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RE: [RT] Gold

To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: RE: [RT] Gold
From: "Brad Cline" <bradcline@xxxxxxxxx>
Date: Mon, 10 Mar 2003 18:50:10 -0800
In-reply-to: <3E6CC913.7040200@xxxxxxxxxxx>

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<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Professionals have been selling the stocks for some time now. Stocks have
not kept up with golds rise in price. <A
href="">www.lemetropolecafe.com has been
saying that the big money ( JPM Chase, GS and quite a few central
banks ) have been controlling the price of gold since 1996. They make some
seemingly unrefutable points to support their point if you take the time to read
thru the archives. This is the daily news letter for today.

<FONT face="Times New Roman,Times,Times NewRoman"
color=#000000 size=+2>The James Joyce Table

Gold, Commodities, Midas du
Metropole

Topic du Jour

March 10 – Gold Up $4.10 – Silver $4.64 to $4.68??
Gold Pops Right Back Up/Share Divergence Unsustainable

If you can keep your head when all about youAre
losing theirs and blaming it on you,If you can trust yourself
when all men doubt youBut make allowance for their doubting
too,If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,Or being
lied about, don't deal in lies,Or being hated, don't give way
to hating,And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:

If you can dream--and not make dreams your
master,If you can think--and not make thoughts your aim;If
you can meet with Triumph and DisasterAnd treat those two
impostors just the same;If you can bear to hear the truth
you've spokenTwisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,Or
watch the things you gave your life to, broken,And stoop and
build 'em up with worn-out tools:
If you can make one heap of all your winningsAnd
risk it all on one turn of pitch-and-toss,And lose, and start
again at your beginningsAnd never breath a word about your
loss;If you can force your heart and nerve and sinewTo
serve your turn long after they are gone,And so hold on when
there is nothing in youExcept the Will which says to them:
"Hold on!"
If you can talk with crowds and keep your
virtue,Or walk with kings--nor lose the common touch,If
neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you;If all men count
with you, but none too much,If you can fill the unforgiving
minuteWith sixty seconds' worth of distance run,Yours is
the Earth and everything that's in it,And--which is
more--you'll be a Man, my son!
--Rudyard Kipling
IF you can withstand this insane, short-term, panic type of gold
share selling, you will make a fortune.
Gold’s performance today was extraordinary after the pounding it
took by the goon squad on Friday. The cabal forces audacity is
unprecedented. It is revealing to the gold world what GATA has
repeatedly brought to its attention for over four years. The best
The Gold Cartel could do today was to keep gold from taking out $355
again. Basically, gold was $3/$4.50 higher since last evening’s
trading in Japan. The Cartel’s DO NOT PASS GO flag was raised during
the Comex session and that was it for the upside. But, the bad guys
could not muster any downside selling pressure.
Unfortunately for The Gold Cartel, the physical market demand for
gold is so strong that BIG buyers are waiting in the wings these
days to pick up cheap gold on their increasingly predictable
attacks. The buyers are numerous and compete with each other on
these orchestrated price-bashings. These consumers regard sub-$350
gold as a gift. Consequently, gold doesn’t stay at, or below, $350
for any length of time.
In time past, MIDAS has referred to some of these buyers as Dr.
No and Hung FAT. These kind of gold buyers have been eating the
lunch of the crooked Gold Cartel for well over a year and are
laughing at them now, for they know where the gold price HAS to go
to achieve any kind of equilibrium. Unfortunately, these physical
market buyers care little to nothing about the gold shares.
Over the years, one of the mantras of The Gold Cartel has been to
keep gold excitement to a minimum. Since they are having trouble
taking gold down, it is clear they are orchestrating an attack on
the shares. The S&P warning on the gold shares was like the
raising of the margin requirement for spec longs on Comex. It was a
signal to attack and that attack has turned the gold share
technicals bearish to very bearish. Traders that rely on technical
signals and money management rules are forced to sell. That selling
momentum is now feeding on itself.
The XAU dropped 2.50 to 64.94, while the HUI was shellacked 6.01
to 119.53 on a substantial gold up day.
The undervaluation of the shares versus bullion is becoming
absurd as they are now priced for sub-$300 gold. This is having a
demoralizing effect on gold share investors and has calmed down gold
fever excitement that was so rampant a month ago. The Gold Cartel
and colleagues achieved their desired effect. Don’t you just love
the free markets we have in America?
Putting the short-term aggravation aside, the set-up for a coming
gold share price explosion could not be better than it is today:
*The disdain of equity markets is growing as stock markets sink
all over the world.*Falling interest rates are gold friendly. As
financial chaos increases, interest rates are likely to come down
even further.*Inflation is on the rise in the US. This means we
are going into a situation where the inflation rate will by far
exceed the Fed Funds rate. Dramatic, NEGATIVE interest rates has
always been VERY gold bullish.*How can a war be ultimately
bearish? Uncertainty and world tension are likely to grow because of
THIS war, not decrease.*The dollar is in serious
trouble.*The Gold Cartel is running out of gold on the margin to
continue their scam.*Most of the world is turning on the US
because of the war. That means most will turn on the dollar too.
More oil producing countries are likely to turn to euros as payment
of their oil. That will be very gold friendly.*Commodity prices
are going up.*There is a massive short position in gold. It is
only a matter of time before the gold derivatives neutron bomb goes
off: BIG TIME!
Gold is headed for the $415 area once it takes out $360. That
will be its first stop on its way to $800/$1,000. The move in the
gold shares will make the internet share move of years back look
rinky-dink. All that need happen is to have the investment world
realize where gold is going to and why. The most bearish item for
the gold shares is the coming war. The financial media and gold
establishment (GFMS) have indoctrinated investors that gold will
collapse once the war starts, so many want out ahead of time,
especially now that the technicals have turned bearish. The entire
scenario is just bizarre.
I have seen market moves like those we are experiencing in the
gold shares at certain critical junctures in the past. They are
called "killer moves." The move down cleans out all
stale/weak longs before a giant move on the upside – one that moves
further and faster than most anyone could imagine. Stay tuned.
The John Brimelow Report
Monday March 10 2003
Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $4.84, PM $5.07, with world gold at
$353.50 and $353. With local taxes now nearly harmonized at 1%, this
means Indian prices are comfortably above import point. India should
be a steady supporter of world gold in the $350s.
Shrugging off a firmer yen and gold’s NY trouncing, TOCOM made a
spirited attempt to take $US gold higher on Mondays’ open, only to
be stopped cold by what Reuters describes as
"Arbitrage selling by big Japanese trading houses".
able apparently to access plentiful gold offshore without
disturbing the ultra-low gold lease rates.
"Steamed up by Tocom-led buying, gold sped to 354.50 before
running out of fuel and trade selling capped the upside. The flurry
of alarm came and wilted in the first 15 minutes of trading before
market stabilized at 353.75 for rest of the session, not even
responding to the expected test-firing of cruise missile into the
Sea of Japan by N. Korea."reports Mitsui-HK.
At the end, $US gold was up $3.30 above the NY Friday close, at
$353.50. The active contract closed down 12 yen, but on open
interest rose tidily, by the equivalent of 2,661 Comex lots, on
volume equal to 26,608 Comex contracts. This continues the recent
pattern of quite large open interest increases in relation to
volume, taking place in the face of a normally inimical strong yen.
It now stands at the equivalent of 134,120 Comex lots. (NY on Friday
traded 63,488 lots: open interest was up 1642 at 194598.)
Professional observers were clearly severely shaken by the
bushwhacking gold received in NY on Friday. No doubt some had to
hurriedly dump trading positions, or like Refco, were stopped out
unfavorably. Prospector Asset Management’s Leonard Kaplan, usually
at pains to affect omniscience, grumbles testily of
"large movements in prices occurring on rumors, hints of rumors,
and blatant fabrications…just the release of a rumor on
Friday that the sons of Osama Bin Laden had been captured, was
enough to plummet gold prices by $12 in just 3 hours."
HSBC complains:
"The gold price move was out of kilter with the mainstream
financial markets – the euro, the dollar and the major bourses did
not experience nearly the same volatility."
Events like last Friday are influential beyond their literal
price impact of course: Dow Jones reports Australian traders
noting:"…participants, now wary of gold's stubbornness to rise
significantly higher regardless of typically gold-friendly factors
and its ability to fall swiftly on any gold-bearish factors, prefer
to wait on the sidelines instead of trading aggressively…" and many
have probably concluded, along with the gold shares and
Mitsui-Sydney that
"there's some real selling above the market."
Nevertheless, on a day which sees a procession of Japanese
Officials threatening unorthodox actions to stem the alarming slide
of the Japanese stock market (another 20 year low today) and with
the Fed digesting the disturbing economic news of Friday –
" …it is looking increasingly certain that the economy is falling
behind the typical recovery path….The odds of the US economy
slipping into recession again are rising".

