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Hi Dr. John,
See below
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
jvc689@xxxxxxx
To: <A title=Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2003 2:16
PM
Subject: [RT] Caveat emptor
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face=Arial size=2><FONT face=Arial
size=2><FONT face=Arial
size=2>
This is
a brief synopsis of due diligence Recently experienced. I saw apost about
someone who claimed a 100% plus profit for 2002. I knew frompast
experience that this person offered a service so I inquired
further.What I found out was:1. Yes the 100% plus for 2002
could be validated. However I found it odd that the purveyor of the
service only used $20,000. Odd because theperson claims to have made
substantial sums trading commodities.
NW: Yep, that was me. The point is not how
much money I use for my model real money account, but what kind of returns can
be generated. Obviously, one could trade with
more money and multiply their positions and returns proportionately. I
use circa $20-25,000 because that is
about what most people are willing to do.
If I tell people I have a million dollar account, not many people will be
interested, because they will think they need a large sum of money. I am
trying to prove that good returns can be had using a moderate sized but well
capitalized account. By the way, the result for 2002 was +129% from 74%
winning trades and an astounding 5.98 to 1 win to loss ratio.
In contrast, most advisors
show hypothetical accounts and returns and then
get good results by curve fitting after the fact. If you like, I can
create a hypothetical billion dollar account. I prefer to show real
results with real money that is the realm of possibility for the average
futures account. 2. There was also a claim to have made 294%
from 1994 to 2002. At firstblush that sounds terrific as an average of
roughly 36% per year. At thesame time there must have been some lean years
considering the 2002 year.
NW: Yes, there were some year like 2002 with huge
gains and other years that were near break even. Money in the markets
tends to ebb and flow in a cyclic manner. Make hay while the Sun shines and
keep losses to a minimum in the bad years. Much of the 1994 to 2002
track record was independently verified and monitored by CTCR, where I
was compared to 25 of the top names in the futures <FONT face=Arial
size=2>trading advisory business. Unfortunately, CTCR ceased publishing circa
2000 and it was not clear whether they were going to resume or fold their tent
for over a year. As of 2002, I began keeping
my own detailed track record. 3.
When the issue of why no greater investment than $20,000 came up anddid
that mean there were other places his money was placed, I wasridiculed for
asking questions which I thought I had every right to ask.
NW: I answered you concerning the amount
of money in the account question when you previously asked it and
above. Asking for a full accounting of all of my finances is not
appropriate. Needless to say, I abandoned ship and the
added pettiness that was brought up by the vendor.
NW: John, you killed the goose that lays
the golden egg. Maybe you can call
Warren Buffet and ask him what he has done with
all of his money? So be careful out there.
NW: Your telling me! I sent you a bunch of free
goodies, of which you insisted I send hard copies at some expense to me,
including free forecast for the rest of the
year. You didn't read the material, asked a bunch of inappropriate
personal questions, and then you had a hissy fit. The people who
complain the most are the ones who don't do their homewok.
<FONT face=Arial
size=2><FONT face=Arial
size=2>For the sake of confidence, I will not identify the
person.
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NW: Why so secret? You hiding something? Oh
well, if you insist, we'll just keep it among a few friends on RT. Would you
like to post a full accounting of all of your personal finances? That is
what you insisted I do. <FONT face=Arial
size=2>
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Regards,
Norman
<FONT
face=Arial
size=2>Sincerely,JohnTo
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