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Thank you, Bob. I am going to try the .5-.7 in uptrend and .2-.5 in down
trend.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, January 07, 2003 6:08 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Put Call Ratio (with corrected SP cash)
Attached are a couple of end of day charts. One is the $C/($C+$P)composite
of the AMEX, CBOE, PSE, PHLX.
It is a noisy ratio and could use some smoothing for sure.
Here are some ways to look at the Composite dollar weighted ratio.
In index uptrends the ratio swings moreso between 0.5 and 0.7.
In index downtrends the ratio swings between 0.5 and 0.2.
The ratio may peak before the index peaks and then forms a divergence as
price peaks.
Likewise at price bottoms a divergence may occur, or may be coincident.
If anything, the extreme levels of 0.7 and 0.3 should be warning flags on
the dollar weighted ratio.
The second chart is the CBOE Equity Call / Put ratio with some 21 period
Bollenger Bands with +,- 1 std dev that help define the extremes.
----- Original Message -----
From: EarlA
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, January 07, 2003 4:10 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Put Call Ratio (with corrected SP cash)
Sorry, the first charts contained incorrect plot for the SP.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "EarlA" <earl.a@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, January 07, 2003 5:05 PM
Subject: [RT] Put Call Ratio
> Bob, I've never been able to get much from using P/C as a timing
indicator
> but I keep looking. I gave your formula a spin. Attached Daily and 60
minute
> charts are from QCharts:
>
> Black: QC:CallVal /(QC:CallVal +QC:PutVal)
> Blue: S&P Close price
>
> I don't see a strong correlation between tops and bottoms in the P/C and
> S&P. Am I missing something here? Is there more to using this than
simple
> matching extremes?
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, January 07, 2003 3:50 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] setups
>
>
> Good observation and good question. Sentiment has been something I've
> worked on to better pick the trades than time and support/resistance and
to
> add positon trading to the daytrading activity. Here is one chart that
> might answer your question about sentiment from a contrary point of
view.
>
> Another short setup occurs when the dollar weighted $C/($C+$P)
composite(red
> line) reaches the 0.7 to 0.75 level as it did late on Tuesday. Such a
level
> can represent too much bullishness, or the end of bullishness if it
occurs
> at the end of an uptrend. In either case it increases the odds of
> consolidation and or price erosion in the near future. This level comes
> after a less than 0.25 ratio low on 12/27. This also completes a 6 day
> runup in call premium and rundown in put premium. Such high levels are
seen
> at index high pivot points. Its just kinda comforting to know what the
> environment is.
>
>
> bobr
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Kent Rollins
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Tuesday, January 07, 2003 2:22 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] setups
>
>
> I've seen many, many people drawing head-and-shoulders formations
> (non-inverted) on daily charts of the last month or so. Not just in
this
> forum but also on free and pay sites. Aren't H&S formations supposed
to
> be
> topping formations, not intermediate bear market formations? And if
those
> same people tried, could they find and inverted H&S formation on the
> current
> daily/weekly charts? What does this say about market sentiment?
>
> Kent
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, January 07, 2003 2:19 PM
> Subject: [RT] setups
>
>
> OK, this is the setup I am looking at for a long exit/short entry.
Today
> marks the 4th day of a positive NDX net percent up down volume (up -
> down)/total. A lower high on the 4th bar of a 4 bar set with a higher
> high
> on the NDX may be a prelude to a down day the next day...at least that
is
> the thesis being examined. Perhaps it is reinventing the wheel, but
> discovery sure is fun as is the journey. I had an options system that
> could
> quintuple the account in 5 weeks of OEX trading. It was so boring I
quite
> trading it, |;-) .
>
> bobr
>
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