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I think I have answered all of your questions and you are entitled to
disagree.
As far as Merriman, what you linked is not what I referred to. I did a
careful analalyzation of all his signals and he averaged 2% per year
higher per year than the funds I used to compare. It was a lot of work to
pluck the data and correlate. Check it out if you like. At this point this
is much ado about a passing phase.
That link may refer to his management of client money using certain
funds...and for some reason he does not do that very well. I would not
even hazard a guess. It does not corelate his signals. Involvement often
makes managers perform differently and emotionally.
Sincerely,
John
What I do know is I went 100% long in mid March and he signalled 100 %
long in April.
> --- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, <jvc689@xxxx> wrote:
>> Dear Tradewynne,
>>
>> # 3. Yes, but would you not be looking for a decline before calling
> a turn?
>
>>>50 day EMA
>
> No: MA crossover systems lose money. OTOH, Yes <g>, but it's all a
> question of scale. I have hourly, even daily systems with trend
> filters that are short.
>
>> # 5. We have had other days on this upswing when the advancers to
>> decliners have been negative. One day is no big deal especially
> when it came on the heels of OPEC oil price rigging.
>
> What does this have to do with:
>
>> >> 5. 43 CANSLIM Breakouts ain't hay on such a day.
>> >
>> > Are you saying "43 CANSLIM Breakouts" out of 3000++ stocks
>> > is bullish?
>
>> Paul Merriman
>
> OK, look at his performance (in stocks) since the bear started:
>
> http://www.merrimanfunds.com/performance.html
>
>>
>> Would not wait for 13% to get bearish...actually I would wait until
> I see employment improve to a lower level than it is now...have not
> calculated it yet.
>>
>> Not impossible the top is in...but how can one call it on the basis
> of a
>> TA mechanism that changes almost weekly I do not know. A few weeks
> ago, it
>> was posted " I would not short this market" I just think the "top
> is in"
>> posts are reactive.
>>
>> And sure, I have no crystal ball...but I do believe the odds point
> higher
>> for now. If it goes lower, I am prepared.
>>
>> As a contrarian, it is my opinion that this board has been wrong
> more than
>> right on market turns. Plus Paul Merriman who does a decent job in
> timing
>> Mutual Funds for many years is still 100% long with none of his 4
> timers
>> turning negative.
>>
>> Sincerely,
>>
>> John
>>
>> >> 3. All of the sectors are well above their 50 day EMA.
>> >
>> > By definition, aren't most stocks "well above their 50 day EMA" at
>> tops? Well below at bottoms?
>> >
>> >> 5. 43 CANSLIM Breakouts ain't hay on such a day.
>> >
>> > Are you saying "43 CANSLIM Breakouts" out of 3000++ stocks
>> > is bullish?
>> >
>> >> unemployment at one time in the not too distant past was 13%.
>> >
>> > so, would you wait for 13% to get bearish?
>> >
>> >> curious to see a ***possible*** top post so close to a market
> drop.
>> >
>> > I assume you think it's IMpossible that a top is in?
>> >
>> >
>> > --- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, <jvc689@xxxx> wrote:
>> >> Dear Nav,
>> >>
>> >> And here I thought it would go un-noticed. The way I see Mr.
> Market
>> > is:
>> >>
>> >> 1. Market internals are not judged on one days action. Even today
>> > of the
>> >> 13 sectors most watched, 5 were in the green and 7 in the red. I
>> > just find
>> >> it curious to see a possible top post so close to a market drop.
>> >>
>> >> 2. The sectors 5 days ago were 12 in the green and just 1 in the
>> > red.
>> >>
>> >> 3. All of the sectors are well above their 50 day EMA.
>> >>
>> >> 4. I have not met any Hurst Made Millionaires yet...facetious
>> > though it
>> >> may be. Every prediction I have seen is always "possible"
>> > or "could do
>> >> this" or could do that". Please do not take offense. I let you
> who
>> > believe
>> >> have your say.
>> >>
>> >> 5. 43 CANSLIM Breakouts ain't hay on such a day.
>> >>
>> >> 6. Take a look at the Dow stocks that led the move down...due
> for a
>> >> correction in my opinion.
>> >>
>> >> 7. Second term of first year President has seen an average 32%
>> > gain. We
>> >> are not there yet...and the economic impetus have not been felt
> yet.
>> >>
>> >> 8. Unemployment has not started its eventual decline yet. When it
>> > does the
>> >> market will peak further and choke up later. If you recall,
>> > unemployment
>> >> at one time in the not too distant past was 13%.
>> >>
>> >> 9. Government deficit is but a fraction of what it has been
>> > relative to
>> >> past GDP per cents.
>> >>
>> >> 10. The penny stocks and the public craziness has not even
> started.
>> >>
>> >> 11. People are still afraid to call this move that started around
>> > March as
>> >> a Bull move...preferring to call it a Bear Trap.
>> >>
>> >> 12. I could give mucho added reasons, but what the heck I am
> tired
>> > and Ben
>> >> said it best. Wait until October.
>> >>
>> >> Bottom line is I am techno-fundamental and when the fundamentals
> do
>> > not
>> >> jive with the technicals or vice versa, I am not a believer. I
> said
>> > we
>> >> would "rock after Iraq" and when its time to stop, I don't think
> I
>> > will
>> >> need a chart alone to tell me.
>> >>
>> >> But keep in mind, I am hedged with over 50% in cash...so when I
> see
>> > a
>> >> stock like WM at a bargain, I can pick it up. There are a lot
> more
>> > on my
>> >> watch list.
>> >>
>> >> Sincerely,
>> >>
>> >> John
>> >>
>> >> > John,
>> >> > Can't let a post like that go unnoticed! What are the
>> > possibilities you
>> >> > see "Mr. Market" making and why?
>> >> > Navtej
>> >> >
>> >> > ----- Original Message -----
>> >> > From: <jvc689@xxxx>
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >> Dear Rhonda,
>> >> >>
>> >> >> I too enjoyed your post and chart. Also the use of "possible
>> > high for
>> >> >> the year" makes it a pretty safe call.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> On that basis, I think the possible high for the year may not
>> > have yet
>> >> >> been seen. We will let Mr. Market tell us.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> I would not be selling short just yet.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Sincerely,
>> >> >>
>> >> >> John
>> >> >>
>> >> >> > Great work, much appreciated.
>> >> >> > n
>> >> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
>> >> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
>> >> > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
>> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
>> > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
>
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