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Hi Bob,
Thanks for this post. I'm curious as to how
you developed this system and why you don't trade it anymore (other than
boredom).
Good luck and good trading,
Ray Raffurty
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
BobR
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, January 07, 2003 4:08
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] setups
Here is a rough draft from memory of how I traded
it a few years back. Some may recall statements being posted on
rt.
It is a discretionary, read not proprietary and
not coded, system. Thus it may be difficult to duplicate, but here
goes:
Requires a realtime datafeed, online broker with
discount commissions, and realtime OPRA with no funny stuff like BMI used to
do with options..Set up a chart with the 5 minute OEX in subgraph one.
TICK in subgraph 2 with 5 lines at zero, +400, -400, +600, -600. Put the
PREM in subgraph3 with the fair value, buy level, sell level lines, updated
each day. The CNBC levels worked good, the w.programtrading levels
didn't and seemed to be more useful for breakouts than
cycletrading.
1. Determine the daily trend of the OEX midpoint,
or the pivot trend, has it been going up or down.
2. Make entries using at the money or one strike
out options in the direction of the trend, but make the entries on
pullbacks against the trend, thus your entries are in sync with the MM's and
not the general public.
2a. Trades can be made against the trend with
lower expectations of profit.
3. Apply classical pivots and fib pivots to the
OEX. Use a combination of the standard daily pivot and S/R levels along
with the FibonacciTrader half range, 0.618 range, range levels for "fuzzy"
entry levels, meaning close enough is good enough. Some days the
standard S/R levels are hit and other days the FT levels are dominant.
Seems to very depending on whether everyone is trading or if there is a
holiday period coming up or just finishing.
4. Wait ~30 minutes after the cash open to make
the first trade.
5. Visualize a time sector at the top of the hour
and bottom of the hour(using a circular 12 hour clock).
6. Enter puts in the time sector at the
top of the hour and enter calls in the time sector at the bottom of the
hour. This puts the odds in your favor of being profitable for a short
period of time. You might use a fast oscillator as price approaches an
S/R level, I didn't.
6a. Toggle the bid/ask quotes during the time
sector and watch for a change or peak in sentiment.
7. Monitor the TICK and PREM to determine the
quality(inhalation/exhalation) of price trend during those sectors and as
confirmation of intraday trend change. There is a dominant 30 minute
half cycle in existance on many days.
When the power players are in the
game, the sector is wide(~+,- 10 minutes) and you can see money coming in
and leaving at the top and bottom of the hour plus minus about ten
minutes. When the sector is narrow(~+,-6 minutes) and the prem and tick
are inconclusive the trend is weak and there might not be enough followthrough
to be profitable. Put entries on strong bullish days come
after the top of the hour, and on weak days the deterioration begins before
the top of the hour. Likewise for calls at the bottom of the
hour.
8. Trade 5 contracts to start with and set a
minimum daily goal of $500.
9. Look for a one point gain from the Ask
entry to the Bid exit(only trade long calls and long puts). Once you get
the one point gain, don't give it back. Move your stop as the option
goes more in the money.
10. Don't hold overnight, and especially
don't hold over weekends or holidays to avoid time decay, volatility change,
and premium adjustments.
11. Increase the number of contracts as the
account grows.
12. Don't overtrade, two to four roundtrip
trades would not be overtrading.
That's pretty much it. Grind it out
day after day. Use stops based on the option premium. Since you
are daytrading, time decay will not be significant unless you get into or out
of a trade too close to the open or close of the day when they are
adjusted. Be wary of premium changes on Friday close and Monday
open. Thus wait at least 15 to 30 minutes after the open and be careful
going into the close. If the trend is strong and with your
trade you can play closer to the close. This is more significant
during expiration week which gives you the best trades because of the gamma
effect. Just be sure you know what you are doing and what the name of
the game is. No doubt there will be controversy about this system, and
it could be improved with additional timing tools.
bobr
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Ray
Raffurty
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, January 05, 2003 3:08
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] setups
Hi Bob,
You wrote "<FONT face="Courier New"
size=3>I had an options system that could quintuple the account in 5 weeks
of OEX trading. It was so boring I quite trading
it.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=3>
Sent it to me
{;-)
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=3>
Good luck and
good trading,
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=3>
Ray
Raffurty
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
<A title=bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>BobR
To: <A
title=MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ;
<A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, January 07, 2003 2:19
PM
Subject: [RT] setups
OK, this is the setup I am looking at for a long
exit/short entry. Todaymarks the 4th day of a positive NDX net
percent up down volume (up -down)/total. A lower high on the 4th
bar of a 4 bar set with a higher highon the NDX may be a prelude to a
down day the next day...at least that isthe thesis being
examined. Perhaps it is reinventing the wheel, butdiscovery sure
is fun as is the journey. I had an options system that
couldquintuple the account in 5 weeks of OEX trading. It was so
boring I quitetrading it, |;-) .bobrTo
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