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hey Bob,
FYI, I have a 30 day cycle low that is due near
expiry.
a cycle will usually come back and tag a moving
average of the same length; the 30 day average is currently near the
848-850
region, which is added weight to your #1 assessment
below.
Jim
<BLOCKQUOTE
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
BobR
To: <A title=MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; <A
title=swingmachine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Swingmachine
Sent: Sunday, April 06, 2003 11:47
AM
Subject: Re: [MedianLine] Re: [RT] Short
Term Bulls & Bears
This is getting to be interesting with the
various views. Here are some additional factors going into next
week.
FUNDAMENTAL
1. The open interest max pain point(tm of
w.ez-pnf.com) for the SPX(cash) is at the 850 strike price. Friday
ES close was 878.75 with only a half point premium to the cash. Going
into expiration this max pain point is thought to act like a magnet. Its
been at 850 for more than a few weeks, a month or more.
SEASONAL
2. This is pre-options expiration week. If
the market has been going up the previous week, then during the pre-options
expiration week it isn't surprising to see some pullback until Thursday or
Friday.
3. The so called beginning of month seasonality
ends on Monday, i.e. the 5th trading day of the month when the switchers go
from stocks back to moneymarkets.
4. TAX time, remains to be seen which will
dominate, revenue raising to pay taxes or an IRA funding week. Last week
jacked prices up to the 200 day SMA on the SPX just in time to facilitate
the profittakers and IRA funding public.
TECHNICAL
5. The Gann Swing on 30 minute bars is now
pointing downward so the priority is given to the dark blue pitchfork.
Daily Gann Swing is upward.....but it has been making lower lows and lower
highs. Daily mirror line is at 856
6. 200 day SMA has been resistance for 3
days. The 200 day average is at 884.70resistance, 20 day average is at
856.75support and the 50 day 846.30support. Since the 200 day is still
sloping downward the mode is still considered bearish. The GannSwing is
at 884.25.
bobr
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=timothysharp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">timothysharp
To: <A title=MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, April 06, 2003 12:08
AM
Subject: Re: [MedianLine] Re: [RT]
Short Term Bulls & Bears
guess I'll chime in here with
another possible view.
I see the potential for a drop
back to the 840ish range, basis the esm03, based on my channel work and the
possible diamond formation in the 60-min chart.
Note also that there's a
little H&S pattern that developed in Friday's session, with a
neckline at the ~873 range.
It will certainly be an
interesting week to see how these differing views play
out.
--ts
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