[Bridgewater Daily Observations today] to say nothing of the
latest FNM scare, Wartime censorship seems unlikely to restrain
gold long.
JBThis story was featured in Switzerland’s most prominent
newspaper and caught a great deal of attention in Europe:

BillHere is a translation of this article below from the
Swiss Sonntagsblick of 09.03.03 from german into
english:Best,Alan
<A
href="">http://www.blick.ch/PB2G/PB2GA/pb2ga.htm?snr=47592
Is our Gold still safe with "Mr War" Bush?
Where are the 2000 Tonnes of Swiss Gold reserves deposited? The
Swiss National Bank is silent. According to rumours a large part is
thought to be stored in the vaults of american Fort Knox. That could
have unpleasant consequences, in the event that US President Bush
goes to war without a mandate from the UNO.
" I dont know ", said the Zuerich SVP Nationalrat Bruno Zuppiger,
member of the Finance Commission. " I dont know ", said the St.
Gallen CVP Nationalrat Felix Walker, member of the Finance
Delegation and former head of the Raiffeisen Bank. " I dont know ",
said the Bern FDP Nationalraetin Kaethi Bangerter, member of the
Bankrats of the Swiss National Bank and the Finance Commission.
The question, that SonntagsBlick put this week to several
financial politicians was: Where is our Gold? Where does the
National Bank store its Gold reserves? The " National Wealth " which
is so much under discussion, because half of it is being sold and
the utilisation of the proceeds is politically controversial. The "
Gold Treasure " , which currently amounts to approximately 2000
Tonnes.
Where is our gold? That is exactly what Bern SP Nationalrat Paul
Guenter now wants to know. The Security politician will put three
questions to the Bundesrat in tomorrow Monday's parliamentary
question time.
Is it true, that a considerable part of the Swiss Gold reserves
are stored in Fort Knox in the USA?
Are the Swiss Gold reserves also stored in other places and in
other countries?
How quickly, under what circumstances, and from whom can this
gold be recalled and returned to Switzerland?
The Gold Puzzle. Today there are only rumours. A part is
supposedly stored underneath the Bundesplatz in Bern. A part in Fort
Knox in the US state of Kentucky, the most important storage place
for the US gold reserves and deposit for all the european Central
Banks. A further part in London, the centre of the international
gold trade.
SonntagsBlick posed questions to the Nationalbank. However
spokesman Werner Abegg replied protectively: " Many different
rumours are in circulation concerning the nationalbanks gold. For
security reasons it is impossible for us to make any comments or
corrective statements." The Swiss Nationalbank's spokesman could
only be drawn so far to reveal: " The gold is stored in several
places both in Switzerland and abroad." According to Abegg following
the motto: " The clever farmer does not put all his eggs into one
basket."
The apprehension is clear: the gold could be stolen. This fear
appears to be so great , that the Nationalbank refuses to give any
indication whatsoever as to the storage places (countries,
continents).
SP member Guenther has completely different misgivings. " If it
is true that a large part of the gold is stored in Fort Knox, then
the situation is extremely uncomfortable. If the USA were to go to
war with Iraq without a UNO mandate, the gold is stored in the wrong
place - then it must be brought back (to Switzerland)."
He explains why: We cannot store our gold with a nation that is
at war. And what would happen, if the USA, who is acting without
scruples in the Iraq affair, would suddenly blackmail us using our
gold deposited there?" Guenther is afraid that the USA could freeze
our gold. " That would be a clear controversion of international
law. Then we would have to defend our interests at the court in
Strassburg (F)," said Bern SVP Nationalrat and finance politician
Hermann Weyeneth.
Withdrawl of the gold. That was also demanded 5 years ago by
Appenzeller CVP Staenderat Carlo Schmid. When during the Holocaust
debate a US collective process was threatened against the
Nationalbank, he demanded: " All gold deposited in the USA must be
returned." If the gold is really there. The only certainty is:
Originally the SNB had 2600 Tonnes. Half is being sold, up until the
end of 2002, 660 Tonnes had gone. Currently 1 Tonne is being sold
daily for approximately 15'000 Sfr per kilo.
Will we know more on Monday? Unlikely. Finance Minister Kaspar
Villiger will not disclose in Parliament where the "treasure" is
being stored. For "security reasons." " They have something they are
hiding" complains Guenther. The Bern politician Weyeneth ridiculed "
They really believe Napoleon is coming again. And he
will take away the gold, just like he did 200 years ago from the
Berner Treasury."
END OF TRANSLATION - original article follows in german.
The German people ought to be asking the Bundesbank about its own
gold and query if any of the German gold has been lent/swapped with
the United States. They may never get it back.
Today’s follow up from the Swiss Parliament:
Bill Kaspar Villiger - (Finance Minister in the Swiss Federal
Government) doesnt know where the Swiss National Bank's gold
reserves have been deposited abroad. A question of security,
according to him. He could not say whether it was the USA as
supposed by Paul Guenter. But, even if this had been the case,
he would have no objection. Despite the Iraq crisis and their
economic difficulties, the USA remains a state respecting the law,
he underligned. The gold reserves of the BNS are just as safe there
as elsewhere.............. END of extract
This was his reply in parliament today to the question from
P.Guenther as outlined in the SonntagsBlick article I sent to you
earlier today. Best Alan
<A
href="">http://www.romandie.com/ats/NewsATS/display.asp?page=20030310180950180172019048041.xml

Kaspar Villiger ne sait pas où sont les réserves d'or de la
BNS
BERNE - Kaspar Villiger ne sait pas où ont été déposées les
réserves d'or de la Banque national suisse à l'étranger. Question de
sécurité, selon lui. Le conseiller fédéral n'a pas pu dire s'il
s'agissait des USA, comme le suppose le socialiste Paul Günter.
Mais, même si cela était le cas, Kaspar Villiger n'aurait pas
d'objection. Malgré la crise irakienne et leurs difficultés
économiques, les Etats-Unis restent un Etat de droit, a-t-il
souligné. Les réserves d'or de la BNS y seraient aussi bien
qu'ailleurs.
La répartition à l'étranger d'une part des réserves d'or de la
BNS répond à un souci de diversification ainsi que de réduction des
risques. Plusieurs critères entrent en ligne de compte dans le choix
des pays retenus. Ceux-ci doivent ainsi disposer d'un important
marché de l'or et offrir une grande stabilité économique et
politique.
Il faut en outre qu'en cas de crise la Suisse puisse avoir
facilement accès à son bien. La BNS examine régulièrement la
situation et procède aux adaptations nécessaires en fonction des
développements, a expliqué lundi Kaspar Villiger en réponse à une
question du conseiller national Paul Günter (PS/BE).
-END-
Big news day out of Switzerland, from a BIS Press Release:
SDR to replace gold franc at the BIS
10 March 2003
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) today announced that
the Special Drawing Right (SDR) would replace the gold franc as the
Bank's unit of account as from 1 April 2003. This decision was made
today at an Extraordinary General Meeting of member central banks of
the BIS. The Bank also decided to take steps towards modernising its
financial accounting and reporting practices.Used by a number of
international organisations, the SDR is an international unit of
account defined by the IMF and based on a basket of major
currencies. The gold franc has served as the unit of account for the
BIS since its establishment in 1930….. –END-
Not sure what it means? Note: "extraordinary General Meeting."
Will wait for Reg Howe’s and James Turk's analysis. <FONT
face=Arial size=2>
Speaking of the Swiss, Jim Puplava did an interview Saturday with
ex-Swiss Banker and GATA supporter, Ferdinand Lips. I consider Ferdi
(Bank Lips) a wonderful friend. His interview may be read
at:<A
href="">http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2003/Lips.htm
First GATA, then Buffet, now the Fed’s Poole warns:
ReutersFed's Poole-shocks to Fannie, Freddie could
spreadMonday March 10, 9:03 am ET
WASHINGTON, March 10 (Reuters) - An unexpected financial shock at
either of the top U.S. home finance companies, Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM
- News) or Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE - News) could inflict heavy damage
on the broader U.S. economy, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank
President William Poole said on Monday.
"Should either firm be rocked by a mistake or by an
unforecastable shock, in the absence of robust contingency
arrangements the result could be a crisis in U.S. financial markets
that would inflict considerable damage on the housing industry and
the U.S. economy," Poole said at a symposium on the two companies,
known as government-sponsored enterprises.
Surprises that destabilize financial markets can and do occur
with some frequency, Poole said. Because of the scale of the
short-term debt obligations of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a problem
at either company would spread quickly, he said.
"A market crisis could become acute in a matter of days, or even
hours," Poole said.
The regional Fed president recommended the U.S. government
withdraw one of the advantages it gives Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
to help expand U.S. homeownership -- the ability to lend either firm
billions of dollars. This would make clear to markets that the U.S.
government feels no obligation to guarantee the companies' debt.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should also be required to hold
greater capital as a cushion, Poole said.
"My sense is that the firms are vulnerable to nonquantifiable
risks because their capital positions are so low," he said.
-END-
The derivatives commotion is really picking up steam, FOR GOOD
REASON:
Canada’s Globe and Mail
By AMANDA LANGMonday, March 10, 2003 - Page B8
There is a tempest brewing for capital markets that could prove
sizable. At the centre of the storm: derivatives, and how they might
harm capital markets.
Warren Buffett, legendary chief of Berkshire Hathaway, warns in
his annual letter to shareholders that these instruments are the
silent "weapons of mass destruction" of the financial markets.
Meanwhile, derivatives are at the heart of a lawsuit launched
against Barrick Gold Corp. that, whatever the merits or weakness of
that suit, raises fascinating questions about the use of such
instruments.
A derivative can be many things, since it is merely any contract
that has a value derived from another asset, such as an option on a
stock. Chief financial officers can protect against currency swings
in foreign subsidiaries by using interest rate swaps. Pork belly and
natural gas futures are derivatives. Not all derivatives, then, are
created equal. But what they do have in common is the extent to
which they are loosely regulated and widely misunderstood.
This is not a minor market. One estimate of the number of
derivatives traded outside exchanges is a record $128-trillion
(U.S.) in the first six months of 2002. That was a 15-per-cent
increase from the year before.
Mr. Buffett's concern is that this market is both complex and
opaque, leaving investors little means of valuing a portfolio of
derivatives and hardly any way to measure its risk. Mr. Buffett
himself has profited from using options on stocks, but now he says
the market's complexity suggests some kind of regulatory response is
needed.
Many disagree, including Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan
Greenspan, who has said he believes the increasing use of
derivatives helps U.S. markets spread risk among participants, and
thereby lessens volatility of price changes, up and down.
Credit derivatives are a hot and growing category in the field,
and it's one that many market watchers think will help prevent
domino-like reactions in business after one firm fails. WorldCom,
which made the biggest bankruptcy filing in U.S. history, had
credit-risk derivatives written on about $10-billion of its
debt.
The derivatives used by Barrick are relatively common among gold
companies. The company sells its production forward, or pledges to
sell the gold it has yet to extract at preset prices.
But Barrick takes the process a step beyond that. Its solid
balance sheet gives it strong credit with banks; that allows it
unusual leeway, including automatically renewable forward contracts
that are up to 15 years in duration.
Barrick also engages in more complex financial manoeuvres to
protect its profit. It is some of those manoeuvres, and the duration
of its forward contracts, that have caught the attention of
U.S.-based gold dealer, Blanchard and Co. Inc. The dealer has filed
a lawsuit against the mining giant, claiming that the practice of
locking in lower future prices actually manipulates the current
market price.
It sometimes makes sense, if a company has a fixed output for a
year, to try to lock in a price with its buyers. And it can lock in
those prices longer term, if buyers are willing to take the risk
that the market price won't fall in the meantime.
But Blanchard's claim is that Barrick, with bullion bank J.P.
Morgan Chase & Co., engaged in short sales of gold, while
locking in the longer-term prices with buyers.
Any short sale (where an investor sells an asset he has borrowed
from someone else, with the promise to replace it later on) is a
derivative bet on a falling price, even as the very process adds
supply to a market, depressing prices.
That doesn't make it illegal, and normally that depressing effect
is offset when the transaction is closed and the short seller
"covers" his position by buying the asset in the open market.
Blanchard's allegation amounts to this: Does it become market
manipulation if that bet is bigger, or the duration of it longer? In
Barrick's case, the forward sales contracts could be open for up to
15 years. That means that if the price of gold climbs unexpectedly
above the forward price Barrick has locked in, the company can
simply sell current production straight into the spot market, while
pushing out into the future its obligation to deliver gold through
the forward contract.
Sound complicated? It is, and some sympathy should be extended to
the New Orleans judge charged with getting to the bottom of it.
But it's also part of a larger story that is emerging in capital
markets. As investors and market participants demand more scrutiny
and greater accountability, such sophisticated tools may have to
change. That could have a dampening effect on corporate profits, and
on markets over all. But if market participants don't make changes
themselves that make derivative instruments less opaque, you can bet
that, at some point, eager regulators will do it for them.
Amanda Lang is the host of AM Business on Report on Business
Television and CTV. She can be reached at <A
href="">alang@xxxxxxxxx-END-

