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Dan,
Per the history of Venice, the folks who
brought banking, world trade, and the famous Venetian glass to Venice were
imported. When the Venetians thought they could do it themselves, <FONT
face=Arial size=2>they kicked these people out and then came the collapse.
This story was infinetly repeated all over Europe
for about 1,000 years.
Regards,
Norman
<BLOCKQUOTE
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Dan
Goncharoff
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, July 23, 2003 11:19
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] book recomendation
sought -- globalization
I can't agree with the characterization of 30+ years of
substantially decreased trade and capital flows as 'one step back'. We're
talking about two generations. If the US had retreated to its normal policy of
isolationism after WWII, we would not be where we are today.If you
want another example, look at Venice, which invented banking (as well as
double-entry bookkeeping) because of the needs of its global trading, but
eventually 'collapsed'.I am not predicting 'collapse'. I am just
pointing out that in the past it has come repeatedly and quickly, and I am not
convinced that human beings or nations have changed all that much...For
example, what if the US decided that the ease of global trade and capital
flows was the greatest threat to the security of the country? What would that
do?RegardsDanGEarlA wrote:
Global trade continues to be evolutionary which is not to say that it has
not had many instances of 2 steps forward and 1 step back. Note that the
"collapse" of global trade following WWI has been followed by far more
globalization. The "collapse" was not really a collapse, it was a step back
to increased tariffs to protect domestic producers during the global
depression ... I expect we will see a repeat within the next decade.
However, there will be no "collapse" and globalization will continue. There
will be no collapse because each step forwards creates capital flows and
interdependencies which can not easily be reversed, even by determined
governments.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Dan Goncharoff" <TheGonch@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, July 23, 2003 8:05 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] book recomendation sought
An historical note: the Brits, the drivers of economic globalization in
the second half of the 19th century, were saying the same thing until
disabused of the notion by the collapse of global trade after WWI.
Regards
DanG
EarlA wrote:
There are two types of approaches out there ... radical (which won't
work)
and evolutionary. The fringe stuff is filled with a lot of idealism
without
much practicality ... like it or not, we are not going to return to the
"good old days" i.e. swap the global conglomerates for mom and pop
operations. You might find this piece (PDF) by Stephan Roach of value:
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/x2.pdf
Roach is the straight shooter, Chief Global Economist, for Morgan
Stanley.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Terry B. Rhodes" <trhodes3@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, July 23, 2003 12:37 AM
Subject: [RT] book recomendation sought
Hi All,
Can anyone recommend a book that puts forward the
anti-globalization protesters case, preferably something
with an economic bent? I know nothing about these guys.
TIA
regards,
tbr
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