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Re: [RT] VON MISES AND AN ECONOMIC BLUEPRINT?



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Tks Navtej-
 
This certainly looks like an illuminating 
read!  I'm obviously trying hard to not become an expert 
in
economic truth.  <FONT face=Arial 
size=2>An ambitious goal such as this would involve a lifetime of reading, 
studying
and 
researching.    
 
chas  
<BLOCKQUOTE 
>
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV 
  >From: 
  Navtej S. Nandra 
  (RR) 
  To: <A 
  href="" 
  title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  Sent: Sunday, May 04, 2003 9:14 AM
  Subject: Re: [RT] VON MISES AND AN 
  ECONOMIC BLUEPRINT?
  
  You may want to read the book "Tomorrow's Gold" 
  by Marc Faber.  Known as Dr. Doom for his uncanny ability to identify 
  bubbles and manias (Dow 87, Nikkei, Asian Tigers, Nasdaq recent), Faber is 
  also great at identifying new opportunities.  He explains all this rather 
  well in his book with theories, facts, numbers and charts.  Since he is 
  an economic historian, he draws upon examples that are centuries old (as 
  well).  BTW, he also is an ardent student of the Austrian School and uses 
  business cycles to explain Booms, Busts and Recoveries.  Try:  <A 
  href="">http://www.gloomboomdoom.com to 
  learn more about Faber.  Of course, the book is probably available on 
  Amazon.
  I have no connection with Faber, just enjoyed the 
  book.  He sees a lot of opportunity in selected parts of Asia, but that 
  is his priority opportunity.  He is equally facile with the rest of the 
  world.
  Navtej
  <BLOCKQUOTE 
  >
    ----- Original Message ----- 
    <DIV 
    >From: 
    Charles Meyer 

    To: <A 
    href="" 
    title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>REAL TRADERS 
    Sent: Sunday, May 04, 2003 9:27 
AM
    Subject: [RT] VON MISES AND AN ECONOMIC 
    BLUEPRINT?
    
    Group-
     
    Looks like I've got way too much time on my 
    hands this Sunday morning in a note sent to a couple
    of my correspondents.  <FONT 
    face=Arial size=2>Maybe I'm coming up with my 
    own version of economic faith on this traditional day of Christian 
    worship.(:-)  <FONT face=Arial 
    size=2>All fwiw.....thank you for your time and attention.
    <FONT face=Arial 
    size=2>=====================================================================
     
    I believe everything that is written in this 
    article to my core being.  Intuitively; I know these 
    economic
    concepts to be the truth; and supported by 
    history.  It seems to me 
    that the Austrian School of Economics are the only <FONT 
    face=Arial size=2>fundamental concepts and 
    explanations that I can relate to 
    as the basis of logic without flaws and <FONT face=Arial 
    size=2>supported by facts and evidence.  Still; for me 
    there exists an intellectual dicotomy 
    here regards this explanation of economic history; for even as I 
    read; and re-read the article; there are 
    gaps in my understanding of specific details 
    cited in this article.  In other words; even if I memorized this piece 
    word for word; I would be unable to fully 
    explain how this works to someone at a cocktail party.  If I could then 
    I would be fully able to explain and expand 
    on why these economic concepts are the truth about what has happened and 
    what is now happening.  It is the one 
    good economic oriented explanation I've seen 
    as to why we are in a secular bear market 
    which is to 
    last for at least a few years to 
    come.  I would love to 
    see ONE book which breaks down 
    this
    economic logic into <FONT 
    face=Arial size=2>easy to understand examples; using specific numbers; and 
    which addresses what appear to be some 
    unanswered explanations.  Perhaps it is a lack of understanding on my 
    part; or mental laziness and <FONT 
    face=Arial size=2>unwillingness to study this piece again and 
    again.
     
    Even before these economic comparisions 
    between the great depression and the current economic
    period; cyclical and astro theorists have 
    stated that we can expect a period similiar to 1873 - 1886.
    In looking at a log chart of prices during that 
    time the broad intermediate price swings that occurred
    can be labeled as follows:
     
    6 5/8....5....6 1/4....4 3/4....7 7/8....5 
    7/8....7 7/8.
     
    6 5/8 is the level of prices; roughly; at the 
    beginning of 1873.  At the end of 1886 note that prices
    were roughly at the same level as the peak 
    which occurred in 1881.  Interestingly; this pattern fits
    perfectly with all the unique and historically 
    compelling studies of economic history that <FONT face=Arial 
    size=2>John Manuldin has been reporting in 
    his weekly e-mails.  Of course the pattern is not going to be 
    exact;
    because as some accurate observer stated; 
    'history does not replicate it rhymes'.  About all we know
    is that there will be both <FONT 
    face=Arial size=2>great opportunities--and great <FONT 
    face=Arial size=2>frustrations-- for 
    traders on both the long and short side of 
    the market.  
     
