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See attached hourly volume at the end of the trading day. An improvement but
not overwhelming. A/D volumes ended nicely at 5:1 NYSE and 7:1 NASDAQ but
again not overwhelming. I would rate the day constructive. The longer price
coils under 931 without taking it out (and without deteriorating), the
stronger the move through 931 should be.
Attached is AGet's view. The low (under 35) PTI of 25 suggests W.5 will fail
(bearish). The W.4 decline through the red channel (near the "A") is also
bearish. However the combination often indicates that the W.4 will
eventually be relabeled as a W.2. This is bullish because W.2 corrections
are followed by W.3 impulsive moves. In the bigger picture ... if we do
rally, I expect that this rally will turn out to be a terminal W.C (of an
ABC beginning at the October lows) which unfolds in 5 waves from the 869
low. The W.C targets are shown as 984 (minimum), 1055 (probable), and 1170
(extended).
Supporting the bullish case is the close above the middle of the regression
channel. Note that price closed smack up against the trendline from the 954
high. Only a W.3 impulsive move would be capable of punching through the
series of lower highs just overhead.
Caveat: we are in a major cyclical bear market so expect nothing on the
upside and be grateful for what you get. The move above 954 must occur
quickly (within a week or so) or the shorts will move aggressively to regain
control.
Earl
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