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1) Bearish Thrust Reversal (across red line from previous pivot high) from
the high occurred on 22Sep.
2) Bullish Spring Reversal from the low (across green line from previous
pivot low) occurred on 01Oct (it is rare for a Spring to follow a Thrust
within such a short period of time.
3) On 03Oct, the rally penetrated the Thrust pivot nullifying the Thrust.
4) On 03Oct, the rally also penetrated trendlines drawn from 19Mar02 (heavy
blue) and 17May02 (light blue) pivot highs, then closed off the trendline.
The 19Mar02 trendline was retested today and the close occurred just under
the trendline.
5) NYSE volume was extremely low today (Monday). The last time this occurred
was on 29Aug with price just under a trendline drawn across the prior two
daily pivot highs.
6) Price closed today well above the 78% retracement of the last decline.
Should the SPX move through the two trendlines within the next day or two, I
would expect an explosive rally. It gets tricky here because we are in a
cycle topping window. I have now partially hedged my LEAP put position with
long futures which will come off should this rally fail.
Against this backdrop, the dollar came very close to taking out the recent
lows.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "EarlA" <earl.a@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, September 24, 2003 7:13 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] current market condition
> NYSE daily breadth models continue to deteriorate. Ditto for NASDAQ. I
feel
> fortunate to have been filled on a partial LEAP Put position last Thursday
> and am now wondering if price will make it above the last high as expected
> to scale in more of position. SPX put in a daily Thrust Reversal on Monday
> and this gives good odds that the left pivot high of 1032.41 on 08Sep will
> hold this rally.
>
> Earl
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