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I am just a satisfied subscriber and thought some may be interested in
the recent newsletter. I have no affiliation with Rim of Fire...but I do
like many of their ideas.
Sincerely,
John
-------- Original Message --------
Subject: 130% profits in beaten-down Taiwanese blue chip
From: "Rim of Fire" <rof@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Wed, March 31, 2004 1:13 am
To: jvc689@xxxxxxx
==================================================
Rim of Fire March 30, 2004
Investment Alert
==================================================
Taiwan is home to many of
the world's fastest-growing and
most profitable companies.
Now, the worst political
upheaval in a generation is
making them a bargain ...
Taiwan's nimble, highly
entrepreneurial companies are piling up
huge fortunes in the world's most
competitive high-tech industries:
advanced semiconductor chips, lap-top
computers, flat-panel displays, and
digital camera components.
These are great companies to own,
particularly when you can grab up
shares on the cheap, as you can right
now. Last week's presidential
election in Taiwan ended in a bitter
stand-off, paralyzing the government,
and throwing the country and the stock
market into chaos.
In this issue: the best of Taiwan's
beaten-down blue chips. Buy it now, and
I think you could easily make profits
up to 130%, or more, over the next 2
years.
Taiwan, one of Asia's fabled tiger economies,
is among the biggest economic miracles in post-
World War II history. In less than a generation,
this island of 23 million people, off China's
southern coast, went from rural backwater to
vibrant, high-tech powerhouse.
Today, for example, two Taiwanese companies
utterly dominate the global market in one of the
world's toughest and most competitive industries:
contract manufacturing of advanced semiconductor
chips. Between them, Taiwan Semiconductor
Manufacturing (TSMC) and United Microelectronics
(UMC), enjoy a 60% global market share.
Other Taiwanese companies -- such as Hon Hai
Precision, Compal, and Asustek -- lead the world
in contract manufacturing of lap-top computers.
And still two more Taiwanese companies,
Siliconware Precision Industries Limited (SPIL)
and ASE Test, dominate the packaging and testing
of computer chips.
And now, a whole new generation of nimble
Taiwanese start-ups is muscling in to grab
dominant shares in newer technologies, such as
flat-panel displays and digital camera components.
As a rule, companies like these tend to be
highly entrepreneurial, generate large returns on
shareholders' capital, and employ very little
debt. In short, they're great businesses to own.
And right now, you can buy them on the cheap,
thanks to Taiwan's biggest political upheaval
since the Chinese Nationalists, defeated by Mao
Zedong in the Chinese Civil War, fled to the
island in 1949.
Last weekend's presidential election ended
with incumbent president, Chen Shui-bian, the
apparent victor by a margin of only just over
29,000 votes out of nearly 13 million votes cast.
This razor-thin margin -- less than 50.1% to
49.9% -- was far short of a convincing win.
Opposition leaders were quick to brand him a
cheat and demanded a recount. Since then,
supporters of both sides have taken to the
streets. As I write this, crowds of protestors
are camped outside the presidential palace in
Taipei, and there's no end to the stalemate in
sight.
Over 500,000 people took to the streets of
Taipei over this past weekend, demanding President
Chen stand aside. And meanwhile, mainland China
is making rumbling noises about intervening.
Getting shot in the belly rallies the
"sympathy" vote
The problems began the day before the
election when President Chen was apparently shot
and wounded in what many believed to be a bungled
assassination. This occurred as he traveled
through the streets of his home town, in the
country's rural south, in an open-top jeep.
Chen's wound was minor -- the bullet grazed
his stomach, leaving a quarter-inch-deep furrow.
This immediately led the opposition to claim the
shooting was a sham -- and deliberately staged to
rally the "sympathy" vote in an election race Chen
otherwise seemed destined to lose.
Another theory is that mainland China was
involved. Chen has long been a thorn in Beijing's
side, as a fiercely patriotic advocate of
Taiwanese independence and champion of democracy.
