> 0.87%
1 -0.15% 2<SPAN
> 0.11% 3<SPAN
> 0.17% 4<SPAN
> 0.23% 5<SPAN
> 1.22%<BR
clear=all>1996-4
-0.22% 3 0.42% 4<SPAN
> 0.09% 5<SPAN
> 0.11% 1<SPAN
> 0.00% 2<SPAN
> 0.40%<BR
clear=all>1997-1
-0.32% 4 -0.75% 5<SPAN
> 0.99% 1<SPAN
> 2.73% 2<SPAN
> 0.92% 3<SPAN
> 3.57%<BR
clear=all>1998-2
-1.04% 5 -1.93% 1<SPAN
> -0.13% 2<SPAN
> 0.88% 3<SPAN
> 1.56% 4<SPAN
> -0.66%<BR
clear=all>1999-3<SPAN
> 0.24%
1 0.20% 2<SPAN
> -0.87% 3<SPAN
> -0.60% 4<SPAN
> -0.57% 5<SPAN
> -1.60%<BR
clear=all>2000-4
-0.33% 1 3.33% 2<SPAN
> -1.11% 3<SPAN
> 0.27% 4<SPAN
> -0.85% 5<SPAN
> 1.30%<BR
clear=all>2001-1
-1.22% 2 1.59% 3<SPAN
> 0.47% 4<SPAN
> 1.50% 5<SPAN
> -0.29% 1<SPAN
> 2.06%<BR
clear=all>2002-2
-0.71% 3 -0.15% 4<SPAN
> -1.39% 5<SPAN
> -1.01% 1<SPAN
> 1.08% 2<SPAN
> -2.18%<BR
clear=all>2003-3
-0.83% 4 -1.38% 5<SPAN
> 1.78% 1<SPAN
> 0.33% 2<SPAN
> -0.10% 3<SPAN
> -0.20%<BR
clear=all>Averages
-0.36%
0.14%
0.01%
0.20%
0.29%
0.28%<SPAN
> Winners<SPAN
> 20%<SPAN
> 47%<SPAN
> 60%<SPAN
> 67%<SPAN
>
73%
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>Small caps typically outperform large caps
during the beginning of month, end of month
periods.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>The market is entering a seasonally strong
period as it is coming off a short term low, this is a good
combination.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>I expect the major indices will be higher on
Friday April 30 than they were on Friday April
23.<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>This
report is free to anyone who wants it, so please tell your friends.They can
sign up at:http://www.guaranteed-profits.comIf it is not for you, reply
with REMOVE in the subject line.Thank you,Mike Burk W6/L8/T2<BR
><BR
>
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