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Hello EarlA,
Puts rallied on strong market rallie mean only their implied
volatility increased. What is quite natural in the light of strong
price movement (dependless of its direction).
Best regards,
Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
Friday, March 5, 2004, 6:42:59 PM, you wrote:
E> Fascinating market action ... SPX has rallied to 1162.99 (within my
E> target range) while the price of the June 1150 puts I hold (and had
E> orders for more) has also rallied. This suggests that the market is
E> putting in a blow-off. Had to short emini since it looks like they
E> won't fill my put order.
E> I assume that this rally is all about the perceived notion that the Fed won't raise rates so the market can party longer. Not a thought to the fact that continued employment problems will lead to
E> reduced consumption and other (economic and political) fall-out from reduced consumer confidence. Foreign currencies are rallying hard which means even higher energy prices are in the cards.
E> Earl
E> ----- Original Message -----
E> From: EarlA
E> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
E> Sent: Friday, March 05, 2004 6:11 AM
E> Subject: Re: [RT] sp500/nasdaq top
E> SPX is very close to long standing target range of 1060-1073 which includes: 50% retracement to ATH, 200% expansion of Oct02-Mar03 swing, and Dec01-Mar02 triple top.
E> I closed out long emini position just ahead of Thursday's close leaving in place a SPX put established on Wednesday. I also have orders working to add to put position on any rally from monthly
E> Employment Lie. During the past couple of weeks I've closed out all trading positions in stocks and now hold significant cash position. I still like energy stocks and hold core positions to which
E> I will add during any correction in equities.
E> There should be good support in the 1015+- area which includes the 38% retracement to the Mar03 low and the Jun-Jul03 highs. If this area holds, then another run to higher highs (1250+-) could
E> be in the cards. On a fundamental basis, the market is richly priced and risks are strongly to the downside should the public lose its taste for speculation.
E> Earl
E> ----- Original Message -----
E> From: profitok
E> To: astrofin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
E> Cc: Yacov Twena ; vincent ; U. Stuart-Auslander@xxxx Net (E-mail) ; Slawek (E-mail) ; Ronald McEwan ; Ron Miller (E-mail) ; panda2222@xxxxxxxxxxxxx ; ntt-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; Ned Markson
E> (E-mail) ; Mike Burk ; Kate (E-mail) ; Jseaton357@xxxxxxx ; Gocycles@xxxxxxx ; Elizabeth (E-mail) ; doroty.h ; Dom Perrino ; Dan C (E-mail) ; Cyclesman (E-mail)
E> Sent: Thursday, March 04, 2004 9:43 PM
E> Subject: [RT] sp500/nasdaq top
E> Most likely 3/5/04 should be a top for a while
E> get out of longs and if you have long term gains consider writing calls
E> most likely next is 1050 on sp
E> if I am wrong, the max upside is only 10-15 sp points
E> best regards
E> Ben
E> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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