So, it's not inconceivable that radical
elements in Beijing were out to eliminate him, and
deliberately plunge the island into chaos. The
last thing Beijing wants is a vibrant and well-
functioning democracy in Taiwan, because it so
dramatically highlights the lack of political
freedom in China itself.
By the same token, it's also in the interest
of the Chinese Communist Party to see the current
political stalemate in Taiwan drag on. The longer
protests and riots last, the easier it is for
Beijing to argue that "democracy" is the last
thing mainland China needs.
Determining a clear winner could
take weeks, giving you time
to build a position in great blue chips
on the cheap ...
One of the benefits of America's much-
maligned Electoral College is that it provides a
mechanism for making a clear choice in tight
election races where the popular vote is so evenly
divided it's difficult to say who really won.
Currently, Taiwan has NO mechanism to do the
same thing. Which is why recounts, and recounts
of the recount -- complete with bickering about
spoiled ballots and charges of vote-rigging --
could drag on for weeks.
All this is handing you a golden opportunity
to scoop up some great bargains in Taiwanese
shares. Buy shares in the best, beaten-down, blue
chips now, and I think you'll have quick 12% to
25% gains in a month or two, as the crisis abates.
Plus, you'll wind up making many times that
if you hold for the long term. Taiwan's economy
is growing twice as fast as America's. And the
present political crisis is merely a hiccup in the
long-term context.
Scoop up great blue chips
battered down by a temporary crisis,
and ride them up to huge profits
as the turmoil abates
We've used this Rim of Fire strategy again
and again. For instance, after ex-Indonesian
dictator Suharto was thrown out of office,
subscribers banked gains of 100%, 112%, and 140%
on three different trades in Indonesian
communications giant, Indosat. One trade took
just 3 days!
When ethnic violence tore apart the Solomon
Islands in the remote South Pacific back in 2001,
Rim of Fire subscribers picked up shares in Delta
Gold -- which had mining interests there -- for a
song. We recommended selling half the shares 8
months later for 112% profits, and the other half
for 172% profits when the company became the
target of a takeover battle.
Just 6 months ago, when Al Qaeda terrorists
blew up the Jakarta Marriot, I recommended you
scoop up shares of blue-chip Indonesian telephone
firm, Telkom Indonesia. If you followed that
recommendation, you already have 18% gains, with
more on the way.
In each case, we laid the foundation for
substantial profits by timing the purchase of
these blue-chip stocks to coincide with temporary
crises that sent their share prices tumbling. The
current opportunity in Taiwanese stocks is no
different.
When the Taiwan stock market reopened after
the cliff-hanger election, the reaction was swift.
The Taiex index plunged by nearly the maximum
allowable daily amount of 7%, falling 6.7% within
minutes of the open. (Trading curbs in Taiwan
prevent larger falls -- just as special rules
apply on US stock exchanges during periods of
extraordinary upheaval, such as the week after
9/11, for example.)
The index fell another 2.9% the following
day, bringing total losses to nearly 10% in 2
days. Even now, trading remains very jittery.
Amid the hysteria gripping the country, it's
hardly surprising some investors have lost their
heads. But stepping back, and looking at things
in a medium-to-long-term context, their fears are
unfounded.
No matter who finally emerges as the winner
of the election, the winner knows his future
depends on delivering rising living standards.
And that means Taiwan's business-friendly, free-
market capitalist system will remain, and with
it, Taiwan's economic growth will continue.
That's why I urge you to scoop up some great
Taiwanese blue-chip stocks now at bargain prices.
These are wonderful investments at any time, but
today, when you can pick them up on the cheap
because of the electoral crisis, these are
especially good investments.
Right now, Taiwan's dominant phone
company trades for just 12 times
earnings and yields 6.3%!
Chung Hwa Telecom (New York Stock Exchange:
CHT) is Taiwan's equivalent of AT&T, Verizon,
BellSouth, SBC, Earthlink, and AOL, all rolled
into one.
