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A number of intelligent folks equate the 2000 top
with the 1929 top. Ittook a quarter century for the DJIA to exceed the '29
high, and a decade anda half to convinvingly break out above the 1000
ceiling after the '66 top.
Some seem to think Oct lows marked the halfway point in
time and price for this bear
market. Others expect a 4 year extension of the bear
market.The way I read cycles, the 2002 bottom correlates with the
1942 and 1962bottoms. All three are final lows of the first 20 year
components of 40 yearcycles. After 1942 and 1962, the first 4 year component
of the succeeding 20year cycle extended the topping process of their 40 year
cycles and producednew DJIA highs (a right translation of the 40 year
cycles). Over the past 80years, the first 4 year component of every 20 year
cycle has trendedstrongly up. -See attachment-Can someone give me a
sound cyclical basis for the expectation that it willbe different this time?
Have cycles stopped working? Am I missing something?
For all the predictions of eminent crashes
expressed on this forum across the top, theDJIA is essentially where it was
4 years ago (down 34% from its high top).The1929top which was
characterized by a parabolic rise followed by a severe dropwhich took
90% out of the DJIA by 1932. The move into the 2000 DJIA high, which
wasdecidedly non-parabolic, was followed by a broadening top
formation.
Equivalence to 1929 would require a DJIA drop to 1200 in
2003.
Just my 4 cents --Stan
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Attachment:
DJIA_FirstFourYearPattern.gif
Attachment:
Description: "Description: GIF image"
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