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I tend to agree.
Putting a standard Bollinger Band on the VIX shows that it was below
the lower band and recently reversed back inside the lower band.
Interest rates have dropped significantly and the yield spread between
the 10-year T-Bond and the 90-day T-Bill have tightend significantly
over the past few days. Falling rates lately have been accompanied by a
lower market and when the spread tightens optimisim is waning. Finally,
the two day range has hit a 10 day low indicating a contraction in
volatility and suggesting that a break out is near. However, the
breakout usually follows a day where the "low is made first" if it is
headed lower. Accordingly, I would look for tomorrow to be an "up day"
of some sort and the sell off to commense Monday.
>>> bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx 05/08/03 01:57PM >>>
looking like Niagara falls is coming
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