    I can't say if all this information can be tied 
    together in a synergestic manner that 
    represents an accurate blueprint for the future; but I haven't seen any 
    other arguments out there that I'm more 
    willing to believe.  
     
     
    chas
     
     
    ----- Original Message ----- 
    From: <A 
    href="" title=article@xxxxxxxxx>Mises Daily 
    Article 
    To: <A href="" 
    title=article@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Mises Daily Article 
    Sent: Friday, April 18, 2003 7:55 AM
    Subject: Does a Falling Money Stock Cause Economic 
    Depression?
    
    <A 
    href="">http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=1211
    <FONT color=#002864 
size=1> 
    Does 
    a Falling Money Stock Cause Economic Depression? 
    
    
    By Frank Shostak
    [Posted April1 18, 2003]
    <IMG align=right border=0 
    src="">Despite the aggressive 
    lowering of the federal funds rate target from 6.5% in December, 2000 to the 
    current level of 1.25%, U.S. economic activity remains subdued. Faced with a 
    lackluster response to this aggressive monetary stance, it is tempting to 
    draw parallels with the 1930's economic depression. 
    Most economists hold that such comparisons are not 
    warranted. Following the writings of Milton Friedman, they are of the view 
    that the policy makers of the Fed have learned the lesson of the Great 
    Depression and know how to avoid a major economic slump.
    In his writings Milton Friedman blamed central bank policies 
    for causing the Great Depression. According to Friedman the Federal Reserve 
    failed to pump enough reserves into the banking system to prevent a collapse 
    in the money stock (Milton and Rose Friedman's Free To Choose). In 
    response to this failure, Friedman argues, money stock, M1, fell by 33% 
    between late 1930 and early 1933 (see chart).
    <IMG border=0 
    src="">
    According to Friedman, as a result of the collapse in the 
    money stock economic activity followed suit. Thus by July 1932 year-on-year 
    industrial production fell by over 31% (see chart). Also, year-on-year the 
    consumer price index (CPI) had plunged. By October 1932 the CPI fell by 
    10.7% (see chart).
    <IMG border=0 
    src=""> <IMG border=0 
    src="">
    However, a close examination of the historical data shows 
    that contrary to Friedman the Fed was extremely loose and pumped reserves 
    into the system in its attempt to revive the economy (on this see Murray 
    Rothbard's <A href="" 
    target=_blank>America's Great Depression). The extent of monetary 
    injections is depicted by changes in the Fed's holdings of U.S. government 
    securities. Thus on January 1930 these holdings stood at $485 million. By 
    December 1933 they had jumped to $2,432 million&#8212;an increase of 401% (see 
    chart). Moreover, the average yearly rate of monetary injections by the Fed 
    during this period stood at 98%.
    <IMG border=0 
    src="">
    Also, short-term interest rates fell from almost 4% at the 
    beginning of 1930 to 0.9% by September 1931 (see chart). Another indication 
    of a loose monetary stance on the part of the Fed was the widening in the 
    differential between the yield on the 10-year T-Bond and the yield on the 
    90-day Bankers Acceptances. The differential rose from -0.51% in January 
    1930 to 2.37% by September 1931 (see chart).
    <IMG border=0 
    src=""> <IMG border=0 
    src="">
    The sharp fall in the money stock between 1930 to 1933, 
    contrary to Friedman, is not indicative of the Federal Reserve's failure to 
    pump money. Instead it is indicative of a shrinking base of investable 
    capital brought about by the previous loose monetary policies of the 
    central bank. Thus the yield spread increased from -0.9% in early 1920 to 
    1.9% by the end of 1925 (an upward sloping yield curve indicates loose 
    monetary stance). The reversal of the stance by the Fed from 1926 to 1929 
    burst the monetary bubble (see chart).
    <IMG border=0 
    src="">
    In addition to this, at some stages monetary injections were 
    massive. For instance, the yearly rate of growth of government securities 
    holdings by the Fed jumped from 19.7% in April 1924 to 608% by November 
    1924. Then from 0.3% in July 1927 the yearly rate of growth accelerated to 
    92% by November 1927. Needless to say that such massive monetary pumping 
    amounted to a massive exchange of nothing for something and to a severe 
    depletion of the pool of real funding, that is, the essential source of 
    current and future capital needed to sustain growth. 
    As long as the pool of real funding is expanding and banks 
    are eager to expand credit (credit out of "thin air") various nonproductive 
    activities continue to prosper. Whenever the extensive creation of credit 
    out of "thin air" lifts the pace of real-wealth consumption above the pace 
    of real-wealth production the flow of real savings is arrested and a decline 
    in the pool of real funding is set in motion. Consequently, the performance 
    of various activities starts to deteriorate and banks' bad loans start to 
    rise. In response to this, banks curtail their lending activities and this 
