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There has been a fight going on to change the pricing of oil and NG as well
as gold to the Euro. What happens if that change is made?
----- Original Message -----
From: "Charles Marchand" <c_r@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, October 06, 2003 6:45 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] The Top Is In
> Ref oil and gas -- an industry analyst recently observed that oil
> projects currently in development world wide will raise production above
> the expected growth in demand over the next few years. As for natural
gas,
> there are large reserves in the Mid-East, North Africa and Southeast Asia
> that are currently "stranded" for lack of access to markets. At $4 to $5
> an MCFG it is economic to liquify this gas and build the tankers and
> terminals to move it to US and European markets. Domestic $1.5--$2 gas
> might be gone, but there is plenty available internationally at higher
> prices. Of course, this will raise the trade deficit.
>
> Oil is priced in dollars. The question is, given the declining
> value of the dollar, will producing nations be content with OPEC's
> $22--$28/BO price target? Also, will non-OPEC nations, particularly
> Russia, voluntarily restrict export to support OPEC pricing. Mexico and
> Norway have done so in the past.
>
> Charles Marchand
>
> At 08:07 AM 10/4/2003 -0600, you wrote:
> >Stick with the plan, whatever it was! If you were bearish (or bullish) on
> >the intermediate term fundamentals of the market, did a couple of weeks
of
> >decline (or rally) change the fundamentals? If not, then assess the
> >technicals. Has the intermediate term technical picture changed radically
> >during the past few weeks? If the fundamentals have not changed
> >significantly and the intermediate term technicals have not changed
> >significantly, then stick with the plan. If one or both have changed
> >significantly, then adjust the plan.
> >
> >I see a market which is fundamentally very over valued, an economy which
is
> >running on whatever air the government can pump into the credit system, a
> >world in which is the US$ is over priced and over extended, and a world
in
> >which oil and gas is in flat to declining production. I see a stock
market
> >in which the intermediate term rally is running out of gas, currency
markets
> >in which the dollar is in an established downtrend, and credit markets
which
> >are in turmoil within an established uptrend.
> >
> >I began scaling into an intermediate term put position on the last rally
and
> >will continue doing so should we get new highs ... I am now confident
that
> >there is far more downside risk than upside opportunity in the stock
market.
> >I have been holding intermediate term positions in Yen or Euro for some
> >months and will be adding to positions on the current dollar bounce. I
have
> >muni bond positions which are yielding close to 7% tax free and have no
> >plans to cash them in. I have gas and oil trusts which are yielding close
to
> >12%, with large capital gains to boot, and have not plans to sell until
we
> >are well into winter. I also have sizeable cash positions for shopping
when
> >opportunities arise. The point is, if one has a sound plan, one sticks
with
> >it.
> >
> >Earl
> >
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
> >To: <Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >Sent: Friday, October 03, 2003 11:24 AM
> >Subject: [RT] The Top Is In
> >
> >
> > >
> > > And just when some of you folks had me convinced...KABOOM! Now what to
do
> > > with all that cash and nothing I like to short. Ideas?
> > >
> > > On the real reason for this post...I now think the top is not in if
the
> > > close is above previous high close.
> > >
> > > Sincerely,
> > >
> > > John
> >
> >
> >
> >To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> >realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> >Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
>
>
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>
>
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