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> No: MA crossover systems lose money. OTOH, Yes <g>, but it's all a
> question of scale. I have hourly, even daily systems with trend
> filters that are short.
FWIW, speaking of time scales, 15 minute breadth based trend filtered
systems I use have been short, then long, then short again, and are
now flat. All since 9-19....of course shorter time frames have flipped
around even more.
> > # 5. We have had other days on this upswing when the advancers to
> > decliners have been negative. One day is no big deal...
I didn't read anyone saying that one day flips on the A-D make or
break the market, and I agree the A-D line has NOT confirmed a top,
but there are bearish breadth divergences based on weeks and even
months of A-D data. That said, divergences (A-D or otherwise) get
blown away all the time: they are valuable as a heads up, not as a
stand alone method.
--- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx>
wrote:
> --- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, <jvc689@xxxx> wrote:
> > Dear Tradewynne,
> >
> > # 3. Yes, but would you not be looking for a decline before
calling
> a turn?
>
> >>50 day EMA
>
> No: MA crossover systems lose money. OTOH, Yes <g>, but it's all a
> question of scale. I have hourly, even daily systems with trend
> filters that are short.
>
> > # 5. We have had other days on this upswing when the advancers to
> > decliners have been negative. One day is no big deal especially
> when it came on the heels of OPEC oil price rigging.
>
> What does this have to do with:
>
> > >> 5. 43 CANSLIM Breakouts ain't hay on such a day.
> > >
> > > Are you saying "43 CANSLIM Breakouts" out of 3000++ stocks
> > > is bullish?
>
> > Paul Merriman
>
> OK, look at his performance (in stocks) since the bear started:
>
> http://www.merrimanfunds.com/performance.html
>
> >
> > Would not wait for 13% to get bearish...actually I would wait
until
> I see employment improve to a lower level than it is now...have not
> calculated it yet.
> >
> > Not impossible the top is in...but how can one call it on the
basis
> of a
> > TA mechanism that changes almost weekly I do not know. A few
weeks
> ago, it
> > was posted " I would not short this market" I just think the "top
> is in"
> > posts are reactive.
> >
> > And sure, I have no crystal ball...but I do believe the odds
point
> higher
> > for now. If it goes lower, I am prepared.
> >
> > As a contrarian, it is my opinion that this board has been wrong
> more than
> > right on market turns. Plus Paul Merriman who does a decent job
in
> timing
> > Mutual Funds for many years is still 100% long with none of his 4
> timers
> > turning negative.
> >
> > Sincerely,
> >
> > John
> >
> > >> 3. All of the sectors are well above their 50 day EMA.
> > >
> > > By definition, aren't most stocks "well above their 50 day EMA"
at
> > > tops? Well below at bottoms?
> > >
> > >> 5. 43 CANSLIM Breakouts ain't hay on such a day.
> > >
> > > Are you saying "43 CANSLIM Breakouts" out of 3000++ stocks
> > > is bullish?
> > >
> > >> unemployment at one time in the not too distant past was 13%.
> > >
> > > so, would you wait for 13% to get bearish?
> > >
> > >> curious to see a ***possible*** top post so close to a market
> drop.
> > >
> > > I assume you think it's IMpossible that a top is in?
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, <jvc689@xxxx> wrote:
> > >> Dear Nav,
> > >>
> > >> And here I thought it would go un-noticed. The way I see Mr.
> Market
> > > is:
> > >>
> > >> 1. Market internals are not judged on one days action. Even
today
> > > of the
> > >> 13 sectors most watched, 5 were in the green and 7 in the red.
I
> > > just find
> > >> it curious to see a possible top post so close to a market
drop.
> > >>
> > >> 2. The sectors 5 days ago were 12 in the green and just 1 in
the
> > > red.
> > >>
> > >> 3. All of the sectors are well above their 50 day EMA.
> > >>
> > >> 4. I have not met any Hurst Made Millionaires yet...facetious
> > > though it
> > >> may be. Every prediction I have seen is always "possible"
> > > or "could do
> > >> this" or could do that". Please do not take offense. I let you
> who
> > > believe
> > >> have your say.
> > >>
> > >> 5. 43 CANSLIM Breakouts ain't hay on such a day.
> > >>
> > >> 6. Take a look at the Dow stocks that led the move down...due
> for a
> > >> correction in my opinion.
> > >>
> > >> 7. Second term of first year President has seen an average 32%
> > > gain. We
> > >> are not there yet...and the economic impetus have not been
felt
> yet.
> > >>
> > >> 8. Unemployment has not started its eventual decline yet. When
it
> > > does the
> > >> market will peak further and choke up later. If you recall,
> > > unemployment
> > >> at one time in the not too distant past was 13%.
> > >>
> > >> 9. Government deficit is but a fraction of what it has been
> > > relative to
> > >> past GDP per cents.
> > >>
> > >> 10. The penny stocks and the public craziness has not even
> started.
> > >>
> > >> 11. People are still afraid to call this move that started
around
> > > March as
> > >> a Bull move...preferring to call it a Bear Trap.
> > >>
> > >> 12. I could give mucho added reasons, but what the heck I am
> tired
> > > and Ben
> > >> said it best. Wait until October.
> > >>
> > >> Bottom line is I am techno-fundamental and when the
fundamentals
> do
> > > not
> > >> jive with the technicals or vice versa, I am not a believer. I
> said
> > > we
> > >> would "rock after Iraq" and when its time to stop, I don't
think
> I
> > > will
> > >> need a chart alone to tell me.
> > >>
> > >> But keep in mind, I am hedged with over 50% in cash...so when
I
> see
> > > a
> > >> stock like WM at a bargain, I can pick it up. There are a lot
> more
> > > on my
> > >> watch list.
> > >>
> > >> Sincerely,
> > >>
> > >> John
> > >>
> > >> > John,
> > >> > Can't let a post like that go unnoticed! What are the
> > > possibilities you
> > >> > see "Mr. Market" making and why?
> > >> > Navtej
> > >> >
> > >> > ----- Original Message -----
> > >> > From: <jvc689@xxxx>
> > >> >
> > >> >
> > >> >> Dear Rhonda,
> > >> >>
> > >> >> I too enjoyed your post and chart. Also the use of "possible
> > > high for
> > >> >> the year" makes it a pretty safe call.
> > >> >>
> > >> >> On that basis, I think the possible high for the year may
not
> > > have yet
> > >> >> been seen. We will let Mr. Market tell us.
> > >> >>
> > >> >> I would not be selling short just yet.
> > >> >>
> > >> >> Sincerely,
> > >> >>
> > >> >> John
> > >> >>
> > >> >> > Great work, much appreciated.
> > >> >> > n
> > >> >> >
> > >> >
> > >> >
> > >> >
> > >> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > >> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >> >
> > >> >
> > >> >
> > >> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > >> > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
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