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German unemployment is, by some measures, as high as 11.3%, although a
lot of that is due to the absorption of the former East Germany, where
unemployment is about double that in the former West Germany.
The PE on the DAX is down to about 10.
You are wrong about a constitutional balanced budget amendment. There
is a stability pact among the nations participating in the euro that
restricts their budget deficit to 3% of GNP, under penalty of fines.
Both France and Germany are exceeding that restriction in an effort to
boost their economies. The current German budget deficit is €15 billion.
Longer term interest rates in Euroland have been lower than those in
the US for most of the past seven years, and are at recent historical
lows. You are correct that the ECB has been less aggressive than the
Fed in lowering short term rates, although they have been reducing
interest rates for two years.
<http://www.globinvestor.com/bonds.htm#Bonds>
Euro
Kent Rollins wrote:
What is the unemployment rate in
Germany and what is the PE on the DAX? Germany and France are
socialist contries. Their governments are way ahead of us in that
respect. I heard France is considering going from a 35-hour work week
to a 30-hour work week to boost employment. Any Frenchies on this
list feel free to correct me. Germany has a constitutional balanced
budget requirement so they can't engage in deficit spending to boost
their economy despite the high taxes the citizens pay. And Deutsche
on the list feel free to correct me on that one. The ECB has only
just begun to cut interest rates after being forced to by the strong
Euro. And lets remember, the mandate of the ECB is not "sustainable
growth" as it is here. The ECB's mandate is "low inflation",
specifically 0% to 2%.
Kent Rollins
<div
>-----
Original Message -----
<div
>From: <a
title="TheGonch@xxxxxxxxxxx" href="">Dan
Goncharoff
To: <a title="realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, May 26, 2003 5:08 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Currencies
Actually, continental Europe looks a lot closer to a bottom than the
US. No one sees things getting any better anytime soon, which I take as
a good sign. Even the banks in Germany are starting to fire people,
something that has never happened before.
Looking long term, I see a lot more upside in markets like Germany
than in the US.
Regards
DanG
Kent Rollins wrote:
How about a strong economy. Where
else are you going to put your money? Europe? Japan? The Middle
East? Africa?
As for Soros, he has probably
already closed his position. He wouldn't have announced it
otherwise.
Kent Rollins
<div
>-----
Original Message -----
<div
>From: <a
title="mar.ko@xxxxxxxxxxx" href="">Mark Simms
To: <a title="realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, May 23, 2003 11:09 PM
Subject: RE: [RT] Currencies
Let's
hope SOROS gets his ass burnt here with a huge "C"-wave like rally
in the dollar...
only
question: what will spark it ?
Capture
of Osama Bin Laden ? Fed Announcement ? What ?
<blockquote
>
<font
face="Tahoma" size="2">-----Original Message-----
From: Ira [<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="">mailto:mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Friday, May 23, 2003 11:46 AM
To: real traders
Subject: [RT] Currencies
I have a target for the dollar
index of 92.84 +/- and we are about there. Could this be the end
of the current dollar slump as the Euro is also flirting with
current target prices. Ira.
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