And you wonder why Reg Howe was not allowed to plead his case in
Boston Federal Court:
American Legal System Is Corrupt Beyond Recognition, Judge Tells
Harvard Law School
By Geraldine HawkinsMarch 7, 2003
The American legal system has been corrupted almost beyond
recognition, Judge Edith Jones of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the
Fifth Circuit, told the Federalist Society of Harvard Law School on
February 28.She said that the question of what is morally right
is routinely sacrificed to what is politically expedient. The change
has come because legal philosophy has descended to nihilism."The
integrity of law, its religious roots, its transcendent quality are
disappearing. I saw the movie 'Chicago' with Richard Gere the other
day. That's the way the public thinks about lawyers," she told the
students.
<A
href="">http://www.massnews.com/2003_Editions/3_March/030703_mn_american_legal_system_corrupt.shtml
The commentary about gold in Europe is completely different than
in the US:
3/9Dear Bill,Just a few minutes ago, 10:45 PM EST, on
Bloomberg television, Juerg Kierner, the CIO of Swiss Asia Capital,
was being interviewed. The topic was gold prices. He predicted that
gold was going to exceed $450/oz this year. The main reasons given
were 1) the weaker dollar 2) Asian countries not keeping dollars but
buying gold instead 3) the reduction in forward selling (hedging) by
gold mining companies. His three gold picks are Harmony, Gold Fields
and Agnico Eagle Mines.The word is getting out! Go
GATA!Chaz
On silver:Hello Bill,
It's Monday morning in Ontario, March Break time, the
continuation of the winter that won't quit with a morning temp at
about 4 above zero F. And the winter in POS markets is also
continuing unabated. My brother and I were discussing this latter
point just yesterday, and given that we physical silver bugs are now
have a fully committed physical in position to the direction of this
market, we think we know what is going on. His position on this, and
I agree: the recent spike in silver lease rates, as compared to
gold, is where this market really is, not the paper one. The paper
market has all the ear marks of a dead one. The POS is bouncing off
the bottom of the CAD inflation line (or even going below, on
occasion) and it is this fact that screams the strength of the
manipulation. Silver isn't going lower (look at this past week as it
bounced along and ignored gold's trouncing) because below its
present price it is so ridiculously cheap that even as the lousy
hedge that it represents it finds strong buying BECAUSE it is below
the inflation line. "They" simply can't get silver lower, even the
paper kind. ALL of this just underlines the fact (not speculation)
that the paper market must collapse before this bull is set free.
Although I tire now of predicting when, am always wrong, the recent
Ted Butler piece does infer that this time will be around November
of this year. Silver IS STILL AT ALL TIME LOWS! and is barely, just
barely moving along at this bottom as the USD declines. Another way
of looking at this: with the fall of the USD and the rise of the
CAD, we have actually lost 10% on our last major purchase and silver
should really be well above $5 USD say about $5.15USD to reflect its
true 'value' in terms of its currency comparison.
FWIW. Best regards, Galearis
The Bullion Desk, Kitco and Comex silver price was all over the
place. Have to see where it sorts out tomorrow. Silver remains in
explosive mode!
GATA’s Mike Bolser: Will Gold Rise with the War? Date:
3/9/2003 12:21:07 PM Central Standard Time
Hi Bill:There's no telling. Here's a tactical snapshot:
There really hasn't been a noticeable retracing of the gold price
greater than $20 per ounce since it began to rise in April 2001.
Only a level off and choppy phase from last May until December 5th
where the gold price then rose in a smooth, tight, linear trace to
$369 and then oddly stayed very flat for six days. Then the rapid
spike to $388 and resultant speculative blow-off and fall to where
it is now, steady at ‰ $353.
That $33 dollar fall from $388 to $355 can't be counted as such
as I've previously mentioned. It's really a fall from the $369 level
or a drop of about $16 per ounce. And we are now holding at $353 to
$355 with repeated attempts to go higher that are met with sharp and
quick cartel selling blows added to its normally required background
gold dumping.
The established propaganda has things following the pattern of
the 1991 Gulf War. Oil falling and gold falling as the war starts.
This odd financial condition was counter-intuitive then and is more
so today given the drastic fall in inventories of petroleum [27 year
low] and central bank gold [About half].
In the last few days, however, there has been a smidgen of doubt
cast in published stories about the likelihood of a DOW war rise.
The 7700 level has been recently supported by coupon passes and a
huge 1.3 billion Open Market Operation of permanent funding. This
was brought to our attention by an astute member who pointed out
that these Fed permanent injections are nine times more potent than
temporary operations in that they are free of expiration risk. One
can only imagine how large the Fed support will have to be to
catalyze another significant DOW "Rally".
This week will see more war fog than ever and we may catch a
glimpse of any additional conditioning propaganda that suggests that
the DOW won't shoot up. Last week we had the S&P gold fund
"Volatility" warning...I must have missed their telcom warning
:-)
Could there be yet another bid to bash gold? There's no
telling... except that it would cost the cartel even more lost
central bank gold at a time when the dollar is rapidly headed South,
the Euro is flying, oil is over $37 with no supply relief in sight,
the general economy withering and the threat of divisive
broad-based, world-wide war opposition BEFORE the shooting
starts.
What would another $20 down gain the gold cartel? Some more
bullion bank short covering at $340? Permanently shake out the longs
who have already been shaken out by the Feb 5th COMEX margin trick?
A few more points down on the already technically over-sold HUI and
XAU?
Gold investors won't be so easily beaten down this time. The
fundamentals are too dire, the negative real interest rates too
pervasive on both sides of the Atlantic for any gold cartel action
to have lasting effect...although it could happen.
Logically, the cartel needs to conserve their remaining gold.
That is done by enacting an upwards glide path punctuated by
occasional raids, like the one on Feb5th. It saved them a bundle of
bullion in that the COMEX action was regulatory in nature and
triggered a self-feeding capitulation. The cartel gained valuable
time and distance [$16-20 per ounce] with that action. Classic
military retreat tactics. We'll see.
Best, Mike
More from Mike today:Hi Bill:With the DOW down 100+ this
AM we see a continuation of the pattern of laissez-faire from the
Fed's Temporary Open Market Operations [OMOs]. Only $4.25 Billion in
over night repos today.Are they placing too much salvation
hope on a huge bolus of repos to save the day? Will the world accept
a rejoicing Wall Street as the bombs fall in Baghdad?More
and more commentators are lamenting the tardy war start
[Krauthammer] even as Mexico, Russia and numerous others defy the US
at the UN, BTW the Mexicans export 1.5 million bbls per day to the
US. Could there be a divisive fight over oil going on behind the
scenes? Mexico also exports huge tonnages of silver to the US.
Hmmmm.There may be a universe of unseen wrangling behind the
dollar's continued fall and the Euro's rapid rise. Gold is being
carried up in the process.Best, Mike

Dave Lewis, "oops"
Bill; I busted my ankle up pretty good this morning playing
hoops so I won't be writing that much for a few days. Here's a piece
I did this weekend for today.
Games within games, strategies within strategies, the politics of
man in all their sophistication are rarely on such naked display as
at the end of a "belle époque". I use the French not to signify my
support for their view ( I support a return to a Gold standard, not
a Euro standard) but to evoke thoughts of a possible useful model
for current events, the period leading up to the First World War.
Many economists have expressed the view that this is not a typical
post WWII recession and I would agree in the sense that few
economically significant nations are willing to bear the pain, in
political control terms, of adjustment, necessary for economic
recovery. Such was also the case early in the 20th century as many
of the empires at that time had, at least in the view of their heads
of state, crossed the line long ago, quite possibly in ignorance,
where economic adjustment would be just as disturbing as moving
ahead into a clash.