    in turn sets in motion a decline in the money stock. 
    The fall in the money stock begins to further undermine 
    various nonproductive activities, i.e. an economic depression emerges. In 
    this regard after growing by 2.7% year-on-year in January 1930 bank loans 
    had fallen by a massive 29% by March 1933 (see chart).
    <IMG border=0 
    src="">
    How is it possible that lenders can generate credit out "of 
    thin air" which in turn can lead to the disappearance of money? Now, when 
    loaned money is fully backed up by savings, on the day of the loan's 
    maturity it is returned to the original lender. Thus, Bob&#8212;the borrower of 
    $100&#8212;will pay back on the maturity date the borrowed sum plus interest. The 
    bank in turn will pass to Joe, the lender, his $100 plus interest adjusted 
    for bank fees. To put it briefly, the money makes a full circle and goes 
    back to the original lender.
    In contrast, when credit is created out of "thin air" and 
    returned on the maturity day to the bank this amounts to a withdrawal of 
    money from the economy, i.e, to a decline in the money stock. The reason for 
    this is because there wasn't any original saver/lender, since this credit 
    was created out of "thin air." 
    It follows then that the sole cause behind the wide swings 
    in the stock of money is the existence of fractional reserve banking, which 
    gives rise to unbacked-by-savings credit. (In the <A 
    href="" 
    target=_blank>Mystery of Banking Murray Rothbard showed that it is 
    the existence of the central bank that enables fractional reserve banking to 
    thrive). 
    Observe that economic depressions are not caused by the 
    collapse in the money stock (as suggested by Milton Friedman), but come in 
    response to a shrinking pool of real funding on account of previous of loose 
    money. Consequently, even if the central bank were to be successful in 
    preventing the fall of the money stock, this would not be able to prevent a 
    depression if the pool of real funding is declining. Also, even if loose 
    monetary polices were to succeed in lifting prices and inflationary 
    expectations (as suggested by Paul Krugman), this would not revive the 
    economy as long as real funding is declining.
    Again, note that contrary to popular thinking, depressions 
    are not caused by tight monetary policies, but are rather the result of 
    previous loose monetary policies. On the contrary, a tighter monetary stance 
    arrests the depletion of the pool of real funding and thereby lays the 
    foundations for economic recovery. Furthermore, the tighter stance reveals 
    the damage that was done to the capital structure by previous monetary 
    policies. 
    Have we learned the lesson of the Great 
    Depression?
    Do central banks have all the necessary tools to prevent a 
    severe economic slump similar to the one that occurred in the 1930's? Most 
    economists are adamant that modern central banks know how to counter the 
    menace of a severe recession. 
    But if this is the case why has the central bank of Japan 
    failed so far in reviving the Japanese economy? The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has 
    used all the known tricks as far as monetary pumping is concerned. Thus 
    interest rates were lowered to almost zero (see chart) while BOJ monetary 
    pumping as depicted by its holdings of government securities increased by 
    323% between January 1990 and March 2003 (see chart).
    <IMG border=0 
    src=""> <IMG border=0 
    src="">
    It is likewise in the U.S. For over two years the Fed has 
    been aggressively lowering interest rates and yet economic activity remains 
    subdued (see chart). For instance, in relation to its long-term trend 
    industrial production remains in free fall (see chart). The Fed's holdings 
    of government securities have increased by 189% between 1990 Q1 and 2002 Q4. 
    The yearly rate of growth of these holdings jumped to 14.1% in Q4 2002 from 
    9.8% in Q1 (see chart).
    <IMG border=0 
    src=""> <IMG border=0 
    src="">
    <IMG border=0 
    src=""> <IMG border=0 
    src="">
    Moreover, a steep fall in the personal income to personal 
    outlays ratio indicates that the pool of real funding is under 
    pressure (see chart). Note that during the 1930's the fall in this ratio 
    wasn't as steep as now (see chart).
    <IMG border=0 
    src=""> <IMG border=0 
    src="">
    We suspect that there is a strong likelihood that if the 
    economy does not rebound soon, the Fed will lower interest rates further and 
    will intensify its monetary pumping. This, however, will only further 
    prolong the economic misery.
    
    
    
    
    Frank Shostak is an adjunct scholar of the Mises Institute 
    and a frequent contributor to Mises.org.  Send him <A 
    href=""><FONT color=#000080 
    size=2>MAIL and see his outstanding 
    Mises.org <A 
    href="" 
    target=_top>Daily Articles 
    Archive. Special thanks to Michael Ryan for 
    his comments, thanks Peter Stellios for assisting in collection of 
    historical data.
    
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