It dominates the local, long-distance and,
international fixed-line phone business on the
island. It also has the biggest wireless
business. And on top of that, it's the leading
provider of internet and data communications
services.
Talk about a wide reach! Taiwan's total
population is 23 million. And Chung Hwa has over
20 million customers.
This is the bluest of blue chips. And I
can't see that the country's dominant telephone
utility is going to see its business hurt in the
least by any lingering election-related
uncertainty.
On top of that, Chung Hwa is known as a very
well managed firm. And it has won awards for its
excellent treatment of small investors.
The company also trades on the New York Stock
Exchange in ADR form. So, it's easy for you to
buy. You don't need to worry about opening a
foreign brokerage account.
Go ahead and scoop up some shares in Chung
Hwa Telecom now. They've fallen to just US$17 and
change, as a result of Taiwan's election crisis.
That represents a P/E of just 12x, versus 22x
for the S&P 500 index of leading US stocks, and a
whopping 28x for the average telecom stock in
America.
In other words, buying Chung Hwa right now
gets you in at nearly a 60% discount to its peers.
That's what I call a great deal!
25% profits in 2 months on a
post-crisis snap-back
and up to 130% in the next 2 years
I'm looking for Chung Hwa to quickly rebound
and trade at 15x earnings sometime in the next
couple of months. That's still only just over
HALF what the average telecom stock sells for in
the US. But it's enough to hand you fast, 25%
profits.
Longer term you'll do even better, as
Taiwan's economy keeps expanding at about double
the long-term average rate of growth in America,
and Chung Hwa's P/E multiple catches up to its US
peers. Should that happen, based on current
numbers, you'll be looking at over 130% profits --
in as little as 2 years.
Better still, based on today's beaten-down
stock price, Chung Hwa will pay you a fat 6.3%
dividend yield while you wait. Compared to money
in the bank these days, earning less than 1%,
that's a great return all by itself -- even if the
stock stays dead in the water.
Want even more? I also think it quite likely
that as time goes by and Chung Hwa's business
matures, it'll split into several companies,
spinning off the shares to its stockholders.
That's what happened in America as the phone
companies matured. If you hold on to Chung Hwa
for the long term, that'll just be gravy on top of
everything else.
So, call your broker now and use the
temporary plunge in Taiwan stocks to start
building your position in Chung Hwa Telecom on the
cheap. Again, it trades on the Big Board and the
New York Stock Exchange. I'm adding CHT to the
Rim of Fire model portfolio with a 5% weighting.
For more information, or to get an annual
report, you can write to the company at:
Chung Hwa Telecom Co. Ltd., 21-3 Hsinyi Road,
Section 1, Taipei, Taiwan. Or, visit the website:
www.cht.com.tw.
New percentages for the Rim of Fire model
portfolio (including trading instructions executed
since last issue) are: 5% Chung Hwa Telecom, 3%
Taiwan Fund, 3% Sherritt, 8% ATK, 9% Lukoil, 1.5%
Mobile Telesys, 3% Globe Telecom, 5% Zimplats
(second trade), 5% Golden Telecom, 5% Bonlac
Notes, 3% Telkom Indonesia, 5% Impala Platinum,
5% Noble Group, 3% Kinross Gold, 3% Fujian Zijin
Mining, 5% American Eagle Gold Bullion Coins, 5%
Neptune Orient Lines, 5%, Randgold & Exploration
(2nd Trade), 5% Highlands Pacific, and 13.5% cash.
And for the long-term, buy-and-hold
portfolio: 10% Expeditors, 90% cash.
Taiwanese blue chips on sale at 9% off ...
Another easy way to get exposure to the
rebound coming in Taiwan stocks is to buy shares
in the closed-end Taiwan Fund (NYSE: TWN).
This company's only activity is investing in
Taiwanese stocks. It owns big chunks of all the
dominant Taiwanese tech stocks that power the
economy -- companies such as TSMC, UMC, Hon Hai
Precision, and AU Optronics, are all among the top
half-a-dozen holdings. And as they grow and
prosper so will the Taiwan Fund.