How did we arrive at this pass. Perhaps the Sage of Omaha can
provide some insight. In his annual letter to investors, among other
topics, Warren Buffett writes of the behavior of corporate boards
and the need for change. He also, in my view, describes one impetus
which has driven current events; "Too often I was silent when
management made proposals that I judged to be counter to the
interests of shareholders. In those cases, collegiality trumped
independence." Thinking back just 3 years ago today, when the Nasdaq
made its all time high, few were willing to publicly proclaim that
this would end badly, particularly among those who were benefiting
from its advance. The benefits of "staying on message" were clear,
the earlier warnings had been ignored with impunity, Buffett himself
was considered "old hat". It is only with the benefit of hindsight
that most could accept the degree of "excess" then in the price. Who
knows what other "excesses" will become obvious in a few years time.

regards
Dave Lewis<A
href="">http://www.chaos-onomics.com
I received more emails and phone calls about "the gold shares"
TODAY than during the last six months combined. That will give you
some idea of the angst out there in gold share land. Here is a
sample:
Subj: Pathetic?
It's not just pathetic it's verging on the ridiculous - POG is
still wagering a war against the US Dollar, while the PM shares
retreated to lows, not seen since last fall and in some cases
worse.

The enormous short positions recently created in the stocks of
the PM Compound of late have wreaked havoc among the small
investors. In some cases the shorts may even be of a size, which may
be above the total share capital. And still, some people wonder how
that's possible. It is possible, illegally, though, and against the
rules and regulations of any market overseers.
No wonder some want the DTC-System abolished and some NASD-OB
companies want to renege on this obnoxious system.
You could shine your torch into that system and shed some light
on the problem with the help of your GATA army.
Getting really frustrated, though holding the fort ...
With what new nightmares will the PTB come up in their desperate
future?
Best FRR
Bill,I don't scare/panic easy, but today is almost enough for
me to throw in the towel and sell my gold shares and buy more
physical gold. I KNOW gold will go up, but this day after day where
the gold shares continue to trade separate from gold is making me
wonder if the shares will go up with gold.. ;-) I am not in
leveraged shares but some really stable ones like Harmony, Goldcorp,
and Gold Fields. I am in for the long run, but my patience is
wearing thin. Amazing, gold up $4 and shares down, XAU -2.3, HUI -5.
Amazing.Good luck, and I will keep the faith.EM
I agree with Australia’s Laurie McGuirk who sent out a gold stock
alert after the close:
gold and silver stocks hammered across the spectrum today in US
and Canada, yet gold went up a few bucks and silver was
unchanged...go figure. made a few calls around and no one really has
a clue....reminiscent of July..... this is an opportunity to
load up within 10% of the bottom .... the dow looks like yesterdays
breakfast, Fannie Mae finally rolled over some today with lots more
to come there...they are a disaster..... hmmmm.... gold stocks down
in this environment??? they are trading lower than when gold was
$300 ..... enjoy, but make sure you pick the right
ones.LM
Platinum closed at $709 bid. That’s a 22-year high. It is a
prelude to what is coming for gold.
The NIKKEI closed at 20-year lows, a prelude to what is coming in
the US stock markets. We might not be that bad, but the DOW could
surely break 4,000. The DOG could take out 750. The European markets
continue to be hit very hard. They closed on their lows today, as
did the DOW (7568, down 172) and the DOG (1278, down 27). The
Transportation Index continues to be bombed, finishing the day in
52-week new low ground at 1982, down 60.
The whisper is finally going around that maybe the stock market
won’t soar as expected when the war starts because the economy is
stinking up the place. WELL HELLO! Bout time the wake up call is
going out to investors. Where have CNBC and Wall Street been these
past weeks and months? No surprises to Café members ANYWHERE!!
Oh, I know the answer. They have been listening to the likes of
Diane Swonk, Bank One’s wonk. She has been bullish on the US economy
and the stock market for three to four years. She is as wrong as can
be, yet CNBC keeps trotting her out there to cheerlead their
viewers. There is a reason MIDAS is giving her a big
raspberry. About four years ago, Frank Veneroso was invited to a
prestigious think tank to give his views on the US economy and our
markets. Frank was VERY bearish on both. When they heard what his
presentation was going to be about, he was cancelled. Swonk was
brought in as his replacement because she was so bullish. No wonder
the public is losing its hard-earned investment money.
For the NERVOUS NELLIE gold shareholders out there in CAFÉ land,
MIDAS wrote three to four years ago how the US stock market was
going to tank. MIDAS said the gold market was going to soar when you
could not find a serious bull in the mainstream gold world. That was
when gold was $255 to $295. It went to $388 before The Gold Cartel
called in reinforcements. That was only rear guard action. Gold
should make new highs in the near future. The gold shares? A move of
epic proportions is coming!!!!!!!
Keep the Faith
MIDAS
PSFor newer Café members especially, check my MIDAS
comments out of yesteryear via the search function set up by my
invaluable webmaster, Mike Cunningham. It is located at the bottom
of Le Menu. The instructions are self-explanatory.

