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--- In gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "topos8" <topos8@xxxx> wrote:
In my last post, GG #2207 on July 8, I said that my square of 9
calculations showed strong support in the bond futures at 114. Today
the market has dropped as low as 113-05 and is now trading 113-17. My
best guess is that we have seen today's low and that the odds now
favor a rally into the 117-118 range. My calculations still say that
this would be a rally in a bear market and should be followed by a
move down into the 105-107 range.
Right now it appears to me that the S&P is about to break out above
the 1015 high of its trading range of the past five weeks. There is
pretty strong resistance in the 1040-1060 range, but my best guess is
that any reaction that begins from that range will be no more than 50
S&P points. It still looks likely that the S&P will rally into the
1130-1180 range by the end of the year. If I am wrong in my
expectation of an imminent upside breakout my calculations show very
strong support in the 960-970 range and the breakout move would
follow a drop to that suppport.
Since the March lows in the S&P the bond and stock market have
started to move up and down together when their action over time
frames of 4-6 weeks is compared. This is a big change from their
negative correlation during the 2000- early 2003 period. A four point
rally in bonds now coupled with a stock market rally would be
consistent with the positive correlation between these markets we
have seen since March of this year.
Carl
--- End forwarded message ---
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