Even before it plunged 9.3% on the first
trading day after the election results came out,
this stock was a great deal. That's because,
while it's crammed full of shareholdings in all
the best blue-chip Taiwanese companies, it trades
at about a 9% discount to the sum of its parts.
Admittedly, some closed-end funds can, and
do, end up trading at discounts for years on end.
But the good news in the case of the Taiwan Fund
is that the trend for more than 5 years now has
been for the discount to narrow, not widen.
Over the last year, for instance (to the end
of February), the fund's share price had increased
by 62%, substantially higher than the 53% increase
in the net value of all its investments over the
same period. Over the last 5 years, it's been
much the same story.
I don't see why that won't continue once the
current political storm in Taiwan blows over and
the fund's share price resumes its advance.
Eventually the discount may disappear completely,
further boosting your returns.
I also like the Taiwan Fund because it's
managed by HSBC Asset Management, part of Hong
Kong's leading banking group. They've had their
own analysts on the ground in Asia since 1865!
So, it's not some armchair US asset management
outfit that's pulling the strings from New York.
The Taiwan Fund trades on the New York Stock
Exchange under the ticker symbol TWN. As I write,
it's trading for $12.89. And the net asset value
of the company's shares is $14.14. Call your
broker and buy some today.
I'm adding TWN to the Rim of Fire model
portfolio with a 3% weighting.
For more information on the company, write
to: The Taiwan Fund, Inc., 225 Franklin Street
Boston, Massachusetts 02110, USA. Tel:
+1-800-636-9242. Or, visit the website at:
www.thetaiwanfund.com.
==================================================
Rim Company News
Mobile Telesys: why 299% profits isn't enough!
Wow, what a performer! If you bought shares
in Russian mobile phone giant Mobile Telesys
(NYSE: MBT) when I first recommended it, you're
now sitting on gains of up to 299%.
In fact, if you bought it at almost ANY stage
over the past two years, I'm sure you're grinning
from ear to ear at the results. The good news is
-- it's not over yet.
With the shares now at $121, I'm convinced
that management will soon announce a stock split.
When they do, it could trigger a whole new wave of
buying.
The demand for the stock is certainly out
there. Just recently, the Russian authorities
announced they would allow greater foreign
ownership in Mobile Telesys. As a result,
another 5% of the total shares outstanding are
going to be made available for trading in ADR
form. That's bullish in itself.
But another possible reason for this move to
allow greater foreign ownership could be the
interest shown in Russian assets by foreign
telecom carriers -- such as the world's largest
mobile phone company, Britain's Vodafone.
I'm not saying it's going to happen. But the
possibility of a takeover bid is certainly there.
So, the last thing you want to do is sell your
Mobile Telesys shares. Hang on to them. The 299%
gains you have so far are spectacular. But they
could be about to get a whole lot bigger still.
Noble Group -- up 100%
and climbing
Noble Group (Singapore Stock Exchange: NOBG;
US OTC: NOBGF) is a Singapore-listed, Hong Kong-
based commodity trading group and bulk shipping
fleet owner.
This company is making a fortune as a middle-
man sourcing commodities from suppliers in
countries such as Brazil and Australia to supply
hungry end users in China.
I urged you to buy Noble back in the November
issue of Rim of Fire Investment Alert, when it was
selling for just S$2.51. The stock's been
climbing ever since. In fact, it just hit S$5.
Since my February 23 Flash Alert, the stock
has risen another 20% or so. But, I still see no
reason to sell.
China is as hungry as ever for the raw
materials that Noble deals in. Bulk commodity
shipping freight rates are sky-high. And, thanks
to its rapidly increasing share price, Noble Group
has now at last started to appear on the radar
screens of big institutional investors. Obviously,
this is a very bullish development for the share
price.
