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Like everything else, whether it be the sky is
falling or that we are on the yellow brick road, there is a modicum of truth in
the story. It is up to the trader to be aware of both. There are
always two trades on the table at the same time. One for each
scenario. The object is to find the one that is dominant for the time
frame that you are trading, if you trade based upon fundamental analysis.
If you use fundamental analysis to select something to trade, in this case gold
or the yen, then it has served its purpose. Is the story true or
false? Who really cares? It has served its purpose. It has given two
futures to look at and analyze based upon the technical system I use. Is
there sufficient volatility in each to trade on the time frames that I like to
trade? Part of my analysis will tell me that. Are they going up or
down? My analysis will tell me that also? Will what the
article says effect my trading? No. My system will tell me what to
do. The article provided to items to look at and analyze.
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Joe
Duffy
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, March 21, 2004 6:32
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] gold, yen, dollar and
inflation.
Ira as you know better then most virtually everytime you
a see a sky is falling scenario in the financial markets it (1) always seems
so plausible (2) never happens.
The Japanese have thrown their own domestic money market
into a tailspin. The demand for money in Japan can no longer be financed by
selling Japanese Treasuries as rates at both ends of the curve, but especially
the short end, have risen quite a lot. This was just based on the demand
for money for FX intervention. As well the US has
formally requested the Japanese stop intervention in the FX market.
For these reasons as well as Japanese repatriation
flows expect to see a sharp curtailment of the Japanese involvement.
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
mr.ira
To: <A title=Undisclosed-Recipient:;
href="">Undisclosed-Recipient:;
Sent: Sunday, March 21, 2004 12:21
AM
Subject: [RT] gold, yen, dollar and
inflation.
Here is another opinion on what is happening in
the markets. He is also looking at inflation or stagflation and its
effect up0on the markets.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0
valign="top">
<FONT
class=ART_TITLE>Saturday, March 20,
2004, 5:53:00 PM EST<IMG height=5
src="gif00080.gif" width=1
border=0>Gold
Community Heads Up<IMG height=5
src="gif00080.gif" width=1
border=0><FONT
class=ART_DATE> Author:
Jim Sinclair<IMG height=5
src="gif00080.gif" width=1
border=0>
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#999999
border=0>
Japanese Authorities May
Cease Yen-Selling
Interventions Informed discussions
in Japan concerning the possibility that the Bank of Japan (BOJ)
might cease intervention in the yen is being seen in the
currency trading fraternity as a possible trap for the dollar
bears in terms of the yen.
However, reports of these discussions
lend credence to my sources who argue that the Federal Reserve
is scared to death of a potential inflationary price explosion
caused by Japanese market intervention.
The real purpose for that
intervention is nothing less than keeping the world's equity
markets intact by flooding it with liquidity via the purchase of
all the dollars raised in this process under the management of
the NY Federal Reserve Bank. I do not believe the
BOJ can simply walk away from intervention so my feeling is
there will be some technically-timed intervention by the BOJ in
the dollar/yen equation. Nonetheless, the use of this dangerous
“Made in Japan” Bernanke Electronic Money Printing Press has run
its course. The damage has been done. It will take
generations to set this right.
A deceleration in the use of this
Japanese monetary experiment at the request of the Federal
Reserve now places the world's equity and bond markets in
potential jeopardy, setting up the probability of Stagflation
and the inclusion of inflation into the weak dollar
equation. All that being said, I am changing
my strategy in gold and suggesting you do the same. Having
bought correctly and made some sales into strength, I will now
hold the balance of my position, adding to it on any price
weakness but not making any further sells at these levels.
If gold chops down in this breakout
phase, I will simply go to a full long position according to my
means and risk acceptance. I might consider a "Texas Spread" in
gold if the price is right over the next week .
The impact of running up historically
huge dollar amounts of intervention and splashing it willy-nilly
into the bond market to maintain a false interest rate and
then falling away hard from that volume will push gold to
significantly higher prices in my opinion. We will
still buy weakness and sell strength but the major change is
that we want a better price on the sells.
I'll keep you
posted.
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