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Sorry, I see those were mis-labeled. The blue line is September 2003 and the
magenta line is October 2004. The red line was correctly labeled as May
2009.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "profitok" <profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, January 01, 2003 8:50 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Uncovered Puts
> Hello Earl
> very informative
> Can you tell the time where the blue line and pink line are in 2003?(the
> ones to the right end of the chart)
> thanks
> happy new year
> Ben
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "EarlA" <earl.a@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, January 01, 2003 12:15 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Uncovered Puts
>
>
> > There is no new driver, just the same old driver, although he is showing
> > more signs of fatigue. I don't have my older "big picture" posts handy,
> > however they should be in the archives for anyone interested. Bottom
line
> is
> > that very little has really changed in the big picture during the past
> > several years to pave the way for economic and business prosperity. Yes,
> > some of the air has come out, but not nearly enough to radically alter
the
> > bull market belief system of continuous, unlimited, and effortless
> > prosperity for all. I will remain bearish until a lot more air has been
> let
> > out of the equity, housing, credit, and consumption (especially import)
> > markets.
> >
> > I have mentioned many times here that such a great bull market can only
be
> > corrected by a combination of price and time. I attach my chart of the
S&P
> > 500 showing time and price retracements ... the chart hasn't really
> changed
> > much from the last time I posted it. Yes, the Fed and the politicians
will
> > do all they can to prolong the party, however prolonging the party will
> only
> > make the hangover that much greater. Time and price in combination will
> not
> > be denied!
> >
> > More specifically to the shorter term, I am sensing fatigue on the part
of
> > the consumer and on the part of the Fed. Further, fatigue is not just in
> the
> > US, it is global and there is no other Great Consumer which is going to
> bail
> > out the world by consuming excess goods and services. Even looking to
the
> > country receiving the best "hot growth" press, I am recently reading of
> > severe limits on depositor withdrawals from the banking system ... it is
> > never a good omen when the banking system is in trouble. That country is
> > China! I also believe that military operations in the Middle East are
> going
> > to be far more difficult and prolonged than widely believed. The people
of
> > Iraq and surrounding countries are just not going to kneel down in front
> of
> > the US military even though they may not mount overt and concerted
> > resistance. A home grown despot is always preferable to foreign rule and
> > occupation. Make no mistake, the plans are to occupy Iraq and use it as
a
> > platform to carry out operations throughout the Middle East while
pumping
> as
> > much oil as possible.
> >
> > Getting really short term, the price charts are looking fatigued.
Advisor
> > sentiment has returned to extreme bullish (bearish) levels. The SP
> > commercials are once again loading the boats with SP short positions.
(The
> > SP commercials very adroitly load their boats to the gunnels well in
> advance
> > of the bear and then unloaded into the pre-election rally engineered by
> the
> > policy makers.) Need I mention that there is still a lot of crap on the
> > corporate books, especially outlandish pension plan projections? I
figure
> we
> > have anywhere from a few days to a month before the bear resumes in
> earnest.
> >
> > Bottom line? The next (interim) bear market bottom is probably 3-6
months
> > away, although it is possible we could get a major bottom if the policy
> > makers leave the market alone. The real bottom of the bear is some
> > combination of 500+- SP points and 7 years away. The next major bull
> market
> > is probably 15+- years away. This remains an extremely dangerous equity
> > market suitable only for nimble traders.
> >
> > Earl
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "sue crew" <screwy@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Wednesday, January 01, 2003 2:51 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Uncovered Puts
> >
> >
> > > Earl what do you think will be the main driver for a big move down, in
> > > equity markets.?
> > >
> > > cheers
> > >
> > > sue
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > EarlA wrote:
> > >
> > > >The income sounds nice, however I don't envy your exposure to another
> > major
> > > >leg down and I believe it is coming and coming soon (within the next
> 3-6
> > > >months). Many of these stocks appear to either be resuming major
> declines
> > > >(e.g. S) or topping out in bearish formations (e.g. EXC). The only
> > question
> > > >on my table is "when" not "if". Keep your fingers crossed and hope
you
> > make
> > > >it through January expiration.
> > > >
> > > >Earl
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
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>
>
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>
>
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