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I blinked twice and it was back ... we will see how this pans out but odds
strongly favor the correction.
Earl
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>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Mark Simms
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, January 21, 2004 11:27
AM
Subject: RE: [RT] Earl
If you blinked,
you missed the anticipated dollar downward correction....
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>
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: <A
href="">mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Wednesday, January 21, 2004
12:06 PMTo: <A
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject:
Re: [RT] Earl
Very nice summary. Nice to hear from you
again. Ira.
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
EarlA
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, January 21, 2004
8:47 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Earl
Howard, I've shifted my emphasis a good deal and I'm doing very
little ST trading.
a) During past 9 months have built a major position in energy stocks,
many of which are high dividend paying Canadian Royalty Trusts with
smattering of American Trusts, Drillers, E&P, Services and even a bit
of coal. Short term twists and turns aside, I think energy is in a long
term bull market ... the major investment play for the next few years, if
not longer.
b) Heavy position in muni-CEF's is gone ... I don't believe the
government CPI numbers and the economic pumping is sure to raise
inflation. Only long position I hold in bonds is in FAX which pays north
of 6 1/2% ... will probably add on A$ correction. I still poke at bond
futures now and then ... currently light long for a bounce, then looking
to put on shorts to hold.
c) Currencies ... closed all longs in foreign currencies 6-8 weeks
ago missing the last leg of the rally. I think that the dollar decline is
in danger of reversing for a correction. I may attempt a swing short in CD
or EU at some point. I think most commodities are quite likely to
reverse course when dollar corrects.
d) Gold stocks ... have a small position but the 415-430 area has
contained 4 major rallies on the monthly futures chart since 1990. The
current gold rally is extended and smack in middle of strong resistance. I
think 415-430 will eventually become support but not before a good
correction. I've lightened up to core holding.
e) Equities ... closed out my put position around 5 weeks ago when it
became clear that we were not going to get the expected position. The
entries were near perfect and I would have done extremely well had I
traded out near support instead of trying to hold for a major correction.
As it was, I swallow hard and took the only significant loss of 2004. The
50% retracement of the ATH SPX high (1162) and the double tops of early
20002 (1173) are beckoning the market and I think we'll get there. A
correction is in the cards but nothing to indicate it will be major (not
yet anyway) although risks are high. Have some modest longs on technicals
with tight leash. Once 1162-1173 range has been hit, I will go flat all
trading positions and look to add to core holdings in energy. Am looking
for a smack down in China to re-enter some longs there.
That's about it.
Earl
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Howard
Hopkins
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, January 21, 2004
7:34 AM
Subject: [RT] Earl
Earl,I haven't seen any posts from you
recently. What your analysis telling you on the stock
indexes?
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