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Bush may (or may not) be smart politically, but there is clearly a
difference between his foreign policy team, which incorporates a
diversity of views, and his economic team, where very member of the
original team has quit or been pushed out. Bush seems to be lacking the
economic policy equivalent of Rice, someone who defines a longer-term
consistent message. Until he gets one, I will not trust Bush's policy
to be well thought-out.
That to me is the biggest reason to be worried about the future of the
US economy -- a president (or administration) that doesn't understand
what it is doing can cause a lot of damage.
Regards
DanG
Kent Rollins wrote:
>The
current economic condition is SYSTEMIC....and thus resistant to "Quick
fixes".
Three years of a down economy
is not "quick". And "resistant" is not impermeable.
>Bush
fired Laurel and Hardy (O'Neill and Lindsay) because they told him
you can't cut taxes, wage expensive war, and continue sponsoring a
huge, costly bureaucracy in Washington....it's economic suicide in the
long run.
>That's
why he fired them....but THEY were right.
If O'Neill and Lindsay were in
your opinion right, then why do you refer to them as Laurel and
Hardy. This is part of your problem, MASSIVE Mark. You are overly
critical of everything. We're either going to have MASSIVE inflation
or MASSIVE deflation. You don't care which as long as it is MASSIVE
and destructive.
>These
deficit projections are just the tip-of-the-iceberg.......and
incredibly, there is still no talk of government cut-backs in spending
programs and transfer payments.....just incredible !
Bush is smart politically.
There was a study done in the late 80's that said for every new dollar
of tax money brought to the government by economic growth, Washington
spent $1.30 (or some figure like that). That was the 80's. I doubt
things have changed. Bush is choking of Washington's money supply.
That's the only way to get them to reduce spending. It's the only way
PERIOD. You seem to think that these bigger deficits are a problem.
Recently, there was a book published that studied the effects of large
national debts on countries. England in the 1800's had a national
debt that was 300% of GDP. THAT'S MASSIVE, MARK. A number even you
would appreciate. They built up that debt thru wars and empire
building. But it wasn't a problem for England. They paid it off and
now they are just fine.
The only way to make Tiny
Daschle say "Well, I guess we don't have money for new
social-dependency (aka vote-buying) programs." is to put him in a
deficit position. What are the Dumocrats really complaining about
today? Listen carefully. They are complaining that they can't enact
a drug benenfits program (aka social dependency program, aka
vote-buying program). They are complaining that they can't make
healthcare free for everyone. They don't want to pay down the debt.
They want to take our money from us and use it to make us dependent on
a social welfare State. Despite the fact that we know socialism and
welfare failed...MASSIVELY.
The only way...THE ONLY
WAY...to cut Washington's spending habit is to take away their money.
And THAT is exactly what Nucular George is doing.
Do you see anything in the
world today that is going right, MASSIVE Mark? Anything positive?
Kent Rollins
<div
>-----
Original Message -----
<div
>From: <a
title="mar.ko@xxxxxxxxxxx" href="">Mark Simms
To: <a title="realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, May 25, 2003 12:55 AM
Subject: RE: Re[3]: [RT] spx daily
I'm
not thinking MASSIVE here, only LONG-TERM.
Part
of my bearishness comes from the current high PE Ratios for
one....there just seems to be so much ANTICIPATION for a big recovery
here...
I
don't see it, quite frankly.
Bush
fired Laurel and Hardy (O'Neill and Lindsay) because they told him
you can't cut taxes, wage expensive war, and continue sponsoring a
huge, costly bureaucracy in Washington....it's economic suicide in the
long run.
Bush
did not want to hear this....moreover, h<span
class="930204604-25052003">e's
"dumb"...economically.
That's
why he fired them....but THEY were right.
These
deficit projections are just the tip-of-the-iceberg.......and
incredibly, there is still no talk of government cut-backs in spending
programs and transfer payments.....just incredible !
Unfortunately,
Bush may be out of office before this is proven correct.....
<blockquote
>
<font
face="Tahoma" size="2">-----Original Message-----
From: Kent Rollins [mailto:kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Friday, May 23, 2003 8:16 AM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: Re[3]: [RT] spx daily
How can YOU ignore everything
besides the tech sector? If everything but the tech sector has
turned the corner on the economy, that sounds like a good thing to
me.
With respect to the "derivatives
bubble", prove to me that there is one. This is the first I've
heard about it. Lately, Warren Buffet has been saying a lot of
stuff with which I don't agree.
FYI, consumers have been repairing
their balance sheets as well. Sorry I can't remember the numbers on
that one either. It's not as dramatic as the improvements on the
corporate side, but it was an improvement.
So you're joining Simms on
predicting MASSIVE Great Depression II.
Kent Rollins
<div
>-----
Original Message -----
<div
>From: <a
title="bradcline@xxxxxxxxx" href="">Brad
Cline
To: <a title="realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, May 23, 2003 2:08 AM
Subject: RE: Re[3]: [RT] spx daily
<font face="Arial"
color="#0000ff" size="2">How can you ignore the tech sector? That's
like pro forma accounting. If I didn't have to make my house
payment everything is rosy. The markets have seen their lows only if
the derivitivies bubble doesn't burst, or consumer debt doesn't come
home to roost. Warren Buffet has said that derivities are a "time
bomb" waiting to happen. Maybe the fed will be able to balance
everything out over time but I wouldn't bet on it.
<blockquote
>
<font face="Times New Roman"
size="2">-----Original Message-----
From: Kent Rollins [mailto:kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 8:12 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: Re[3]: [RT] spx daily
Corporations have been doing
balance sheet repair for 2 years now. AT&T alone has
eliminate over $50 BILLION in debt. I saw on the tube last week
someone who had a stunning statistic on what the S&P profits
are if you ignore the tech sector. Wish I could remember what
that statistic was. And the tech sector will fall in line soon
enough. You are stuck in a rut. The markets have seen their
lows. Shake it off.
Kent Rollins
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