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Hi Jim
Can you please tell me where can I learn more/download some material
about Hurst channels?
Thanks
Claudio
--- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jim Curry" <jim@xxxx> wrote:
> The SPX has - for now - failed to break last week's swing low of
817. The 15 day cycle is now 14 trading days along and could bottom
any time. Ideally, what we would have liked to have seen (though it
could still be out there over the next day or two) is the 15 day
cycle taking us below 817 - or even below 806 on this move. Chart
below shows the 15 day cycle, also the price channel the component
is in.
>
> The reason that the 15 day cycle is having problems taking this
thing on down is that the 30 day cycle is in the topping phase. So
here you have the two shortest-term daily cycles in direct
opposition. The 15 day cycle is running out of time to take this
thing to new swing lows - if it is not seen in the next session or
three then the cycle will give us another sharp/quick pop higher.
Since the cycle can very from 11-20 days there is no way to know for
certain what will happen over the few sessions, even though the
bigger picture remains very bearish against the 853 region - though
you can see from the chart on page 1 that the top of the channel
that encloses the 15 day cycle is now near 846 SPX CASH. We would
not really even want to see this area closed above if we are going
to continue on down. The 'cycle' itself is shown on the bottom of
the chart - and again price will not turn on a dime just because the
cycle itself is nearing a low; if the cycle extends the low then we
will bottom from lower levels. The 80/20 rule says that 80% of a
cycle's price drop will come in the last 20% of it's phase. For now
the best we can say is that below 846-853 SPX CASH and we have to
look for lower prices over the near-term.
>
> Otherwise, bigger picture will see all of this choppiness soon
come to an end. Once the 15 day bottoms and then turns higher for a
few days then the 30 day will be starting lower - and the down
pressure from the larger 60 day cycle will also soon start to take
over - and should take this thing on down to new swing lows below
806. For now look for a bit more frustration until all the cycles
get in sync in the same direction.
>
>
> ---
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