The company has still not set the date, but a
4-for-1 stock split is coming up sometime in the
near future as well. The split has been approved
by the Singapore Stock Exchange, but it also needs
to be approved at a general meeting of
shareholders, to be held shortly.
You, or your broker, should be receiving all
the details direct from the company. I suggest
you vote FOR the split. It could prove the
catalyst for a whole new wave of buying in the
stock.
Bottom line: the 100% gains you have to date
are great. But, you can look forward to even
bigger profits to come. So, hold your Noble Group
shares.
37% profits taken in WMC Resources
On March 10, a sharp one-day fall in the
share price triggered the protective, trailing
stop order I had set for you on Australian nickel
miner WMC Resources (NYSE: WMC). If you followed
my instructions (which are set out on the back
page, below the Model Portfolio in each issue),
you should have sold your shares the following
day.
That netted you profits of 37%, based on my
initial recommendation at $10.30, in the August
2003 issue of Rim of Fire Investment Alert.
I'm still very bullish on nickel, as well as
WMC's secondary products, copper and uranium.
Medium- to long-term, the rapid urbanization of
China is going to keep demand for ALL these metals
growing at a rate of knots.
But short-term, I'm expecting more volatility
in both the price of base metals and in WMC's
share price. Accordingly, my advice is to use
this to your advantage.
Specifically, I want you to place a limit
order to repurchase your WMC shares lower down
than where the stock is currently trading, so that
the next time there's a sharp sell-off, you'll be
in the market snapping up shares.
Call your broker and tell him you want to
place a good-till-canceled limit order to buy WMC
at US$13.65 or better.
If you didn't execute my trailing stop
instruction, don't worry. Just keep holding your
WMC shares. I'm as bullish as ever on this
company.
Terrorist bombing in Madrid and
Israeli assassination
of Hamas leader
send gold blasting up
out of its trading
range; so, keep
all your gold shares ...
In the wake of the Madrid train bombings,
which killed over 200 and wounded another 2,000 on
March 11, fear and tension are escalating again
worldwide. As a result, investors are fleeing to
the safety of gold once more.
Gold has climbed by over 5%, with prices back
at 2-month highs above $420 an ounce, after
breaking out of a month-long trading range between
$390 and $405.
As a result, your shares in Kinross Gold
(NYSE: KGC), Fujian Zijin Mining (Hong Kong Stock
Exchange: 2899), and Randgold & Exploration (US
OTC: RANGY), as well as your gold bullion coins,
have all been bouncing back off their recent lows.
This is hardly surprising. Gold is the
traditional hedge against great international
turmoil. And following the Madrid terrorist
bombings, worldwide fears of further attacks are
as high as they've been since September 11.
Adding to the tension, Israel has just
stirred up more hatred in the Middle East, with
its assassination of Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed
Yassin.
America is braced for more atrocities. And
countries whose leaders supported George Bush's
invasion of Iraq -- as Spain did -- are living in
constant fear that attacks on their own soil are
inevitable, too.
Like many American cities have done, London
has already staged mock terrorist attacks in
preparation. And, a couple of weekends ago, it
was Sydney's turn to test how it might cope.
From the point of view of Al Qaeda, their
attacks in Spain were highly encouraging. They
were enough to overthrow the Spanish government!
Almost immediately, the opposition candidate
who won the election -- having come from nowhere
after the Madrid attack-- vowed to pull Spanish
troops out of Iraq.
With elections also due in both America and
Australia toward the end of the year, you can bet
that Al Qaeda will be targeting these countries,
aiming for the exact same results.
In other words, the current up-tick in
terrorist fears isn't going to dissipate any time
soon. And, that's very bullish indeed for gold.
The killings in Madrid and on the Gaza Strip
are terrible enough. But, just imagine how high
gold will go when the bombs start going off in
Sydney and Washington D.C.!
Bottom line: you want to keep holding your
shares in ALL of the three gold stocks that are in
my recommended portfolio. Not to mention your
bullion coins. They're all going much higher
between now and the end of the year.
