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Re: [RT] crude oil at 13 year high



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Dan-
 
I'm sure you are correct.  Must have been 
having a senior moment.
 
Best regards,
Chas
====
<BLOCKQUOTE 
>
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV 
  >From: 
  Dan 
  Goncharoff 
  To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  
  Sent: Thursday, March 18, 2004 10:04 
  AM
  Subject: Re: [RT] crude oil at 13 year 
  high
  TIPS don't particularly care, which is the point. They will 
  probably outperform gold in a deflationary environment.I suggest you 
  do some research about them.RegardsDanGCharles Meyer 
  wrote:
  
    
    That's assuming inflation of course.  
    Bonds hate deflation.  
     
    chas
    <BLOCKQUOTE 
    >
      <DIV 
      >----- 
      Original Message ----- 
      <DIV 
      >From: 
      Dan 
      Goncharoff 
      <DIV 
      >To: 
      <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
      href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
      
      <DIV 
      >Sent: 
      Thursday, March 18, 2004 7:47 AM
      <DIV 
      >Subject: 
      Re: [RT] crude oil at 13 year high
      Instead of T-Bills, consider TIPS (Treasury 
      Inflation-Protected Securities). No maturities to roll 
      over.RegardsDanGCharles Meyer wrote:
      
        
        

        Cash, (US T-Bills), Gold, or a combo 
        of the two.  Inflation or Deflation?  Keep a ratio 
        chart of cash gold divided by the
        30 year Treasury.  This will show you 
        the daily struggle of the two forces; and which one is currently winning 
        battles. 
         
        Re conspiracy; a famous supreme court 
        justice once said (sorry I don't recall his name) not to mistake a 
        conspiracy for
        what can be ascribed to simple 
        incompetence; and of course there is a lot of that inherent in 
        bureaucracy.
         
        chas  
        <BLOCKQUOTE 
        >
          <DIV 
          >----- 
          Original Message ----- 
          <DIV 
          >From: 
          Jim 
          White 
          <DIV 
          >To: 
          <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
          href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
          
          <DIV 
          >Sent: 
          Thursday, March 18, 2004 6:47 AM
          <DIV 
          >Subject: 
          Re: [RT] crude oil at 13 year high
          
          I just finished a book that describes 
          what could happen in a full financial meltdown. It's a novel by James 
          Cook called "Full Faith & Credit". Pretty scary but enlightening 
          reading.
           
          In that vain, could some of you share 
          your strategy for asset protection and profit should such an unwinding 
          happen.I don't have one yet but am beginning the planning and would 
          appreciate the thoughts of others.
           
          Jim
          <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
          >
            <DIV 
            >----- 
            Original Message ----- 
            <DIV 
            >From: 
            Bob 
            
            <DIV 
            >To: 
            <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
            href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
            
            <DIV 
            >Sent: 
            Thursday, March 18, 2004 3:18 AM
            <DIV 
            >Subject: 
            Re: [RT] crude oil at 13 year high
            
            This conspiracy stuff has been 
            discussed on this forum going back to the early bubble years in the 
            mid-90's, and back then I subscribed to that theory too.  I 
            also believed that the government was actively involved in propping 
            up the stock market but after seeing what happened to the markets 
            since the bubble popped I no longer believe that 
either.
             
            I think the questionable economic 
            numbers we get are due mostly, if not completely, to the normal 
            inefficiency and incompetence you get out of any massive 
            bureaucracy.  Doesn't "CPI excluding food and energy" sound a 
            lot like "EPS of xx cents excluding one time charges that recur 
            every quarter"?  How about the headline Labor number we get 
            every month that doesn't include independent contractors or the 
            self-employed?  But there's a Household number that does 
            include that number which is rarely mentioned, however I suspect 
            there are problems with how that number is calculated 
            too.
             
            The other item that argues against 
            any meaningful "cooking of the books" is that these massive 
            government agencies are comprised of people from both parties, 
            albeit mostly democrats.  So it's hard to imagine they could 
            maintain a "cover-up" year after year and through different 
            administrations.  This would be especially true for a 
            republican administration since the media would be in an orgasmic 
            frenzy to cover such a story.
             
            I share the longer term negative view 
            on the equity markets being expressed on this forum, but it's not 
            because of any government conspiracy....it's because of what has 
            transpired in previous post-bubble periods and the length of time it 
            took to truly and fully recover from a financial bubble (15-20 
            years).
             
             
             
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              <DIV 
              >Sent: 
              Wednesday, March 17, 2004 9:41 PM
              <DIV 
              >Subject: 
              [RT] crude oil at 13 year high
              
              Hello
               
              this will filter into higher  
              manufacture cost, transportation, and airlines,
              (good  shorts,)
               
              corporate earnings will decrease as 
              cost increase,
              gov  stats on inflation today 
              phony,
               
              payroll employment  
              decreasing,
               
              they are keeping the # nice until 
              elections,
              then will drop the bomb with REAL 
              numbers
              Ben
               







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