|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
----- Original Message -----
From: <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk ; <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
To: <A title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
Sent: Tuesday, April 20, 2004 6:18 AM
Subject: Gordon Harms report
<FONT
face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
4/16/04 MARKET CLOSE
<FONT
face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
TIMING IS EVERYTHING
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MARKET CLIMATE/OUTLOOK-
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Low Interest Rates<SPAN
>
-Bullish
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Gross Domestic Product<SPAN
> -Bullish Up 4.1%
was Up 8.2%
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 Expected Earnings<SPAN
> -Bullish $64.15 up from
$63.22
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>INFLATION: 3 week moving average falling; Favorable
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>CPI, Mar is 1.79% (inflation), down from 1.83% in Feb. Low 1.20 7/02.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>PPI, Jan is 3.45% (inflation), down from 3.63% in Dec. Low -2.37
2/02.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MARKET TREND: Favorable
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SP-CP is 6.16% above 1069 the 200sma which is rising. Was
6.95%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SP-CP is 0.07% above 1134 the 50sma which is falling. Was
+0.49%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 is 55% UNDERVALUED below an estimated 2506 fair
value,
<FONT
face="Courier New"> based on
historical S&P 500 earnings, P/E and US30 bond yield.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 annual earnings growth is 77%/year. Low -51.41% on
4/19/02.
<FONT
face="Courier New"> Long term
S&P earnings growth rate average is near 6%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 Inflation adjusted real dividend yield is -0.12%.
<FONT
face="Courier New"> Prior week was
-0.17%. BUY at greater than approx.-1.50%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>All six trading systems are holding mutual funds from 3/31/04.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Oct through May is seasonally favorable on average.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Dollar index is up 5.93% from 2/17/04. Was up 3.82%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MARKET TREND: Unfavorable
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Long Term Index Cycles
<SPAN
> -Bearish 6 of 8 are moving
down.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Short Term Index Cycles<SPAN
> -Bearish 5 of 8 are
moving down.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>NASDAQ AD Sum Index<SPAN
>
–Bearish turned down 4/13/04.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>NYSE AD Sum Index<SPAN
>
–Bearish turned down 4/7/04.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Trailing S&P earnings<SPAN
> -Bearish
$48.74 down from $49.08.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MARKET VALUATION: Unfavorable
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Estimated S&P500 P/E for the coming year is 18.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>The S&P500 P/E ratio is 23(4 to 20 is range: 1870 to 1997)
<FONT
face="Courier New"> based on
trailing earnings. Trailing P/E was 45 in April 2002.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 market value is 3.50 times book value. Was 3.51 last
week.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MONETARY LIQUIDITY: Favorable
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Three month ROC of M3 money is 2.57%, last week was 2.99%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>5 Yr Note yield is 3.21% up from 2.91%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>10 Yr Note yield is 4.21% up from 3.95%
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>25+ Yr Note yield is 5.09% up from 4.89%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>PSYCHOLOGY: Mixed; 2 Bear, 1 Bull
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>CBOE Equity Total Vol. Put/Call Ratio: .65, last week was .58.
<FONT
face="Courier New"> Market: Bullish
> 0.60 and Bearish < 0.30
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Market Vane(Commodity/Futures): 66% Bullish, last week was 69%
Bullish.
<FONT
face="Courier New"> Market: Bullish
< 25% and Bearish > 65%
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>AAII 63.8% bull and 13.7% bear. 3 wk SMA Ratio = 0.32(Mkt
Bearish).
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>3 wk SMA Ratio > 1.10 = Bullish, >> Bullish = > 1.50, <
0.35 = Bearish
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>RELATIVE VALUATION(Stocks to Bonds): Favorable
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Stock Value Index is 4.17, was 4.10. Buy greater than 1.03.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Stock yield is 4.70 times 13 week T-Bill yield.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Stock yield is 1.34 times 5 year note yield.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>BONDS:
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>The 30 year U.S. Govt. bond real yield is 3.39%, last wk was 3.24%.
<FONT
face="Courier New"> The historical
average, real yield is near 3.00%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>The average 30 year U. S. Govt. historical bond yield expected
<FONT
face="Courier New"> is 4.79%,
current yield is 5.18%. Was 5.03%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>STBI Bonds are down 6.18% from 3/16/04. Was down 4.56%
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Bd-Junk bonds are down 1.55% from 1/23/04. Was down 0.91
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Zero bonds are down 5.24% from 3/16/04. Was down 4.04%.
