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How
can you ignore the tech sector? That's like pro forma accounting. If I didn't
have to make my house payment everything is rosy. The markets have seen
their lows only if the derivitivies bubble doesn't burst, or consumer debt
doesn't come home to roost. Warren Buffet has said that derivities are a "time
bomb" waiting to happen. Maybe the fed will be able to balance everything out
over time but I wouldn't bet on it.
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>
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Kent Rollins
[mailto:kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 8:12
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: Re[3]:
[RT] spx daily
Corporations have been doing balance sheet repair
for 2 years now. AT&T alone has eliminate over $50 BILLION in
debt. I saw on the tube last week someone who had a stunning statistic
on what the S&P profits are if you ignore the tech sector. Wish I
could remember what that statistic was. And the tech sector will fall in
line soon enough. You are stuck in a rut. The markets have
seen their lows. Shake it off.
Kent Rollins
----- Original Message -----
From: <A
title=bradcline@xxxxxxxxx href="">Brad Cline
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 10:14 PM
Subject: RE: Re[3]: [RT] spx daily
Who
has held the DOW up then? All the foriegn indices have traded at 1994 or lower
levels. We have not traded near those levels. The fed is not dead but is
severely hobbled. I agree with you on the other points. Funnymentally we
should be much lower.
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<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Mark Simms
[mailto:mar.ko@xxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 7:03
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: RE: Re[3]:
[RT] spx daily
Don't watch
the Fed...the "Fed's Dead".....monetary policy becomes useless and worthless
with nominal interest rates near zero....that's why that bumbling idot
Greenspan has been talking in circles lately.....he has no plan, no
effective agenda.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Brad Cline
[mailto:bradcline@xxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 9:38
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: RE: Re[3]:
[RT] spx daily
I copied this. It is interesting if
not true. I know we had a ton of timing for last week but so far we have
got a 2 day retrace with a V bottom. I find it hard to believe that the
FED will let the market fall to far with it being so close to "salvation"
in the public's eyes.
The hypothesis offered is that
the Federal Reserve artificially supports the DOW and the US currency with
permanent and temporary repurchase agreement funding. That funding is then
utilized in the open markets by the borrowers, the large trading houses of
Wall Street. Abnormal activity in the futures markets suggests that the
home for this funding are the major index futures which, when bought,
support the underlying individual stocks.The metric to watch is
not the daily repo issuances but the repo pool totals which can only be
obtained by keeping at least a 28 day running total of both the repos and
their scheduled expirations. For example, an issuance of $20 Billion means
little if there is an expiration of the same amount that day. The key is
to measure the aggregate pool totals since it is that pool that determines
how much repo money can be used to buy index futures on any given
day.Today's [May 22, 2003] Fed Repo Action <SPAN
class=830453201-23052003>The Fed did not allow the repo total pool
to fall today. They issued $15.25 Billion in new repurchase agreements.
When the $11.25 Billion in expirations are accounted for we see that the
repo pool has risen to $40 Billion. The DOW this morning [10:40AM] is up
85 points. It’s an open question whether the Fed will ever allow the DOW
to fall so index shorters beware! It is far better to be long gold and its
shares than short the markets under this external Fed interventional
policy.The repo pool metric is gaining validity as time passes as
the DOW keeps tracking with the repo total pool number. So far the $30
Billion level seems necessary to hold the DOW level. Above that and the
DOW rises
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>
-----Original
Message-----From: BobsKC
[mailto:bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 6:07
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re[3]:
[RT] spx dailyAgain, what is the bullish
sentiment? What people tell pollsters or what they actually
do? If you go by what they are doing, and if you believe in
contrarian principals, (which you obviously do), then you would be
long.BobAt 03:18 AM 5/23/2003 +0400, you
wrote:>Hello BobsKC,>>I am short. To me highest
bullish sentiment is a sign of near top.>>Best
regards,>
Alex
mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx>>>Friday, May 23, 2003,
3:01:13 AM, you wrote:>>B> Bullish sentiment may be
high but in fact, shorting is robust and getting>B>
stronger. So do we go by what people say or what they
do?>>B> Bob>>>>B> At
02:52 AM 5/23/2003 +0400, you wrote:> >>Hello Mark,>
>>> >>%Bearish today is lowest since 1991:>
>>> >><A
href="">http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/inv_intel.asp>
>>> >>". High readings suggest excessive optimism,
which typically occurs> >>when buying strength has been
tapped out, and low readings represent> >>depleted selling
strength, and tend to precede market rallies. We>
>>normally view a bullish percentage higher than 55 combined with
a> >>bearish reading lower 30% as bearish for the
market."> >>> >>> >>Best
regards,> >>
Alex
mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx> >>> >>>
>>Thursday, May 22, 2003, 9:36:17 PM, you wrote:>
>>> >>MS> You meant "higher high", right ?>
>>MS> Don't underestimate the bulls....they are wildly
optimistic right> >>MS> now.....and holding this market
up.> >>MS> Bull-Bear survey ratio now at the highest
point in years....> >>MS> -----Original
Message-----> >>MS> From: none
[mailto:profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]> >>MS> Sent:
Wednesday, May 21, 2003 10:40 PM> >>MS> To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >>MS> Subject:
Re: [RT] spx daily> >>> >>>
>>MS> Hello> >>>
>>MS> I am with you that there is a
high probability that we make a> >>lower high>
>>MS> tomorrow or Fri. and then collapse>
>>MS> Ben>
>>MS> ----- Original Message
-----> >>MS> From: Rhonda
Guilbeaux> >>MS> To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>MS> Sent: Wednesday, May 21, 2003
7:37 PM> >>MS> Subject: [RT] spx
daily> >>> >>>
>>MS> Last quarter's candle waist
882.> >>MS> right at the 200 dma
area.> >>> >>MS>
Higher support..at the 898 area.. (near the rising 50dma)>
>>MS> Wouldn't be surprised to
see this price level tested.. and also to> >>MS> hold,
initially> >>MS> anyway.>
>>MS> if not, 867-882 looks to be a
good higher support area.> >>MS>
Breaking above last weeks highs and more important>
>>MS> 953-955 then I am incorrect
in my assessment that last week's>
>>MS> high is "semi" important and
perhaps> >>MS> a slightly
stronger pullback than what>
>>MS> we've seen thus far coming off
the> >>MS> March higher
low.> >>> >>MS>
Tend to think any high made latter week>
>>MS> will be a lower high than last
weeks> >>MS> high as>
>>MS> last weeks low was broken
below.> >>MS> I do>
>>MS> Best,>
>>MS> Rhonda> >>>
>>> >>> >>> >>>
>>> >>> >>> >>>
>>MS> To unsubscribe from this group,
send an email to:> >>MS>
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >>>
>>> >>> >>MS>
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of >
Service.> >>> >>>
>>MS> Yahoo!
Groups Sponsor>
>>MS>
ADVERTISEMENT> >>> >>> >>>
>>> >>MS> To unsubscribe from this
group, send an email to:> >>MS>
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >>>
>>> >>> >>MS> Your use of
Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.>
>>> >>> >>> >>To
unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:>
>>realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >>>
>>> >>> >>Your use of Yahoo! Groups is
subject to <A
href="">http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>>>>B>
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:>B>
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>>>B>
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to <A
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