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March 7 - Gold $350.10, down $5.90 - Silver $4.65 up
1 cent
PATHETIC!
"The industrial condition of the United States is perfectly
sound... nothing can arrest the upward movement" Charles E.
Mitchell, president of the National City Bank, October 14, 1929
My blood pressure was spared from soaring too much today. I am in
Phoenix, Arizona to watch my niece play as the number one singles
player for her Sonoma College team (California) against a couple of
local colleges, including Grand Canyon.
I caught the horrendous employment/inflation numbers this
morning, which were extraordinarily bullish for gold and about as
bearish for the stock market as it gets. The stock futures, already
reeling from continued weak overseas markets, and a bleakening
profits picture (Intel, etc.), were hit really hard, but gold could
only make fractional gains. After yesterday’s technical
breakthrough, gold should have popped $10. When it didn’t, I
thought, “uh-oh, The Gold Cartel is getting ready to do their thing
again.”
Gold was still up on the day when I received an email from Thom
Calandra of www.CBSMarketWatch.com, who had a question for me. I
vented my thoughts to him:
THOM CALANDRA'S STOCKWATCH
Market's an inferno, and then you ...Inflation, the falling
market and a Buffett bombshell
By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.comLast Update: 12:00 PM ET
March 7, 2003
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Abandon all hope of portfolio
redemption, you who pass through this gate.
Investors, instead of curling up inside their highly mortgaged
cocoons, are registering alarm at the incessant declines of their
holdings. They appear to be heeding, albeit slowly, the warnings of
solid researchers such as Barry B. Bannister at Legg Mason Wood
Walker. Bannister, embarking on a series of reports on the outlook
for inflation the next 12 years, says simply, "We do not see a
sustained change in direction that consistently favors equities
until around 2015."
Bannister, a capital goods analyst, gets little attention from
Wall Street. Yet his research, and his conviction, are compelling.
Debt in all sectors of America's economy, when measured against
gross domestic product, is about where it was in 1933, just before
the United States began a 20-year process of cheapening its dollar
assets and thus "reflating" its economy.
The so-called "multiple" of debt to economic output is near a
factor of three. Meaning this is one very lopsided teeter-totter.
For more, and a Watch List of defensive investments, see The
Calandra Report.
At the heart of sensible researchers such as Bannister is the
belief that an accelerated pace of inflation, and America's $30-plus
trillion of debt floating around the globe, will sink stocks and
most bonds and other paper assets. Not the coming war in Iraq. Not
terrorism, politics or sightings of hostile globs from outer space.
At some point, says Bannister, $1 of new debt will have
absolutely no "incremental positive effect" on the American economy.
That point, says the former co-chief for U.S. equity research at SBC
Warburg, will come in the year 2014.
Bannister is Wall Street's worst nightmare. He's all about a
world where investors seek out safe-money strategies and hard assets
-- and sidestep anything that comes in the shape of a certificate or
broker confirmation.
In my view, the fringe, from its glass-tower messengers in the
investment business to ordinary folks on Main and Elm streets, will
move closer to center stage as we all get closer and closer to the
gates of H-E-L-P!
Bill Murphy, a volatile publisher of bullion facts and fancies,
is one of the best examples of that fringe. Murphy, as creator of
LeMetropole Café, reaches a paying audience numbered close to 4,000,
all of them bent on seeing the price of gold break away from the
mid-$350-an-ounce range and soar to its rightful place in the
stratosphere. (I believe it will.)
The publisher, who doubles as chairman of the Gold Antitrust
Action Committee, heads a team of hard-nosed researchers who
estimate a "gold derivatives neutron bomb" will soon explode,
liquidating the balance sheets of bullion lenders, among them,
asserts Murphy and his analysts, the New York City bank J.P. Morgan
Chase (JPM: news, chart, profile).
In the past 36 months, the rising price of gold has put 75
percentage points between itself and shares of J.P. Morgan Chase,
which trade on the New York Stock Exchange.
"A sharply rising gold price will most likely ignite J.P. Morgan
Chase's $26 trillion of derivatives into some kind of blow-up mode,"
Murphy tells me on the eve of the full Warren Buffett
state-of-the-union address, due from that insurance executive's
shareholders on Saturday. See: Buffett may own gold, say some.
Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A: news, chart, profile) Buffett this
week sounded like the Italian poet Dante Alighieri in painting the
world of derivatives as an inferno. The summary: Abandon all hope of
leaving, you who pass through the derivatives gates. "Let's see:
stocks overvalued and offering more risk than reward," observes
Robert Bishop, editor of 20-year-old Gold Mining Stock Report ."The
dollar in a confirmed major bear market. Derivative poster-child
gold rising. It's not exactly a great leap to conclude that Monday's
business sections may indeed be telling us of Berkshire Hathaway's
newfound exposure to that best known of contra-cyclical investments,
gold."
For his part, Murphy, the bullion fanatic who has been largely
correct about the direction of gold these past 18 months, tells me,
"Good grief. The news does not get any more gold bullish than the
employment news in America. Wages up 0.7 percent. Biggest jump in
something like 16 years. Employment falling off a cliff. Dollar
tanks. Yet, gold is held in check ... to a fractional move higher so
far," he told me Friday morning, as U.S. stock indexes set new lows
for the year.
Murphy has an audience with dollars and euros, yen and Australian
dollars to spend, mostly on gold-mining stocks and bullion-linked
investments. Besides his almost 4,000 subscribers, the publisher and
former commodities specialist has a mailing list of 7,000 or so
additional readers. Murphy and the researchers at the Gold Antitrust
Action Committee have long alleged the world's central banks and
bullion lenders are woefully short of the physical gold they need
should their customers demand delivery of the pawned metal.
There are, according to Murphy & Co.'s best estimate, gold
loans and swaps of around 15,000 tons, an annual supply/demand
deficit of 1,700 tons and mine supply at just 2,500 tons.
"According to the work of the GATA camp (strategists Frank
Veneroso and Reginald Howe), the central banks are short some 15,000
to 16,000 tons of gold," he says. "That is gold that has been lent
or swapped to the bullion banks. Much of this gold was lent, or
swapped, at sub-$300 gold. The bullion banks are on the hook to
return the gold to the central banks, should they call it back.
These loans are going underwater big time."
Murphy - and this will rankle some purists - says, "We are not
that much different from Warren Buffet, who recently warned on
excessive derivatives, calling them 'financial weapons of mass
destruction.'" See: Buffett ignites gold talk.
Speaking of Buffett, Andy Smith, the Mitsui Precious Metals
analyst who elaborated earlier this week - in this space -- on
Berkshire Hathaway's possible penchant for gold, is not willing to
bet the legendary investor will spill the gold beans in his annual
letter Saturday. Buffett and his partner Charles Munger in 1998 told
the world they had bought 4,000 tons of silver (82799W01: news,
chart, profile), a revelation resulting in a brief frenzy for that
metal.
Smith told me Friday from London, "I have a feeling the Berkshire
website may be humming. But as I hinted; the odds are no. Threshold
quite high. And the silver announcement came only after protracted
rumors."
Gold on Friday was getting its tail kicked, down $6 in the spot
market to $350 at noon New York time, even as the dollar continued
to slide against most major currencies.
The Calandra Report now published
The first issue of The Calandra Report, a new subscription
service, went out this week. The report is available for $159 a year
only to charter members who sign up now. This week's report includes
a Watch List of strategic investments and a round-up of global and
domestic outlooks. Here's how to sign up.
You can get delivery of Thom Calandra's StockWatch, which appears
intermittently. Sign up for Thom Calandra's StockWatch newsletter at
www.CBS MarketWatch.com.
-END-
For The Calandra Report go
to:http://cbs.marketwatch.com/commerce/store.asp?siteid=mktw
I spoke with Thom early, while gold was still a bit higher. Good
he got me then, before the pitiful Gold Cartel dropped gold $6. Who
knows what I would have come up with? Fortunately, I went off for an
enjoyable tennis match, which took my mind off the criminal cabal
gold bashing.
The most are important aspects of the economic news released this
morning:
Washington, March 7 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. lost 308,000 jobs
last month, the most since the aftermath of the 2001 terrorist
attacks, as the prospect of war with Iraq restrained the economy and
prompted manufacturers, retailers and builders to cut costs.
The unemployment rate rose to 5.8 percent from 5.7 percent in
January, nearing an eight-year high, and hours worked fell, the
Labor Department said. The plunge in payrolls was the most since
November 2001 and was four times the lowest prediction in a
Bloomberg News economist poll. Seven of the nine major industries
tracked by the government shed workers…
The report ``was frighteningly weak, thereby raising the
possibility of a double-dip recession,'' said David Rosenberg, chief
North American economist for Merrill Lynch & Co. He put odds of
a recession at about 50 percent.
Job creation is at the heart of household spending, which
accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, and 366,000
positions have been eliminated in the last six months. U.S….
The Labor Department also said the percentage of the U.S.
population holding jobs held at 63.2 percent in February. The number
of discouraged workers, those no longer looking for work because
they thought no jobs would be available and who therefore weren't
counted as unemployed, rose to 450,000 last month compared with
375,000 in February 2002. The number of discouraged workers isn't
adjusted for seasonal factors.
A bright spot in today's report showed rising incomes. Workers'
average hourly earnings rose 0.7 percent, or 11 cents, in February,
after a 0.1 percent decrease the previous month.
-END-
Thus, we have a dismal and worsening employment picture in the US
with wage inflation starting to skyrocket. Wages rose at their
fastest pace in close to 16 years. US interest rates are going
negative to the extreme. It could not be more bullish for gold.
I know it, you know it and The Working Group on Financial Markets
knew it in advance of the release. They were lying in wait to pounce
on gold once they sucked in early buyers. As is, gold closed $4 off
its lows.
This may well be the most blatant example of market manipulation
I have witnessed over during my four years at GATA’s helm:
*Right as the stock market was about to collapse, rumors were
spread to the financial community that Osama Bin Laden's sons, or
grandmothers, were captured. That was the sign that the Working
Group on Financial Markets was coming in to buy up the futures. One
has to wonder if the US Government is going to own half of our stock
market? Once the stock market rallied, the rumor was denied. Story
plant anyone?
*The dollar, already weak, was hit hard on the US employment
news, but still managed a modest rally the rest of the day as the
gold crooks when into action. The dollar closed at 98.07, down
another .30 and the euro finished the day up another .41 at $110.10.
The dollar is tanking to a significant degree and gold is going
nowhere, courtesy of the corrupt Gold Cartel.
*Did oil collapse? Heck no. It is roared higher, climbing another
.78 to $37.78.
*The goons couldn’t even keep silver down, as it rallied nine
cents off its low to finish slightly up on the day.
*Once again, a miraculous recovery by the DOW and S&P. The
DOW closed at 7740, up .66, while the DOG rose two to 1305. One
doesn’t see these continuous stock market recoveries like this in
any other world stock market. Of course not, they do not have a
Working Group on Financial Markets. George Orwell would be very
proud of Big Brother. Sadly, the bullion-banking, Wall Street and
political power group in Washington is taking America right down the
toilet. They make Enron, WorldCom and Global Crossing look like
pikers. What a disgrace! These shenanigans are going to end very
badly for the American people.
The John Brimelow Report
Friday March 7, 2003
Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $3.72, PM $5.22 with world gold at
$355.80 and $356.75. Above legal import point. The Indian gold trade
appears to be sorting itself out after last Friday’s duty cut. Gold
in the $350s seems to invite import demand.
TOCOM superficially had a very quiet day, either mesmerized by
the tense geopolitical situation, or possibly by the near-panic
conditions in the Japanese stock market, which fell 2.69% to a 20
year low, the third successive week of decline, and the biggest
daily drop since last October’s slide. On low volume equal to 19,874
Comex lots (4.2% down on yesterday) the active contract nudged up 3
yen, which translated into 80c drop in $US gold. However, open
interest rose the equivalent of 2,117 lots (quite a bit considering
the low volume – perhaps a non-exchange seller?). The possibility of
portfolio rebalancing in Japan effecting gold continues to be
interesting. (In NY yesterday gold traded 31,370 contracts; open
interest rose 957 lots.)
In this connection, my old friend Martin Pring in his “Weekly
Intermarket Update” written yesterday, envisaged the Tokyo stock
market ride getting even rougher:
“The Nikkei is sandwiched between two critical trendlines at 8725
and 8250. Whichever way it breaks will likely signal the direction
of the next major move. The odds at this point favor a downside
resolution….if the Index itself confirms with a new daily closing
low of 8250 then a destructive breakdown will have taken
place…Usually, destructive breakdowns
are followed by sharp declines…”
Today the index closed at 8114. If gold can be helped by alarmed
and disgusted Japanese, they would seem likely to be in good supply.
See http://www.pring.com/weeklychart1.htm.
Today in New York, of course, can only be described as a
Conspiracy Theorist’s dream. Iraq, Japan, Dollar reeling to 4 year
lows, Intel numbers distressing analysts, and KA-BOOM! Bin Ladin is
captured – or his sons are captured (2 out of 23!) – or maybe they
aren’t – and the stock market, the dollar, and, naturally, gold, go
into abrupt reverse. (Estimated volume between 9 & 10 AM half
all of yesterdays.) On an overwrought day like this, it was
enlightening to consider Bridgewater Associates “Daily
Observations”, easily their most negative of the year:
“This should not be happening:”
“Recent economic numbers are starting to paint a picture that
diverges from script. It is too early to say that the economy is
truly diverging, but the straws in the wind are troubling…we should
be seeing the acceleration…Instead, when we look across the earliest
reported stats for January and February, stats that are both
reported earliest and tend to lead, we see an emerging pattern of
decline….Recent readings project a double-dip in growth. This should
not be happening.”
“Up until now, the stock market has indicated a more…problematic
economic environment than any that we have experienced since the
Great Depression….Now we are seeing early signs of actual economic
conditions diverging from the norm at just the time that they should
be accelerating higher”.
The issue is, can rumors solve this problem?
Clearly, the gold equities were not wrong in sensing the $355-60
area will be defended.
JB
Europe and The Gold Cartel:
Dear Bill,
“Joke Market”
I have been a gold investor since June last year and I have read
your site and other gold sites for the last six months. The market
action today proves to me without a shadow of a doubt that U.S.
financial markets are rigged, not that I doubted you and your
colleagues. I work in the financial markets in London and I watch
the currencies, including gold, bonds and stocks very closely. After
the jobs data today the index futures collapsed, the euro rallied to
$1.1060 and gold traded up to $358 and then at 9:30 nyt gold just
dropped like a stone. I asked one of my contacts in New York who was
selling the April Gold contract and was told that JPM Chase sold a
few hundred contracts through the bid price which triggered further
stops to the downside. It seems that every time I ask who has been
doing the selling it is either Morgan Stanley or JPM Chase!
I am sure today's market action made a great deal of gold
investors sick or even despondent, but I think the Cabal will not be
able to keep this game up forever! In the end of the day, the free
market always triumphs.
Have a good week end,Mario
From our “goldbuck”:
HelloDidier (France) and gata supporter !
once again, they are capping the gold market ! they are using B52
Gold bomber with the ESF !
this cartel must be destroyed, and i hope it will be soon !
STOP WITH THE GOLD LIE, IT'S ENOUGH NOW !
go gold and gata !Best regards !Didier
Keuleneer Storme Vanneste Van Varenbergh VerhelstDear
Sir,I have been an interested MetropoleCafe member/reader for
some time now.I was wondering whether you could provide me with
the names and contactdetails of GATA-contacts in
Belgium.Thank you in advance,Fernand
Keuleneerfernand.keuleneer@xxxxxxx
From GATA’s Mike Bolser:
Hi Bill:The Fed repo pool totals keep falling ahead of the
looming Iraq war. Thus, the DOW is losing the pool funding that
normally flows into futures as the primary vehicle for the Plunge
Protection Team's market interventions.
The hypothesis of a massive ramp up in Fed repurchase agreement
issuance is intact as they are allowing the pool to "Dry up" before
a flood as the shooting starts. Will the average investor return to
the market if the repos flow and the DOW pops? Some hopers
will...only to get smashed when the brokerage houses sell into the
false DOW "War rally".
Gold was hit just before the PM Fix today keeping it basically
flat since the Feb 5th margin surprise. As the Major Currency Dollar
Index keeps falling, the DIVG isn't really falling. So, except for
the Euro price of gold, things are static.
The conspicuous, rapid rise in Euro Index and fall in Euro gold
price is a dangerous game of financial chicken for the gold cartel.
They are saying "Look here!" "The gold cartel has gold on deep
discount sale in Euros!". The war-jittery investors on the Continent
may just respond and make a move to physical.
The PM Fix drop today also validates that the metric we've been
tracking is the right gauge since the deed was done just prior to
the Fix. Interest Rate/Gold derivatives contracts in my possession
from JPMorgan also identify the PM Fix as their preferred marker.
The facts are that Fed repo management is biased towards a DOW
pump as the war starts and that gold in dollars has been held steady
since Feb 5th. Will the cartel bash gold as the war starts? It would
be a huge invitation to the Middle East to increase their holdings
not to mention the Chinese. The possible opportunistic adventures of
the North Koreans only adds fuel to the fire of uncertainty that
could engulf gold.
A gold cartel strategy that throws even more metal on the fire
could happen, especially if the Fed is in a full-blown derivatives
panic and has sold even more gold than we estimated, but it seems
more likely that the war will be used as an excuse to let gold slip
quietly higher so that the cartel can live to fight another day.
Best, Mike
More from Mike:
Hi Bill:No need to get toooo worked up because the Cartel's
manipulation pattern is that obvious. There cannot be a person left
that doesn't see it.
My task is to discern the next real move by the cartel. War? Here
are their options:
** Release gold and profit from the long six-month share
decline** Stay flat at $355 and crow about the "New Paradigm" in
gold not rising during war.** Drive it down further with more
massive cb selling.
Of the three possibilities, the last is the least likely unless
the cartel has decided to dump ALL the rest of their gold. The
second is possible but that ignores the still falling dollar and the
first is also possible but we have to explain why the Euro has
created such a huge discount to gold.
The PM Fix is still flat since Feb 5th and that phase is intact.
The war is the natural break point...but is it up or down?
Down is too expensive for the gold cartel. The standard pattern
for the COMEX gold commercials is to get everyone wrong footed.
Well...everybody in gold share land IS wrong footed today so THAT
spells UP to me.
It's clear from today's HUI position that profits cannot be made
as easily going down as they can be made going up.
Best, Mike
James Sinclair:
http://www.jsmineset.com/s/Home.asp
TECHNICAL REVIEW Desperation on the Short Side
March 7, 2003
There is no question that after gold reached $359 this morning, a
natural place for a temporary reaction that I pointed out to you,
the drive down to $348 was at the hand of our dear friends, the gold
cartel - and it was quite telling.
That was not a sign of gold's weakness but rather to professional
trader's confirmation of shear fear on the part of the major
commercial short sellers. COT (Commitment of Traders), since it is
heavy on the bear side among the commercials, a.k.a. the gold cartel
of common interest, should be renamed TW-COT (Terrified Weak
Commitment of Traders).
Two Down- Ninety nine to go!
The reason given for the drive down was the capture of two of the
sons of Bin Laden in Afghanistan. Wow, if anything meant nothing
that has to be it. Has anybody out there ever heard of how many sons
he has? It is in that tradition an honor to die and the sacrifice of
all of one's sons is considered laudable. No, that was an
opportunity for the shorts to attempt to destroy the reverse head
and shoulders formation.
I am beginning to believe that more than the faithful read my
thoughts faithfully.
Conclusion:
The reverse head and shoulders will rebuild and complete and bury
TW-COT. By the way it was me you ran into at the low today. Now you
have gotten my competitive spirits up. In the last go around I
bought 22,000 long from you. This time it may have to be orders of
magnitude greater than that.
But hear me, JPM, ML, SB & GS, I am going to bury you at your
own game. You cannot scare me because I am better at this than you
are. Money means nothing whatsoever to me. It is the game that
counts, so now the opposition to your fraudulent derivatives has
taken on a new life - mine. Get ready to see $400 at your back.
-END-
The news is not good in Germany either:
“German unemployment rose to a 4-year of 11.3% in February, which
in near the record 11.6% recorded in 2/99. France is also beset with
ugly economic news. Consumer confidence is plunging as layoffs
surge.”
Dave Lewis on ”The Black Hole of Calcutta”
Bill;News on the economic front today was dismal. The decline
in payrolls and jump in wages does not bode well for those betting
on cheaper Gold. Over the past 40 years, when y/y growth in wages is
higher than the Fed Funds rate, Gold surges. It is worth noting that
the current uptrend in Gold began at roughly the same time as the
Fed Funds dropped under y/y wage growth in Jun 2001. With payrolls
declining the Fed has little chance of tightening in the near
future. Absent a quick victory in Iraq which cuts the price of Oil
in half, current efforts to keep a lid on the Gold price are doomed
to failure. As a former President Bush once said, "stay the course."

