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I haven't a clue. If push comes to shove; I see no reason that it could not
happen again. Just
a common sense opinion.....I hope. (:-)
chas
----- Original Message -----
From: ira <mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, January 21, 2003 10:50 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] December Home Starts Rise 5%
> Do you think they might go back to paying you to take out loans like they
> did in the 30s. During that period real estate sales people and others
were
> paid by the banks to bring in loan applicants.
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Charles Meyer" <chaze@xxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, January 21, 2003 8:14 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] December Home Starts Rise 5%
>
>
> > This is only one factor in the mix; which is the real estate market.
> There
> > are other important
> > factors in the equation such as inductrial production, capacity
> utilization,
> > and consumer
> > spending. At some point the bonus from refinancing due to lowering of
> rates
> > has to peter out.
> >
> > chas
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: <tradewynne@xxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Tuesday, January 21, 2003 10:09 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] December Home Starts Rise 5%
> >
> >
> > > > Just a wild guess; but I suspect the credit environment (interest
> > > rate picture/structure) was a lot different in the 30's.
> > >
> > > Foe sure, rates are mentioned at the link, but wouldn't that be a
> > > factor in NOT replaying the 30's?
> > >
> > > BW
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Charles Meyer" <chaze@xxxx>
> > > wrote:
> > > > Just a wild guess; but I suspect the credit environment (interest
> > > rate
> > > > picture/structure) was a
> > > > lot different in the 30's. Recently there has been a lot of
> > > refinancing so
> > > > that may account for this
> > > > activity? Again; just a wild guess; and maybe someone qualified
> > > could chim
> > > > in on your question.
> > > >
> > > > chas
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: <tradewynne@xxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Tuesday, January 21, 2003 9:46 AM
> > > > Subject: [RT] December Home Starts Rise 5%
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > http://www.bloomberg.com/bbn/index.html
> > > > >
> > > > > "01/21 08:53
> > > > > U.S. December Home Starts Rise 5% to 1.835 Mln Pace (Update1)
> > > > > By Siobhan Hughes
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Washington, Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. home construction
> > > > > unexpectedly surged in December, completing the best year for the
> > > > > industry since 1986, as housing helps bolster the economy.
> > > > >
> > > > > Builders broke ground on new homes at an annual pace of 1.835
> > > million
> > > > > units, the fastest since June 1986, the Commerce Department said.
> > > > > That was up 5 percent from November's revised 1.747 million pace
> > > and
> > > > > exceeded expectations of a 1.68 million- unit rate.
> > > > >
> > > > > Some 1.705 million homes were started last year, the most in 16
> > > > > years..."
> > > > >
> > > > > I'm not a fundementals / news guy, but I'm curious how the doom
> > > and
> > > > > gloomers see this. Were there "pops" like that in the early 1930's
> > > > > several years into that bear?
> > > > >
> > > > > I really don't know, just asking.
> > > > >
> > > > > BW
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
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> > > > >
> > > > >
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> >
> >
> >
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