Golden Telecom's profits leap 86%;
your shares are up 21%
and climbing
Golden Telecom (US OTC: GLDN), the Russian
telecom start-up I like to call the "AOL of
Russia," just reported its fourth-quarter and
full-year 2003 earnings results. They were
spectacular. Sales rose 81% for the year, and net
profits climbed 86%.
What's more, I'm expecting another 50% increase
in both sales and profits for 2004. That means
the stock is still great value, trading on a P/E
multiple of just 15x forward earnings.
You're sitting on 21% gains in Golden Telecom
so far on my initial July 2003 recommendation.
But you don't want to sell yet. This is a long-
term growth story.
Just as Mobile Telesys has handed you up to
299% gains so far, as a result of the Russian cell
phone industry taking off, so it will be with
Golden Telecom, as the internet and data
communications revolution sweeps Russia. You want
to stay on board for that.
Platinum blasts up to 24-year highs
above US$900 an ounce;
so keep holding your Implats and
Zimplats shares ...
Fueled by strong demand for platinum jewelry
in China, and increasing use in auto catalysts,
platinum prices have broken through the US$900 an
ounce barrier for the first time in 24 years.
So, it's a little surprising that share
prices for our two platinum stocks, Impala
Platinum (US OTC: IMPUY) and Zimbabwe Platinum
Mines (ASX: ZIM; US OTC: ZBBEF) are stuck in the
mud. I decided to do a little digging to find out
why.
Turns out that these stocks are suffering
from some negative market sentiment just now.
Reason: Implats leaked a Zimbabwean government
discussion paper, which talks about changing the
"black empowerment" shareholding rules in the
country.
The new rules -- which are a long way from
being implemented, I might add -- would require
private mining operations to make up to 49% of
their shares available to blacks, and public
companies -- such as Zimplats -- to make 25% of
their stock available. It is unclear if this is
to apply to existing operations, or only to new
ventures that are yet to be approved.
Zimplats has already made a 15% stake
available to a black shareholder consortium. And
indeed, this arrangement satisfies a long-term
agreement Zimplats has had with the Zimbabwean
government, ever since they first began doing
business in the country. So they are saying that
their mining lease would be exempt from the new
directives in any case.
At this point, nothing about the proposed new
empowerment legislation is final. And, the
leaking of the discussion paper by Implats seems
an odd move, as they have much to lose from it --
as 82% owner of Zimplats, and part owner of
several other Zimbabwean mining projects.
Could it be Impala is trying to knock the
Zimplats share price down a bit in advance of
another attempt to frighten off the remaining
minority shareholders? You never know.
Last year, you recall, the Impala board used
scare tactics to frighten a number of shareholders
in Zimplats to sell out at a lowball price of only
A$4.08 a share. Maybe they want another shot at
buying more shares on the cheap. I certainly
wouldn't put it past them.
Obviously, I'm watching developments closely.
I'm also in touch with Zimplats founder Peter
Vanderspuy. He's the largest minority
shareholder, with about 7% of the company. Plus,
he's on the spot in Harare, the Zimbabwean
capital. I'll let you know the minute you need to
take any action.
You're still sitting on over 90% profits in
Zimplats. Keep holding your shares.
Meanwhile, your position in Implats remains
near break-even. But like Zimplats, it's due for
another leg up on the back of surging platinum
prices. And I think that's likely as soon as the
situation in Zimbabwe clarifies. So hold your
shares. And ... stay tuned.
[Portfolio Omitted --
please see
PDF Version attached]
==================================================
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on any of the recommendations herein, you must
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of interest, we neither accept client funds for
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securities mentioned in this publication should
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flatly promise no front-running. If any of us
has a long-standing position in one of these
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violating this policy will be immediately
fired. Copyright c 2004 by ROF International,
Inc. All rights reserved. Executive Editor: Bob
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Bob Czeschin has a long-standing position in
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==================================================
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RoF_Mar30_2004 Issue.pdf
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