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Alex,
The COT have a net long position in the S&P
(big contract) They
had been net short for several years until
shortly after the March lows when their bias moved
to a net long position. They
covered shorts going into those lows. Small
traders
are net short.
Because of this, I believe that sentiment
polls could
be less reliable.
VXN broke last years low and the VIX could possibly
do so also at some point this
year.
Money is pouring into Rydex Ursa Funds.
Reference and credit to chart is on lower
left corner as this isn't my chart.
I do tend to think price will break this weeks lows
next week.. as we broke the weekly pattern
of higher highs and higher lows this week.
(unless we break those highs today which is
lower odds). Looking for higher support to
hold in the next week or so
however and price to continue the
intermediate upward trend.
This is just my humble opinion<FONT
face=Arial size=2>; I may be wrong but that's my take. Last quarter's high
at 935.05 and we're
closer to there than last quarter's low. (for now
anyway)
Best,
Rhonda
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Alex Bell
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">BobsKC
Sent: Friday, May 23, 2003 4:14 AM
Subject: Re[4]: [RT] spx daily
Hello Bob,Sentiment is what
people think/feel about market. And most of thembullish.
As for what they are doing, I can't see how majority can
beshort - there always two side of the market. Do you mean
majority ofinstitutions?Best
regards,Alex
<A
href="">mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxxFriday,
May 23, 2003, 5:06:42 AM, you wrote:B> Again, what is the bullish
sentiment? What people tell pollsters or what B> they actually
do? If you go by what they are doing, and if you believe in B>
contrarian principals, (which you obviously do), then you would be
long.B> BobB> At 03:18 AM 5/23/2003 +0400, you
wrote:>>Hello BobsKC,>>>>I am short. To me
highest bullish sentiment is a sign of near top.>>>>Best
regards,>>
Alex
mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx>>>>>>Friday, May 23,
2003, 3:01:13 AM, you wrote:>>>>B> Bullish sentiment
may be high but in fact, shorting is robust and getting>>B>
stronger. So do we go by what people say or what they
do?>>>>B>
Bob>>>>>>>>B> At 02:52 AM 5/23/2003
+0400, you wrote:>> >>Hello Mark,>>
>>>> >>%Bearish today is lowest since 1991:>>
>>>> >><A
href="">http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/inv_intel.asp>>
>>>> >>". High readings suggest excessive optimism,
which typically occurs>> >>when buying strength has been
tapped out, and low readings represent>> >>depleted selling
strength, and tend to precede market rallies. We>> >>normally
view a bullish percentage higher than 55 combined with a>>
>>bearish reading lower 30% as bearish for the market.">>
>>>> >>>> >>Best regards,>>
>>
Alex
mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx>> >>>> >>>>
>>Thursday, May 22, 2003, 9:36:17 PM, you wrote:>>
>>>> >>MS> You meant "higher high", right
?>> >>MS> Don't underestimate the bulls....they are wildly
optimistic right>> >>MS> now.....and holding this market
up.>> >>MS> Bull-Bear survey ratio now at the highest point
in years....>> >>MS> -----Original
Message----->> >>MS> From: none
[mailto:profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]>> >>MS> Sent:
Wednesday, May 21, 2003 10:40 PM>> >>MS> To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> >>MS> Subject:
Re: [RT] spx daily>> >>>> >>>>
>>MS> Hello>> >>>>
>>MS> I am with you that there is a high
probability that we make a>> >>lower high>>
>>MS> tomorrow or Fri. and then collapse>>
>>MS> Ben>>
>>MS> ----- Original Message
----->> >>MS> From: Rhonda
Guilbeaux>> >>MS> To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> >>MS>
Sent: Wednesday, May 21, 2003 7:37 PM>>
>>MS> Subject: [RT] spx daily>>
>>>> >>>>
>>MS> Last quarter's candle waist
882.>> >>MS> right at the 200 dma
area.>> >>>> >>MS>
Higher support..at the 898 area.. (near the rising 50dma)>>
>>MS> Wouldn't be surprised to see this
price level tested.. and also to>> >>MS> hold,
initially>> >>MS>
anyway.>> >>MS> if not, 867-882
looks to be a good higher support area.>>
>>MS> Breaking above last weeks highs and
more important>> >>MS>
953-955 then I am incorrect in my assessment that last
week's>> >>MS> high is "semi"
important and perhaps>> >>MS> a
slightly stronger pullback than what>>
>>MS> we've seen thus far coming off
the>> >>MS> March higher
low.>> >>>> >>MS>
Tend to think any high made latter week>>
>>MS> will be a lower high than last
weeks>> >>MS> high as>>
>>MS> last weeks low was broken
below.>> >>MS> I do>>
>>MS> Best,>>
>>MS> Rhonda>> >>>>
>>>> >>>> >>>>
>>>> >>>> >>>>
>>>> >>>>
>>MS> To unsubscribe from this group, send an
email to:>> >>MS>
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> >>>>
>>>> >>>>
>>MS> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
the Yahoo! Terms of >> Service.>> >>>>
>>>>
>>MS> Yahoo! Groups
Sponsor>>
>>MS>
ADVERTISEMENT>> >>>> >>>>
>>>> >>>> >>MS> To
unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:>>
>>MS> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
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>>MS> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo!
Terms of Service.>> >>>> >>>>
>>>> >>To unsubscribe from this group, send an email
to:>> >>realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
>>>> >>>> >>>> >>Your
use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to <A
href="">http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>>>>>>>>B>
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:>>B>
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>>>>>>>B>
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to <A
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unsubscribe from this group, send an email
to:>>realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>>>>>>>Your
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To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:B>
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