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I am seeing cup and handle formations in nearly all of the major equity
indexes. Then NASDAQ has already completed a higher high and this move up
has been nicely confirmed by all 3 NASDAQ breadth models: issues, high/low,
and volume. The OEX actually managed to break out above the weekly bear
market trendline before pulling back. The NYSE has been the weak link in the
rally with non-confirming On Balance Volume and modest divergences in the
breadth models. Recently, the market has been handling bad news quite well.
Finally, all indexes were overbought on momentum indicators. External
indicators have been a bit positive: SP COT commercials substantially
lightened short positions last week (this week's should prove illuminating),
put/call remains constructive, and VIX has been moving back up.
Had the markets attempted to breakout from recent levels, I would have been
aggressively shorting the breakout. I view this decline as constructive as
long as it does not get out of hand. My current view is that the market will
move down into the Friday/Tuesday date confluence (closed Monday), then
rally strongly into mid-February. This is an inversion to what I had
expected, however one must follow the market's lead. I will be looking for
good support and long entries in the SPX 900 range. If all falls into place,
it may be an unexpected piece of good news which tilts the market into a
strong rally. If 954 is taken out, I believe it will be Katy bar the door
for a very fast move.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "ira" <mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "REAL TRADERS" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, January 16, 2003 9:09 PM
Subject: [RT] Market
Looking at many of the charts, I don't know if I would want to be short
going into tomorrow.
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