<SPAN
><FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>DOMINANT MARKET INDICATOR(Beasley): Favorable but score is OUT
<FONT
face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
OTC-C DOMINANT Neg Env, Score 3/15(IN > 4/15), OUT
4/15/04.
<FONT
face="Courier New">
NYC-I<SPAN
> <SPAN
> Pos Env, Score
3/13(IN > 3/13), OUT 4/15/04.
<FONT
face="Courier New">
Total score is 6 of 28,
last weeks score was 14.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT
face="Courier New">CYCLES<SPAN
> 5 WEEK<SPAN
>
10 WEEK<SPAN
>
20 WEEK<SPAN
>
9 Month<SPAN
>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>WIL-5 <SPAN
> N-Dn,04/13/04<SPAN
> N-Up,03/29/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/05/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/24/04
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>DJ-30 <SPAN
> N-Dn,04/13/04<SPAN
> OB-Up,03/25/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/03/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/24/04
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>RUT-I <SPAN
> N-Dn,04/13/04<SPAN
> OB-Dn,04/16/04<SPAN
> OS-Up,04/02/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/09/04
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>NDX-X <SPAN
> N-Dn,04/13/04<SPAN
> OB-Up,03/25/04<SPAN
> OS-Up,04/05/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/06/04
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>N = Stoch >20 <80, OS = Stoch <20 OUT/Buy, <st1:place
w:st="on">OB = Stoch >80 Hold/Sell
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SECTOR Averages ranked by percent gain from 3/24/03:(Last intermed.
low)
<FONT
face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
Energy <SPAN
> <SPAN
> 7.7<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> Utilities <SPAN
> <SPAN
> -0.2
<FONT
face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
Health
6.6<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> Bd-US<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> -2.8
<FONT
face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
DJ-20 <SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> 6.5<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> Precious<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> -3.8
<FONT
face="Courier New">
<SPAN
> Cap-Smal<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> 4.9<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> Bd-Zero<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> -5.3
<FONT
face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
Hi-Tech <SPAN
> 4.7<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> Realty <SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> -8.1
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>FUNDS: SCHUS.Fam(1071) ranked from 3/24/03:(Last intermed.
low)
<FONT
face="Courier New"> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> INPIX<SPAN
> <SPAN
> 15.6 <SPAN
> <SPAN
> BTTTX<SPAN
>
-9.3
<FONT
face="Courier New">
ATCHX<SPAN
> <SPAN
> 13.7<SPAN
> BJRSX<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> -9.5
<FONT
face="Courier New">
ENPIX<SPAN
> 13.4<SPAN
> RYVNX<SPAN
>
-9.7
<FONT
face="Courier New">
PHPIX<SPAN
> <SPAN
> 12.9<SPAN
> BTTRX<SPAN
> <SPAN
> -11.0
<FONT
face="Courier New">
HCPIX<SPAN
> <SPAN
> 11.4<SPAN
> REPIX<SPAN
> <SPAN
> -14.8
<FONT
face="Courier New">
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SYSTEM(NCALPHA)...TRADE....C/MDY..HOLD.....G/L.......ANN/MDD....ONE
YEAR
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SHARP(Microc2x)...3/31/04....16...SHARP....0.67......50.8/7.9.......53.7
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>LOSDF(Microc2x)...3/31/04....16...LOSDF....0.67......40.4/9.1.......45.1
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MDSDF(Microc2x)...3/31/04....16...MDSDF....0.67......49.4/18.2......50.7
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>NCALP(Microc2x)...3/31/04....16...NCALP....0.67......58.1/12.1......43.4
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500(Microc2x)..3/31/04....11...S&P500...0.75......14.5/9.3.......25.3
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>OTC-C(Microc2x)...3/31/04....11...OTC-C....0.08......32.4/16.7......36.5
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 Buy/Hold...4/16/03...252...SP500..............
9.6/49.2......28.9
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>OTC-C
Buy/Hold....4/16/03...252...OTC-C..............11.2/77.9......43.1
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SHARP:PRCG,RSPF,HRTV
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>LOSDF:PRCG,HRTV,RSPF
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MDSDF:PRCG,HRTV,RSPF
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>NCALP:PRCG,HRTV,RSPF
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<IMG
src="gif00111.gif">
<IMG
src="gif00112.gif">
Yahoo! Groups Links
To visit your group on the web, go to:http://groups.yahoo.com/group/realtraders/
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
Attachment:
Description: ""
Attachment:
Description: ""
|