While listening to President Bush's press conference last night,
my mind drifted to the tale of The Black Hole of Calcutta. When the
British first arrived in India, or rather I should write, when the
British East India company first arrived in India, their intent was
commercial profit. Initially rebuffed by the ruling Mughals, years
of perseverance paid off with bases established first in Surat and
later in Madras and Calcutta. In 1756, months after ascending to the
throne of the Nawab, Siraj-ud-daulah, fearful of growing
fortifications at Calcutta, attacked and captured the city. He then
reportedly imprisoned 146 men in a tiny prison from which only 23
men emerged. I write reportedly because this tale comes from a
British best seller of the time "The Black Hole of Calcutta" written
by one of the survivors, John Zephaniah Holwell. With this tale on
the public mind of the British back home, the Indians were easily
cast as less than human barbarians. The next year, at the "Battle"
of Plessey, Robert Clive of the East India company defeated the
Nawab by bribing his second in command. Thus did the East India
Company morph from a commercial enterprise into an arm of the
British Empire. No longer did they simply trade with the Indians,
they ruled them, and a few years later began to tax them. In 1769-70
a famine struck the destitute nation and reports claim nearly a
third of the population was wiped out.
It is with a heavy heart that I watch the news these days, hoping
that we are not on the well worn path of Empire.
Regards
Dave Lewishttp://www.chaos-onomics.com
The cabal’s obvious and continuous gold bashing is demoralizing
gold share owners. Surely, they are contributing to that
demoralization by pounding the shares themselves. The XAU fell 2.30
to 67.44 and HUI dropped to 125.54, down 3.06.
The best I can say for The Gold Cartel is they are pathetic. The
damage they are perpetuating on America could last a good part of a
generation. The cabal forces are manipulating gold and the stock
market (maybe all the financial markets) until they get their
economic war started. They are hoping gold will tank after their war
starts and the US stock market will soar, as in 1991. Sure, they may
get some knee-jerk reactions of that order, but they are doing their
business in some state of illusion. I suspect most of the investment
world is waiting to buy gold and sell an incredibly overvalued stock
market.
The importance of gold taking out $360 is glaringly apparent.
When it does, look out above!
Meanwhile, Keep The Faith Café members. Truth will win
out. The gold truth is that its price is going dramatically higher,
regardless of the nefarious doings of The Gold Cartel.
MIDAS

