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Yesterday I noted that all three major stock
indexes were in a TEN buy condition indicating an up movement likely for Monday.
Today I will expand the analysis to put this in perspective.
All three indexes (DJIA, S&P500 and Nasdaq)
share common structural characteristics and Near Impulse dates so I will
summarize for all three.
On a monthly basis all three appear to be
completing part of a bearish Elliott Wave structure from the March 2000 top. The
S&P and NAZ appear to be completing a Wave 4 up move of 6-7 months. The DJIA
is more ragged and could be in a Wave 4 or a C move. All three are within the
monthly Near Impulse reversal forecast window and giving sell signals. The next
NI forecast date is November, 2003
So, in summary, on a monthly basis all indexes
are in an up trend within a larger bear market decline but signaling a monthly
reversal. A monthly reversal should carry the DOW to the 73-7400 level, and the
S&P to the 800 level.
On a weekly basis all three indexes reversed their
5-6 week up trend and confirmed the high weekly pivot. The next weekly Near
Impulse forecast is for the week of 10/24/03 so I expect downward movement into
this time frame.
On a daily basis, yesterdays post indicated that
all indexes were in a buy condition, sharing a Near Impulse forecast date of
9/26. Three things can happen at these dates, depending on new impulses hitting
the markets. In most cases, with positive information to work on, the
markets will reverse. That is the most probable outcome. If new information hits
the markets supporting the current (down) trend condition. the markets will
accelerate in that direction. If no new impulses hit the markets, a sideways
movement could result.
The indexes also share forecast dates of 10/1 and
10/3 so my interpretation is that we get a short upward reversal into mid-week
with another high pivot and downward reversal carrying to new weekly
lows.
In PivotTrading, we do not enter positions until
some confirmation of the pivot is exhibited. Trading above Friday's highs will
be the first indication.
Hope this helps in understanding the
analysis.
Jim WhitePivotTrader.comHome of the Near
Impulse Forecaster
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Jim
White
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; <A
title=gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, September 27, 2003 12:02
PM
Subject: [RT] Monday
I have a TEN buy condition for all major indexes for
Monday.Ten buys occurwhen we have a Near Impulse forecast combined with
the market at the bottomof a channel and a %R buy signal. There is a high
probability of an up weekwith another reversal on Thursday or
Friday.Jim WhitePivotTrader.comHome of the Near Impulse
ForecasterTo
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