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The market is tightly wound, so a lot of
energy has been stored. With the bullish divergences, the direction should be
strongly up and this morning is proximate to the upper end of the rectangle. The
best indication of the market's health will be the quality of any upside
breakout. NQ's traded better than the ES yesterday and I would expect that to
continue for a bit. The SP COT commercials moved to slightly bullish last week
and the ND commercials moved to strongly bullish which is what they did just
prior to the 2000 top. The scenario which would really cause some pain would be
a sharp rally to the outstanding SPX 1073 range (triple top into March 2002)
followed by a major drop however I am not betting that we get to a marginal new
high. Any good rally here should be a gift to the shorts.
Earl
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Sent: Wednesday, March 24, 2004 7:57
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] SP 3-24-04 Bullish
Divergence?
Watch for NASDAQ
that is the key,
for 3 days it DID hold 1900 as bottom
it also performed today better than the sp500
if we can break above 1950 and sp above 1107
than all the shorts will run to cover,
however
the weekly Mclullen osc on volume and breath are
still bearish
so,
my best guess is a failed rally attempt to the 20 day m/a and then
collapse (1127-1130) sp cash
Ben
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
EarlA
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, March 24, 2004 9:28
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] SP 3-24-04 Bullish
Divergence?
We've had bullish divergences in
breadth models and momentum measures for days now with no bounce worth
mentioning. I think there is significant risk that this thing falls out of
the bottom of the rectangle.
Earl
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=delta88343@xxxxxxx
href="">delta88343@xxxxxxx
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, March 24, 2004 6:27
PM
Subject: [RT] SP 3-24-04 Bullish
Divergence?
Is there the beginnings of some bullish divergence here?
As I stated in my previous email, we are approaching a period in time
where the rotation of the points can flip flop.
Though we are approaching a projected low, it could be come a
high due to an "in between point" which could be the potential low forming
now. If we then rise to the pending projected point due 3/30 +/- we would
have had an inversion (low point becomes high) and then the remainder of
the cycle points should then follow suite (unless we have a double
inversion).
Is anyone's work projecting a move up over the next 4+/- days. Though
stochastics are not totally reliable, we are showing some oversold
conditions based on my stoch settings.
Time will tell.
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