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March 6 - Gold $356 up $3.40 - Silver $4.65 up 4 cents
Gold Finally Closes Above $355<FONT face="Comic Sans MS"
color=#008080>
"Fall seven times. Stand up eight." <FONT
face="Comic Sans MS" color=#008080 size=2>—<FONT
face="Comic Sans MS" color=#008080> Japanese Proverb
It was a Battle Royale all day on the Comex. Gold would approach
the $355 area and The Gold Cartel would knock it down. Up, down, up,
down. Finally, late in the session, Gold snuck up to $355 and the
big selling was not there. Some stops were touched off and gold
popped higher. Today’s action was significant, but to win the battle
definitively, gold must take out $360. That would clear the way for
a move to the $415 area.
Gold remains in "explosive mode" as the fundamentals improve
daily. The reasons why have been mentioned recently and some are
mentioned throughout the MIDAS. The Gold Cartel seems as desperate
to keep the gold price from rising as the Bush Administration is
hell-bent on going to WAR, defying most of the world. This is only
my opinion, but the two seem intertwined at this now.
The bullion-banking money powers rigged the gold price for the
last seven or more years during Democrat and Republican
Administrations. The price rigging went on steroids under Robert
Rubin’s strong dollar policy. A stock market bubble was
created. This bubble led to many other financial market dislocations
and other bubbles, which are now bursting like the stock market. The
US economy and financial markets are in deep trouble, the worst
since 1929. Bush needs his war to take American's minds off the
coming financial market devastation. He needs much cheaper oil as a
way to try to bail out the economy during this future debacle.
The Gold Cartel, including the Bush’s ESF, is frantically
flooding the market with US gold to keep gold from setting off
GATA’s gold derivatives neutron bomb, or as Warren Buffet puts it,
"financial weapons of mass destruction." A sharply rising gold price
will most likely ignite JP Morgan Chase’s 26 trillion of derivatives
into some kind of blow up mode. That point might have to do with
financial market conditions, as well as the price of gold
itself.
We already know for sure that several gold producers are in deep
trouble because of their hedge books. Morgan is a counterparty to
most of the big hedgers. Will Newmont give their Yandal project back
to Morgan? Morgan has big problems.
I could go on and on. The Gold Cartel is hurting, or will be
badly, if gold goes much higher again. The dilemma for them is what
you already know via MIDAS commentary. The physical market is
booming and eating their lunch. There is only so much the ESF can do
if gold demand continues to surge. I suspect it is not getting much
help from the Europeans these days (even if former cabal
supporters), considering the profound differences of opinion on how
to deal with Iraq.
It might even be worse than that. GATA warned the Speaker of the
House and certain members of Congress that the US was subject to
financial market blackmail because of the massive short positions in
the gold market. We explained that all certain foreign powers would
have to do was wait for the right moment and buy up the available
gold. Our major bullion banks teeter on the brink of destruction or
could topple overnight. It could set off significant financial
market repercussions for the US and the dollar. Likely buyers:
Russia, China, Germany (who needs to get its lent gold back),
Turkey, Iran, the Arab countries, India, Korea. There are probably
more, but you get the picture. It is not a pretty one for The Gold
Cartel and its supporters.
Most of the gold shareholders and pundits expect gold to tank
when the war starts. As I have oft said, an enormous amount of the
central banks' gold has left their coffers since 1991. Half of the
central banks' gold is now gone. What if many of the potential
buyers above are waiting in the wings to buy up the gold market, if
the arrogant US defies the world and goes to war against Iraq,
virtually on its own?
Gold has been moving in a very tight, volatile range. A higher
opening tomorrow could break it out of a triangle formation and up
through the critical $360 area.
Silver’s $355 is $4.65. It rises above that point and the silver
police take silver right back down on the close. No gaps in silver.
That is constructive. Same comment from me: silver remains explosive
too. One day it will really surprise the investment world by moving
$1 higher in one week alone. The move will come out of nowhere. You
don't want to be short that market.
The John Brimelow Report
Thursday March 6 2003
Indian ex-duty premiums: $10.60 and $11.52, with world gold at
$354 and $352.50. Well above legal import point: in fact, rather
high. The Indian newspaper "The Economic Times" reports today that
supplies of the "metric" bars favored in last Friday’s duty
reductions are now being offered locally, so perhaps these premiums
will revert to normal. The Indian rupee hit an 18 month high today.

TOCOM opened confused to find gold, so lively at the previous
day’s close, knocked completely of the boil by New York. On sharply
lower volume equal to only 20,753 Comex lots (down 44.3% from
yesterday) the active contract drifted to close down 4 yen, the
firmer yen causing $US gold to edge up $1.40. Open interest did rise
another 1,525 Comex equivalent, continuing the pattern of steady
accumulation. NY volume was estimated yesterday at 40,000)
"Given recent euro strength, it appears gold should be doing
better."
Grumbled Refco last night, no doubt irritated by the limited
return to the courage showed in initiating a new long yesterday.

"Gold started the day on a very strong note as a cocktail of
soaring energy prices, a weaker dollar, falling equity markets and
worsening geo-political tensions…with dealers eyeing the 40 day
moving average at $358.25. However…the market eased back down to
$354.50 at the AM Fix in London, which was followed by some
aggressive post-fix selling… The market steadied after the New York
opening …back above $356, however more selling prior to, and at the
PM Fix (official sales?) saw the benchmark set at $353.95."
candidly reports Standard London. In other words the plentiful
selling reported at the end of last week and Monday re appeared as
gold seemed to be gathering momentum.
"Expect further selling from today’s high ($356.10) to the Asian
high of 357.25/357.75 over the coming sessions."
Warns Scotia Mocatta, possibly advisedly. So far the skepticism
the gold shares have been showing about further advances in gold
being permitted appears to have reason.
Holding the c. $355 barrier area may well prove difficult,
however. Unless prices rise, India seems poised to do some serious
buying, and evidence of other, Middle Eastern, gold hunger continues
to appear. TheBullionDesk carries a story from Iran today that
"Iran’s central bank has introduced measures designed to bring
down soaring gold prices, including easing procedures for the import
of gold and silver bullion, local media reports indicate."
(see <A
href="">http://www.mmorning.com/article.asp?Article=5044&CategoryID=6
)
Holding gold down at this level in these circumstances is likely
to be expensive.
JB
CARTEL CAPIULATION WATCH
The stock markets continue to sink lower and lower. Even propping
up efforts in the US by The Working Group on Financial Markets is
failing. The DOW closed at 7673, down 101 and the DOG finished at
1302, down 11. Why would anyone want to have much exposure in these
two indexes when the BIG hope is a quick war? Seems nuts. Then
what?JP Morgan Chase is back at $22 per share, down 80 cents on
the day.

Oil is back above $37 per barrel. Word is Saudi Arabia cannot
produce as much oil as previously thought if there are disruptions
due to the coming Iraq war.
The economic news this morning was hot, heavy and market moving.
The big bummer:
Washington, March 6 (Bloomberg) -- The number of U.S. workers
filing new claims for state unemployment benefits last week rose to
the highest this year as the economy faltered and companies fired
more workers. States received 430,000 applications for jobless
aid in the week ended Saturday, the Labor Department said. That
followed 418,000 the prior week. The less volatile four-week moving
average of claims rose to 408,750, the most since December's final
week. –END-
Prior to that news, the Swiss cut interest rats, which again, is
very gold friendly. This email from a Swiss Café member puts it all
in perspective:
Bill These measures appear to have been timed to support the
$ and stop the Euro from going thru the 1.10 level to the Euro.
Gold was sold off 2.00 from 355,65 to 353,85 within an hour of
this nr. It remains to be seen whether they can hold gold down
much longer. Note the effort to avoid negative sfr interest
rates in my highlights below. This IMHO suggests the authorities
are getting a bit closer to running out of ammo in their currency
manipulation efforts. Best Al<FONT
face=Arial>
SNB rate cut signals readiness to act over strength of Swiss
franc - analysts<FONT face=Arial
color=#808080 size=1>06.03.2003 15:40:40, EuropeFokus
(AEF) ZURICH
(AFX) - The Swiss National Bank's surprise decision to cut its Libor
target range by 50 basis points to 0-0.75 pct signals the central
bank's intention to tackle the detrimental effects of the current
strength of the Swissfranc, analysts said. The decision
came just moments after the European Central Bank had decided to cut
its key interest rates by 25 basis points. "Although
the effect on the Swiss franc is currently rather limited, it
clearly signals the SNB's readiness to undertake further steps if
necessary," UBS economist Hanspeter Hausheer said. At 3.05 pm, the
euro rose to 1.4630 sfr, up from 1.4589 at 1.45 pm, while the dollar
stood at 1.3314 sfr, little changed from 1.3330 at 1.45 pm. It
remains to be seen, whether the SNB's step will have a lasting
impact, given that economic and geopolitical factors, which are
responsible for the attractiveness of the Swiss franc vis-a-vis
other currencies, remain unchanged, he said. "Nevertheless, it might
convince the markets that the SNB intends to act (on the strength of
the Swiss franc)," he added. Moreover, should the SNB
fail to succeed, it still has other options at its disposal such as
to intervene on the forex market, Hausheer said. In the
medium term, the interest rate cut is likely to be beneficial for
the Swiss economy, although its short-term impact on the equity
market is expected to be rather limited, he added. The
SNB's decision to temporarily narrow its target range to 75 basis
points from 100 basis points, is likely to have been prompted by its
wish to avoid dropping into a negative interest rate zone, Hausheer
said. "But more important is its target to keep the
three-month Libor rate at around 0.25 pct," he said.
zurich@xxxxxxxxxxx at/jlw

