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Group,
These charts are from a free newsletter. Just sign
on up.
<A
href="">http://www.guaranteed-profits.com/
Harry
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
mr.ira
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 3:20
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Fw: 3/6 Report
Thanks for the very interesting charts.
Ira
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">profitok
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Cc: <A title=yacov@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Yacov Twena ; <A
title=bigschmo@xxxxxxxxxxxx href="">vincent
; <A title=u.Stuart-Auslander@xxxxxxx
href="">U. Stuart-Auslander@xxxx
Net (E-mail) ; <A title=SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx
href="">Slawek (E-mail) ; <A title=rmac@xxxxxxxx
href="">Ronald McEwan ; <A title=rginsat@xxxxxxxxxx
href="">Ron Miller (E-mail) ; <A
title=panda2222@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">panda2222@xxxxxxxxxxxxx ; <A
title=ntt-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">ntt-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; <A
title=ketayun@xxxxxxxxxxxxx href="">Kate
(E-mail) ; <A title=Jseaton357@xxxxxxx
href="">Jseaton357@xxxxxxx ; <A
title=Gocycles@xxxxxxx href="">Gocycles@xxxxxxx ;
<A title=urania@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Elizabeth (E-mail) ; <A
title=dcarter888@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">doroty.h ; <A
title=dperrino@xxxxxxxxxxxxx href="">Dom
Perrino
Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 9:39
AM
Subject: [RT] Fw: 3/6 Report
Technical market report for
March 6, 2004The good news is:
<P class=MsoNormal
><SPAN
><SPAN
>·<SPAN
>
The NYSE AD line hit a new cycle high last week.
<P class=MsoNormal
><SPAN
><SPAN
>·<SPAN
>
The number of new lows remains insignificant.
<P class=MsoNormal
><SPAN
><SPAN
>·<SPAN
>
Both the NYSE and NASDAQ new high indicators are
heading upward.
This implies new cycle highs
in the blue chip indices in the next 2-6 weeks.
With the high percentage of
fixed income related issues trading on the NYSE and stocks and bonds running
out of synch for several years, there is good reason to be suspicious of the
current value of the NYSE new high indicator.<SPAN
> That said, let’s have a look at
it:
The chart below shows the Dow
Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE
new highs (calculated on a 52 week trailing basis as reported by the
exchange) (NH) in green. I have
put dates on several of the peaks to help with the time perspective.<SPAN
> The indicator does not adjust for
the total number of issues traded so I have included the figures on the
selected dates:
<SPAN
>Date<SPAN
> <SPAN
> Value of
NH Issues
Traded<SPAN
> <st1:State
w:st="on">NH as a % of issues
traded
<SPAN
>Nov 82<SPAN
>
219<SPAN
>
1940<SPAN
>
11%
<SPAN
>March 86<SPAN
>
288<SPAN
>
2040<SPAN
>
14%
<SPAN
>July 97<SPAN
>
337<SPAN
>
3440<SPAN
>
<SPAN
> 10%
<SPAN
>Jan 2004<SPAN
>
445<SPAN
>
3430<SPAN
>
13%
Notice the indicator peaks
well in advance of a price peak.
<v:shapetype id=_x0000_t75
coordsize="21600,21600" o:spt="75" o:preferrelative="t"
path="m@x@5l@x@11@x@11@x@5xe" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:stroke
joinstyle="miter"><v:f
eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"><v:f
eqn="sum 0 0 @1"><v:f
eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"><v:f
eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"><v:f
eqn="prod @6 1 2"><v:f
eqn="sum @8 21600 0"><v:f
eqn="sum @10 21600 0"><v:path o:extrusionok="f"
gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"><o:lock v:ext="edit"
aspectratio="t"><v:shape id=_x0000_i1025
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="NY-NH-All"><IMG
src="gif00043.gif">
Take a closer look at the
marked periods:
The chart below shows the
period before and after the 1982 peak.
The indicator peaked at about the half way point of the price
run.
<v:shape id=_x0000_i1026
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="NY-NH-1-79-84l"><IMG
src="gif00044.gif">
The next chart shows the
March 86 peak of the indicator followed by a peak in prices about a year and
a half later.
<v:shape id=_x0000_i1027
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="NY-NH-2-83-87"><IMG
src="gif00045.gif">
The next chart shows the
indicator peak in July of 1997 and the price peak two and a half years later
in January 2000.
<v:shape id=_x0000_i1028
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="NY-NH-97-2000"><IMG
src="gif00046.gif">
The last chart in this
series shows where we are now.
The indicator peaked in late January suggesting there
is a lot more room on the upside.
<v:shape id=_x0000_i1029
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="NY-NH-2000-2004"><IMG
src="gif00047.gif">
What about next week?
Nearly all of the charts are
telling the same story as the one below.<SPAN
> The indicator (blue) tries to
force the activity of the index, in this case the Russell 2000 (red), into a
25 day cycle. The indicator is
nearly, but not quite maxed out.
<v:shape id=_x0000_i1030
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="Rut-25cycle"><IMG
src="gif00048.gif">
I pay a lot of attention to
the direction of the NASDAQ new high indicator (10% trend of NASDAQ new
highs) shown in the chart below.
It has turned upward.
<v:shape id=_x0000_i1031
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="OTC-NH"><IMG
src="gif00049.gif">
There is no evidence that
the up move of the past 2 weeks is ending, but the recent (past 2 months)
rhythm of the market suggests it does not have much time left.<SPAN
> There are no notable seasonal
factors at play next week.
I expect the major
indices will be higher on Friday March 12 than they were on Friday March
5.<SPAN
>This
report is free to anyone who wants it, so please tell your friends.They
can sign up at:http://www.guaranteed-profits.comIf it is not for
you, reply with REMOVE in the subject line.Thank you,Mike Burk
W5/L3/T1
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