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That cycles are not stationary is quite evident in this study.
That cycle information IS valuable for anticipating market movement
is in my mind just as obvious from a casual observation of this study.
That certain cycles fade to nothing and that those fades occur when
the market is trending is very valuable to me.
That certain cycles develop significant amplitude and that when
such happens then those cycles tend to follow/predict the market
for some useful period of time is very valuable to me.
This analysis uses a new tool that I am releasing as soon as I can get
it up on the website. Those of you who have followed the "new-gun"
development will recognize that this is basically what new-gun does.
The tool calculates and plots the instantaneous value of a selected
period cycle on the current bar based on an analysis of the phase and
maximum amplitude of that particular cycle over a period of two
cycles back from the current computation. At the end of the data,
using the maximum amplitude and phase of the given cycle, then
indicator continues forward with the cyclic calculation.
One study consists of 8 cycles that were pointed out by the FOURLINE
application which is a conventional Fourier Line Spectra approach
to definition of useful cycles.
The other study consisted of 8 cycles that were pointed out by the
FOURLINE_MEM routine which uses Maximum Entropy Method for
definition of cycles. Look at the bottom of the chart and see which
analysis routine is in use.
This computation is performed on every bar for every cycle that is
defined. The limitation of two cycles for each application is because
Tradestation only allows four plots total for any indicator and since
I want to see the Exponential Moving average of the derived cycles
then we get two cycles and two averages.
My impression is that, insofar as the shorter cycles are concerned, we
are at or near a short-term top. Look and make your own decision.
I hope this will help some to understand something about cycles and
the market.
Clyde
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Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
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