Gold demand going up in Iran:From: <A
href="">http://www.mmorning.com/article.asp?Article=5044&CategoryID=6<FONT
face=Arial color=#800000 size=4>
IRAN: TURNING TO GOLD AS WAR CASTS ITS
SHADOW
Iran’s central bank has introduced measures designed to bring
down soaring gold prices, including easing procedures for the import
of gold and silver bullion, local media reports indicate.The
reports quote several officials as saying that Iranians were turning
to gold amid continued uncertainty over Iraq and the volatility of
foreign currency markets.The fluctuation in domestic gold
markets was due to a possible US attack on Iraq, which may
jeopardize the free flow oil from the region, Commerce Minister
Mohammad Shariatmadari suggested.Iranian gold coins, a favorite
for marriage portions, have risen in price from 650,000 to 800,000
rials (81.25 to 100 dollars) in the past two months.Iranian gold
lacks international standardization since much of it is
impure.Gold prices on the London Bullion Market fell last week,
extending losses to about 10 percent in just over two weeks, on a
slight easing of war fears, a dollar rebound and selling by
investment funds, analysts say. –END-
A decent gold story from the mainstream for a change:
Forbes Newsletter WatchAmid Gloom, Gold
GlittersJohn Dobosz, 03.05.03, 10:30 AM ETNEW YORK -
Grab your bullion. Gold is about to bounce back, according to top
advisers. Fresh off hitting multiyear highs a month ago, gold is now
down about 10%, to $350 per ounce. It seems that foreigners--who
continue to soak up our music and movies--are increasingly avoiding
our currency. The current geopolitical instability isn't helping
matters, and most of the close watchers of the shiny yellow metal
say it all translates into a bright future for gold.Tom
O'Brien, editor of The Gold Report, points out that the recent
pullback in gold and gold-stock prices has been on much lighter
volume than the huge run that took the metal to a $385-per-ounce
close last month. "Markets don't top on high volume," says O'Brien,
who likens the bull market under way now in gold to that in
technology stocks in the late 1990s. "This is just like Microsoft,
Dell or Cisco was in 1999--up on huge volume and then a
consolidation on lighter volume, only to come roaring back with a
vengeance."O'Brien's favorite gold stocks: Gold Fields
(nyse: GFI - news - people ) and Glamis Gold (nyse: GLG - news -
people ). Mutual funds have been big buyers of Gold Fields, says
O'Brien, and Glamis' chart is "textbook bullish" for the long
term.Curtis Hesler of Missoula, Mont.-based Professional
Timing Service sees future gold prices linked inversely and
inextricably to the value of the U.S. dollar, which has been in
decline for the last 12 months. "Gold is a dollar thing, and the
dollar is in a long-term bear market from what I can see," says
Hesler, who points out that the Federal Reserve has committed itself
to fighting deflation by inflating the money supply.Both
Hesler and O'Brien agree that gold could come down another $10 per
ounce or so, but that the long-term trend here is decidedly bullish.
Hesler recommends buying Anglogold (nyse: AU - news - people ) and
ASA (nyse: ASA - news - people ), a closed-end fund invested in
South African mining companies. Another fund he likes: Central Fund
of Canada (nyse: CEF - news - people ), which holds at least 85% in
gold and silver bullion. Hesler also likes Golden Star Resources
(amex: GSS - news - people ) and Cumberland Resources (traded on the
Toronto exchange under "CBD").One of the most intellectually
entertaining and passionate editors in weekly publication is Richard
Daughty of The Mogambu Guru. Daughty calls himself the "angriest man
in economics" and devotes a large portion of his weekly letter to
verbally mutilating the Fed for rampant inflation of the money
supply. He sees this as more fuel for the gold fire. "There is no
way, as in no freaking way in hell, that gold cannot rise in price
eventually, and with enough rise to completely offset the roaring
inflation in the money supply that we have been seeing for years
now," says Daughty. "If you are not buying gold at these prices,
then you are not competent to manage money or make economic
commentary."
-END-
*** CoinQuote ***You can fool some of the
people all of the time,And all of the people some of the
time,But you can't fool, ALL OF THE PEOPLE, ALL OF THE
TIME." -Abraham Lincoln- ** HAPPY BIRTHDAY ALAN
GREENSPAN ***** CoinMoney.com ***<FONT
face="Times New Roman"> Glenn R
Fried
A good heads up from GATA’s Andrew Hepburn (see ON THE RECORD at
The Matisse Table):Bill,Canada's sale of 15% of its gold
in February might have been an off-market transaction. Reason being,
as of October 2001 the entire reserve had been lent out to
investment banks. Attached is an email from the Bank I received to
that effect. I'm not sure if the gold was physically returned and
then sold, or if the banks just paid Canada the prevailing spot
price for the 15%. Best
Regards,AndrewAFFAIRES@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxReceived:
from mail1.bank-banque-canada.ca ([140.80.193.130])Thu, 27 Sep
2001 09:50:47 -0400Dear Mr. Hepburn:All the
government's gold reserves have been leased out to commercial banks.
The government leases out gold to earn a return on the asset.
Therefore, the gold will be leased out as long as
required.Best regards,Linda Groulx
The basis for Kelly O’Meara’s expose of the IMF was the work of
Andrew Hepburn. Good news: CNN just picked her article up:
<A
href=""><FONT
face=Arial
size=2>http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=37116051&ID=cnniw&scategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious<FONT
face=Arial size=2>
GATA’s Mike Bolser:
Hi Bill:Today's Fed Repo totals continue to fall in
accordance with the hypothesis that the PPT is letting the DOW drop
ahead of the war which now seems to be set for March 17th or sooner.
Once the hostilities begin, the Fed may add large sums of repurchase
agreements [tens of billions per day] to attempt to catalyze the DOW
upward.The larger question is whether they will release,
keep flat [As now] or try to force gold down in an effort to give
the impression that it's 1991 all over again.We know it
isn't.Kindest Regards,MikeChuck checks in:
Bill:The constant dreariness of this winter in New York is
only matched or exceeded by the persistent dreariness in this stock
market. I continue to be astounded by the lack of perception by
almost every analyst and quoteworthy money person. I keep waiting to
hear one person who has a sense that there is something beyond the
Iraqi situation that is affecting this market, but outside of Warren
Buffett, (after all, who is he?) no one has expressed any real
concern about the way the market is behaving. It is as though we
live under a dictatorship, (no comments please) and every person who
is allowed to speak must quote the same party line.
This speaks very poorly of our nation's educational system,
particularly of our preeminent universities. The same must apply to
the Nobel process which chooses so many economists from America.
But, if this blindness wasn't so pervasive, we wouldn't be at this
historic position. From what I have read of the crash of '29, only
Roger Babson, who was depicted as a fringe individual because he
trotted out his charts to show why the crash and depression was
inevitable, predicted the actual event. And the mainstream media and
economists call us looney!
When King David fled Jerusalem as his son Absalom usurped the
crown, he gathered with him a rag tag army, men of little stature
and reknown. This is a picture of some spiritual significance, but
also, I believe, of those like the Lemetropolecafe crowd who are
dismissed as fringe and unlearned compared to the great minds and
reputations of mainstream Wall Street. However, eventually, David
returned triumphantly to rule over Israel, and became a type and
forerunner of the Messiah.
Anyway, in a very short while, there will be some measure of
vindication, but it will be very bittersweet because of the tragic
effects that this event will have on many of our friends and
relatives. Many of us will be thrust into unexpected
responsibilities, but I believe that this is a very moral group who
will do what is right in the tumultuous days just ahead.
Today continued the extremely negative pattern of recent days.
Notice that the panic rally at yesterday's close was wiped out at
the opening today. All during this decline, there has been no
selling pressure to test this market, but soon it will come, and the
soft underbelly of this market will be exposed. I don't know if it
will be an event or because the last buyer has completed his buying,
but it is coming very, very soon. Today, the German market broke
down again. If you can find a chart of it, you will see that it has
entered no man's land, and I have no doubt tht the Dow will be
following on its heels.
The big question to the gold people will be how will gold and the
shares will behave during this collapse. It has become a fascinating
question as the metal has held up, but the shares continue to be
soft. Perhaps, they will sell off initially as the deflationary
pressure takes everything only to explode as the financial structure
begins to totter and shake. At this point, I can make a case for
almost anything. The most certain thing is that we are ready to
enter a decline that will define the rest of our lifetime. Just as
we who are old enough remember where we were at President Kennedy's
assassination and, most recently, the tragedy at the Trade Center,
this event, I believe, will be that memorable because the world as
we now know it will be changed forever.
Again, if I can be of any help on a professional or consulting
basis, please let me know. Chuck IKIECOHEN@xxxxxxx

The gold share action remains bizarre. On a significant up day
for gold, they fell further behind the bullion price. The XAU
dropped .38 to 69.74. The HUI was much worse, closing at 128.56,
down 1.40. There is almost a zero understanding in the investment
world about what this gold market is all about. Just when I think
the gold/investment world cannot get more clueless, they do. It is
setting up a move to the upside of EPIC proportions. One day the
light bulb is going to go off and EVERYONE will want in at the same
time!!!!!!!
MIDAS
(Hello Formetrix, Inc.: where do I apply your Café membership
check?)

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William J. Murphy III is the Chairman of the Gold Anti-Trust Action
Committee and owner of www.LeMetropoleCafe.com. A graduate of the School
of Hotel Administration at Cornell University in 1968, he went to become a
starting wide receiver with the Boston Patriots of the American Football
League. Mr. Murphy, who now resides in Dallas, Texas, spent much of his
business career in the Futures Industry with such firms as Drexel Burnham
and Shearson Hayden Stone. Today, he writes gold market commentary for his
financial web site that features the precious metals and contrarian
economic analysis.

<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Brad
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: dspm
[mailto:dspm02@xxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Monday, March 10, 2003 9:19
AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT]
GoldI stopped being bullish on gold a couple of weeks
ago as soon as I started seeing TV ads urging the public to buy gold and
gold options. Smart money was trying to sell./GregIra
wrote:> There is something going on that doesn't seem to tally with
what we are > reading in the papers and hearing on the telly. A
look at gold stocks > and the future seem to indicate, either that
there will be no war or it > is going to start and be over real
soon. The currencies seem to have > run out of steam for the time
being also. > > > > If gold stock prices
precede the metal, then gold is due for another > major fall.
IraTo
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