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Fascinating market action ... SPX has rallied to 1162.99 (within my target
range) while the price of the June 1150 puts I hold (and had orders
for more) has also rallied. This suggests that the market is putting in a
blow-off. Had to short emini since it looks like they won't fill my put
order.
I assume that this rally is all about the perceived notion that the Fed
won't raise rates so the market can party longer. Not a thought to the fact
that continued employment problems will lead to reduced consumption and other
(economic and political) fall-out from reduced consumer confidence. Foreign
currencies are rallying hard which means even higher energy prices are in the
cards.
Earl
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
EarlA
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, March 05, 2004 6:11
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] sp500/nasdaq top
SPX is very close to long standing target range of 1060-1073 which
includes: 50% retracement to ATH, 200% expansion of Oct02-Mar03 swing,
and Dec01-Mar02 triple top.
I closed out long emini position just ahead of Thursday's close leaving
in place a SPX put established on Wednesday. I also have orders working
to add to put position on any rally from monthly Employment Lie. During
the past couple of weeks I've closed out all trading positions in stocks and
now hold significant cash position. I still like energy stocks and hold core
positions to which I will add during any correction in equities.
There should be good support in the 1015+- area which includes the 38%
retracement to the Mar03 low and the Jun-Jul03 highs. If this area holds, then
another run to higher highs (1250+-) could be in the cards. On a fundamental
basis, the market is richly priced and risks are strongly to the downside
should the public lose its taste for speculation.
Earl
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">profitok
To: <A title=astrofin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">astrofin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Cc: <A title=yacov@xxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Yacov Twena ; <A
title=bigschmo@xxxxxxxxxxxx href="">vincent
; <A title=u.Stuart-Auslander@xxxxxxx
href="">U. Stuart-Auslander@xxxx
Net (E-mail) ; <A title=SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx
href="">Slawek (E-mail) ; <A title=rmac@xxxxxxxx
href="">Ronald McEwan ; <A title=rginsat@xxxxxxxxxx
href="">Ron Miller (E-mail) ; <A
title=panda2222@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">panda2222@xxxxxxxxxxxxx ; <A
title=ntt-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">ntt-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; <A
title=cnedgo@xxxxxxxx href="">Ned Markson (E-mail)
; Mike Burk ; <A
title=ketayun@xxxxxxxxxxxxx href="">Kate
(E-mail) ; <A title=Jseaton357@xxxxxxx
href="">Jseaton357@xxxxxxx ; <A
title=Gocycles@xxxxxxx href="">Gocycles@xxxxxxx ;
<A title=urania@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Elizabeth (E-mail) ; <A
title=dcarter888@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">doroty.h ; <A
title=dperrino@xxxxxxxxxxxxx href="">Dom
Perrino ; <A title=dan.danc@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Dan C (E-mail) ; <A
title=cyclesman@xxxxxxxxxx href="">Cyclesman
(E-mail)
Sent: Thursday, March 04, 2004 9:43
PM
Subject: [RT] sp500/nasdaq top
Most likely 3/5/04 should be a top
for a while
get out of longs and if you have long
term gains consider writing calls
most likely next is 1050 on
sp
if I am wrong, the max upside is only 10-15 sp
points
best regards
Ben
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