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[RT] Mechanical Trading



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Dear JS,

Since I posted the Element question, I  feel obliged to comment. 
Unfortunately, I am out of town and my laptop is giving me fits so I 
can not open Jim's file.

The question was not whether anyone has something better, it was 
whether anyone can find a flaw. As I said I am calling the people who 
trade it to get answers. I am sure others may have something better 
but that old "prprietary" issue comes up...and I even question some 
of them since no real time data is presented.

As far as Jim's goes, not being able to see it now, just what makes 
it better than a system that allegdly had only 2 losing months of 30 
and has made 200% + with miniscule drawdowns and really may not need 
$20,000 to run, if the data are correct in real time. It could 
possibly need less to run given the data presented.

I will know more about Jim's system when I return from the Beach 
later this week. I should know about Element after a few calls.

But in short, at  this time I am not impressed with either Jim's or 
Element unless I know they walk forward and produce. I am not saying 
Jim did this, but anyone can optimize a system that looks great.

1. To the point, where do you see a flaw in Element?

2. Is Jim trading his system and is it walking forward however you 
say it is better than Element?

3. Are you trading it? If not why not?

4. If it is better than Element and walks forward, there are a lot of 
people I know who would like to make your friend Jim richer by 
leasing it.

What I am posting is meant constructively and I hope it is taken that 
way. As far as I am concerned with Mechanical Systems, they need to 
be able to literally walk through fire for me to plunk money on them.

Respectfully submitted,

John





------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: "JSGallagher" <JSGallagher@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: RE: [RT] Mechanical Trading
Date: 09/21/2003 03:55pm


I am usually a stealth reader/non-responder to this forum but after
reviewing the results of the "Element" I had to throw in my two cents
worth.

I have a friend, a bad trader but great system writer, who has 
written a
strategy to trade the emini.  I attached the results to this email.
Actually, the results I attached are not as good as his system 
because I
cut down the initial capital (he uses 50 thousand, Element uses 20
thousand) to make it more comparable with "Element".  It is backtested
starting 08/11/02 and I can't go any further back because it uses tic
data and that's as far back as my "ES.tik" file goes.  I am also 
missing
about five days worth of tick data at the end of May and it skewed the
performance to the downside.

In short, I am not impressed the "Elements" results.

Regards,

John

-----Original Message-----
From: jvc689@xxxxxxx [mailto:jvc689@xxxxxxx] 
Sent: Friday, September 19, 2003 10:14 PM
To: Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Cc: Trading_Systems@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] Mechanical Trading


Most commercial ones have not been so great this year except for a
couple
of CTA Futures Funds who have their own proprietary ones.

I like to use some leisure time to search and destroy a lot of the 
trash
out there preying on those who are looking for the Holy Grail [like I
still do]. But here is one I can not find a flaw...yet. There is a 
site:

http://www.capitalberkeley.com

They have five systems on the site for the S&P. I can trash four of 
them
but the one called Element, seems to good to be true. And we all know
the
old adage, if it's too good to be true yada yada yada.

Please tell me what I am missing. I think these guys are CTA's if that
makes any difference.

Sincerely,

John




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